Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models
Description
Discover the complex economic models shaping fiscal advice at The Treasury. This review explores the critical recommendation to move away from the current 3-phase forecasting approach and embed a new, high-priority macro-econometric model for projections that must span greatly varying time horizons, from two up to 41 years. We analyze the crucial roadmap for the Revenue Group, focusing on upgrading its capability to use the detailed CGETAX model for analyzing tax policy impacts (covering up to twelve categories of tax). Learn why linking this CGE analysis with microsimulation models like CAPITA and PRISMOD.DIST is recommended for consistency in assessing both economic efficiency and household equity impacts. Finally, find out why Overlapping Generations (OLG) models are a medium priority for the Fiscal Group, as they are crucial tools for scenario analysis concerning intergenerational issues like retirement incomes and public debt policies.
United States
