Money Tree Investing

Private credit could be the next black swan and we're going to break it down for you. We also discuss the ongoing war and how geopolitical uncertainty is affecting financial markets, investor psychology, and economic conditions. Misinformation, AI-generated content, and media bias make it difficult to know what is actually happening amidst the "fog of war", which increases market uncertainty. Markets have reacted with volatility rather than a sharp crash, highlighting unexpected moves such as a stronger U.S. dollar, mixed performance across sectors, and spikes in oil prices that could fuel inflation. Risk management is of the upmost importance during uncertain periods and investors should reassess their theses, reduce exposure when necessary, and consider holding cash until clearer trends emerge. We also talk broader economic risks including rising credit balances, potential policy mistakes by central banks, and structural concerns in areas like private credit and financial sector exposure. We discuss...  The ongoing war has created uncertainty and a wide range of opinions about its political and economic implications. The S&P 500 has only modestly declined so far, suggesting markets have not fully priced in the potential risks. Traditional market expectations have been challenged, such as the U.S. dollar strengthening instead of weakening. Oil prices have spiked due to geopolitical tensions, raising concerns about inflation and broader economic impacts. Energy has been the strongest-performing sector while many other sectors have struggled. Risk management should come before return-seeking when uncertainty is high. Investors should not hesitate to move to cash when market conditions become unclear. Crowded trades in war-related assets like energy, defense, and gold could reverse if sentiment shifts. The potential for consumer stress is highlighted, including rising credit card balances and higher costs from energy prices. Rising mortgage rates are a factor that could freeze housing activity during the spring selling season. Geopolitical risk is increasingly being priced into markets after years of relative stability. The current environment may represent a shift away from the low-rate, liquidity-driven market regime of the past decade. Policy mistakes by governments or central banks could become a bigger risk than the war itself. There are potential risks in the private credit sector, particularly due to limited regulation and transparency. Private credit has replaced some traditional bank lending since the 2008 financial crisis. Redemption freezes in private credit funds could signal stress in the system. Patience, discipline, and careful portfolio management are essential during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-next-black-swan-799 

Jade Miller is here to discuss the pros and cons of alternative investments. Jade shares her journey to becoming the CEO of the Alternative & Direct Investment Securities Association (ADISA), her background in private markets, and ADISA's role in advocating for and expanding access to alternatives for financial advisors and investors. We explore the growing push to include alternative investments in 401(k) plans, investor misunderstanding, and potential regulatory challenges. We also talk the importance of thorough due diligence, common red flags, and the need for greater transparency from fund managers.  We discuss... Jade Miller discusses her background in private markets, primarily real estate, and her transition to becoming the first CEO of the ADISA. ADISA's mission is to advocate for alternative investments, provide education and due diligence standards, and connect financial advisors with alternative investment managers. The alternatives industry is shifting from limited access for wealthy investors toward broader availability, including potential inclusion in 401(k) retirement plans. Large institutional managers are likely to dominate 401(k) alternative offerings rather than smaller private fund sponsors. Liquidity constraints and fund structures such as interval and tender-offer funds will likely shape how alternatives are implemented inside retirement plans. Illiquid investments in retirement accounts can carry a higher risk of fraud or poor diligence because the capital is often locked up for long periods. Increased transparency and reporting expectations from investors are pushing alternative fund managers to provide more detailed disclosures. Financial advisors play a key role in helping investors assess alternative opportunities and navigate complex investment structures. Unrealistically high projected returns and lightly vetted crowdfunding deals can be major warning signs for investors. Real estate is highlighted as a foundational alternative asset due to its tangible nature, income potential, and long-term demand. Alternative investments can offer meaningful tax advantages, including depreciation benefits, opportunity zone incentives, and oil and gas deductions. Roth conversion strategies can sometimes be enhanced through private investments that temporarily reduce valuation during development stages. Investors and financial advisors who ignore alternative investments risk falling behind as the asset class becomes a larger part of diversified portfolios.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Marc Walton | Forex Mentor Pro Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

There's war in the middle east and there will be huge impacts on your portfolio! Today we talk about how war-related uncertainty and conflicting economic signals are creating unusual market behavior, making it difficult for investors to interpret short-term movements. Broad market declines across many asset classes can indicate de-leveraging rather than money simply rotating elsewhere, and geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, weakening job data, and potential stagflation risks are adding pressure to the economy. While some sector rotation into energy, commodities, and defensive assets is occurring, be wary that wartime conditions disrupt normal market trends, making strategies like "buying the dip" risky. Now is the time for risk management as preserving capital during periods of uncertainty is often more important than trying to time short-term market moves.  We discuss... How misinformation, AI-generated content, and limited reliable sources make it difficult to understand what is actually happening during geopolitical conflicts. How negative political messaging often backfires psychologically because the human brain tends to ignore the word "not" and focus on the core concept. The unusually volatile week in markets, where prices swung sharply day-to-day despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Markets do not always react logically to major events like wars, with assets sometimes moving in unexpected directions. A key explanation for broad market declines was de-leveraging, where leveraged positions are unwound and excess liquidity effectively disappears from the system. Investors rarely know the full reasons behind short-term market movements because many institutional trades occur behind the scenes. "Buying the dip" works in bull markets but can lead to significant losses during bear markets or uncertain environments. During wartime conditions traditional market frameworks often break down, making predictions especially unreliable. Reduce risk exposure and avoid aggressive trades until geopolitical uncertainty becomes clearer. Recent economic data show job losses and rising unemployment, which adds pressure to an already fragile economic outlook. Capital is rotating into defensive areas such as energy, commodities, defense stocks, and gold. Market rotations are normal in healthy markets but can become distorted when geopolitical shocks occur. Holding cash can be a strategic decision during uncertain markets rather than a missed opportunity. How falling interest rates could eventually lower mortgage rates and trigger more activity in the housing market. Investors should focus on protecting capital and managing downside risk during periods of extreme uncertainty.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investors-are-fleeing-into-this-sector-797 

Jose Mayora, author of Wall Street's Blind Spots, a new book about the realities of value investing in a market dominated by mega-cap growth stocks, explains that true value investing is not about low P/E ratios but about buying businesses at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value. He emphasizes disciplined, bottom-up research, geographic and sector diversification, and concentrated portfolios to uncover overlooked opportunities. We also explore the psychological challenges of investing through crashes and euphoric markets, the tension between patience and performance when managing other people's money, and the risks of over-investment.  We discuss...  Jose Mayora shares his background in investment banking, economics, earning the CFA, and co-founding DeVita Valley Growth Fund with a disciplined value-oriented philosophy. The discussion highlights how traditional value strategies have lagged during the dominance of mega-cap tech stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," over the past decade. Mayora emphasizes that avoiding high-multiple stocks purely on valuation optics can cause investors to miss strong businesses compounding at high rates. The conversation underscores the importance of remaining impartial and avoiding confirmation bias from sell-side research, headlines, or popular narratives. Mayora argues that concentrated portfolios of 10–16 positions are more realistic for true value investing, as finding dozens of genuine bargains in expensive markets is unlikely. We examine how broad market crashes create opportunity because markets become indiscriminate, often punishing high-quality companies alongside weaker ones. Historical examples like Google during the 2008–2009 crisis illustrate how strong businesses temporarily trade at compelling valuations during downturns. The psychological challenge of buying low-quality "junk" stocks for sharper rebounds versus sticking with durable high-quality companies is debated. They discuss how long recoveries—such as after the dot-com crash—can test investor patience even when valuations are compelling. Mayora explains that maintaining close communication and philosophical alignment with investors helps navigate inevitable periods of underperformance. They debate missed opportunities in large-cap tech and the difficulty of staying disciplined when high-momentum stocks dominate returns. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Marc Walton | MarcWalton.com Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/wall-street-blind-spots-jose-mayora-796 

There is a sector rotation happening and today we're here to discuss it! We also touch on the sudden U.S. conflict with Iran as this is not the time to start reacting emotionally to early headlines, misinformation, and media fear cycles. Keep in mind historical market reactions to prior military strikes; while volatility typically spikes, equity drawdowns have historically been modest and short-lived unless oil supply or credit markets break down. We also highlight that markets are driven more by liquidity and capital flows than headlines and investors should focus on historical patterns, sector positioning, bond duration strategy, and risk management rather than panic, while closely watching oil prices, credit spreads, and bond yields for signs of deeper systemic stress.  We discuss... The concept of the "fog of war," warning listeners not to trust early reports, viral videos, or emotionally charged headlines. Media outlets monetize fear and that investors should avoid panic-driven decisions. Historical data from past U.S. military strikes was reviewed, showing that market drawdowns are typically modest and short-lived. Oil prices spiked on geopolitical risk, but the move was framed as a fear premium rather than confirmed supply disruption. The U.S. dollar was expected to strengthen in the short term as capital seeks safe-haven assets. Sector rotation was highlighted, with money moving out of mega-cap tech and into energy, materials, and defensive sectors. Utilities, staples, and healthcare were identified as traditional late-cycle or risk-off sectors. If capital exits large tech allocations, there are limited sectors large enough to absorb those flows without major price distortions. Bonds were presented as increasingly attractive if interest rates begin to decline. Long-duration bonds tend to benefit most when yields fall due to the inverse price-yield relationship. Lower mortgage rates were projected as a possibility, which could reignite housing demand but also drive home prices higher again. Markets are driven more by liquidity and money flows than by headlines or fundamentals alone. Investors should focus on second- and third-order effects rather than reacting to the immediate shock of war. Credit spreads, bond yields, and oil prices are key indicators to monitor for signs of systemic stress. Remain disciplined, historically grounded, and risk-aware rather than emotionally reactive.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/sector-rotation-795

The silver party is just beginning as precious metals expert David Morgan shares his journey from early fascination with silver coin debasement to becoming a long-time financial analyst focused on the silver market. Morgan argues that silver is widely misunderstood as merely speculative, emphasizing instead its critical industrial role in AI, EVs, solar, and advanced technologies amid a structural supply deficit and declining mine output. We explore alleged market manipulation through paper derivatives and "spoofing," the growing influence of physical demand over futures pricing, and why mining stocks may be significantly undervalued relative to rising silver prices. We also deep dive into Bitcoin's impact on precious metals demand, skepticism around crypto's "freedom" narrative, and broader reflections on monetary systems, inflation, and personal responsibility in navigating an uncertain financial future. We discuss... David shares how the removal of silver from U.S. coinage sparked his lifelong interest in sound money and finance. He argues silver is strategically indispensable due to rising industrial demand from AI, EVs, solar, and advanced technologies. Global silver supply has been flat to declining since 2016, creating a multi-year structural deficit. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of base metal mining, limiting the incentive to increase supply. David explains that silver trades largely as a paper derivatives market, which can suppress price discovery. Recent price spikes may signal a shift from paper-driven pricing to physical supply constraints in industrial bars. Retail investors have largely been selling into strength, while industrial demand has driven the latest rally. Mining stocks appear undervalued relative to higher silver prices, offering potential leverage to the upside. The discussion highlights how value investors and major funds may eventually rotate into precious metals equities. David suggests Bitcoin has evolved away from its original decentralization narrative and is now institutionally influenced. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Diana Perkins | Trading With Diana Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-silver-party-is-just-beginning-david-morgan-794 

Do you want to know investment success secrets? Look no further than today's discussion! The long-dominant "buy the Magnificent 7 and forget it" tech trade is fading, with sector rotation favoring energy, materials, and staples while technology and discretionary lag. Drawing on presidential cycle data, it seems markets often experience weakness and corrections in midterm years before potential strength later, though today's backdrop of sticky inflation, high debt, and constrained Federal Reserve policy could challenge historical norms. Liquidity over politics is the true market driver and power preservation incentives may shape fiscal and economic decisions and highlights opportunities in defensive sectors and fixed income if rates fall. As always, disciplined investing is the most important: avoid ego, abandon rigid outcome-based predictions, adopt scenario-based thinking, respect price action, and define in advance when you are wrong. We discuss... The long-standing strategy of simply buying mega-cap tech stocks is breaking down as sector leadership rotates. Energy, materials, and staples are outperforming while technology and discretionary stocks lag, signaling possible market-top behavior. Historical sector rotation patterns suggest markets may be transitioning from expansion toward a late-cycle phase. Midterm presidential years historically bring volatility and frequent 10–20% corrections before potential recovery. Liquidity is framed as the primary force driving market cycles. Today's environment of sticky inflation, high debt, and constrained Federal Reserve policy may weaken the reliability of historical patterns. Defensive sectors and fixed income could benefit if growth slows and interest rates decline. Political incentives around power preservation may influence fiscal decisions and economic optics heading into elections. Investors are warned not to blindly "buy the dip," especially in volatile assets like crypto. The hosts stress that price action ultimately determines whether an investment thesis is right or wrong. Ego and overconfidence are identified as major threats to long-term investing success. Outcome-based thinking is discouraged in favor of scenario-based planning across multiple probable outcomes. Behavioral research shows experts often double down when wrong, reinforcing the importance of flexibility. Successful investing requires humility, adaptability, risk management, and clearly defined exit strategies.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.cominvesting-success-secrets-793  

Tom Hoffman shares the Family Private Enterprise Model for business succession. As an attorney and CPA at Knox Law Firm, Tom discusses his 30+ years of experience in business succession, complex estate planning, and asset protection, focusing on how families can successfully transition businesses across generations. He explains that while most owners want to keep their companies in the family, few heirs are truly prepared to lead, making clarity of goals, fairness (not necessarily equality), and strong communication essential to preserving family harmony. Tom outlines common pitfalls such as forcing children into roles they don't want or failing to define objectives early. He also contrasts selling versus retaining the business, highlighting tax implications, the risks of dissipating liquid wealth, the role of family offices and trusts in preserving capital, and the broader community impact of keeping businesses local. We discuss... While about 70% of owners want to keep their business in the family, only 20–25% of children are typically prepared to lead it. Succession planning should start with clearly defining the family's goals rather than jumping straight into structural decisions. Fairness in dividing assets does not always mean equality, especially when some children work in the business and others do not. Lack of communication is the primary driver of family conflict during transitions. "Self-realization" conversations help family members come to their own conclusions about what is fair, preserving harmony. Outside consultants and counselors are often necessary when emotional, mental health, or substance issues complicate planning. Forcing children into leadership roles they do not want can create long-term personal and business damage. Hiring a professional outside CEO can dramatically improve performance and free the senior generation from daily operations. Professionalized management often increases EBITDA significantly and expands the pool of qualified leadership talent. Even if the business is eventually sold, building a strong management team substantially increases valuation. Family offices and multigenerational trusts can help preserve and strategically deploy large pools of liquid wealth. The "family private enterprise model" offers an alternative to selling by keeping ownership while professionalizing operations. Succession planning is a process that requires coaching, buy-in, and intentional cultural transition rather than a one-time transaction. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/family-private-enterprise-model-tom-hoffman-792 

The run is hot economy is here! Today we talk markets, and debunk alarmist headlines about rising Japanese bond yields. We also talk about a significant market rotation: expensive mega-cap tech stocks are faltering while capital flows into "boring" sectors like staples, industrials, energy, healthcare, and utilities, with international markets also outperforming. Watch out about chasing falling tech names or trying to pick bottoms in areas like crypto. Diversification is always the way to go so understand sentiment cycles and focus on where money is flowing rather than where it has already been. Successful investing is about discipline, context, and avoiding emotional decisions. We discuss... Japan's 10-year government bond yield rising from near 0% to over 2%, which has sparked global concern. Because most Japanese government debt is owned domestically—by the central bank and pensions—the systemic risk narrative may be exaggerated. Market headlines often amplify short-term moves without proper historical framing. A large percentage of U.S. stocks are trading at very high price-to-sales ratios, exceeding even dot-com-era levels in some measures. Companies like Apple have high valuations despite limited recent earnings growth, raising questions about sustainability. Rotations are normal cycles in markets, where leadership shifts rather than the entire market collapsing. Utilities and staples—traditionally "boring" sectors—have recently outperformed while software and high-beta tech stocks have sold off sharply. International markets, particularly emerging markets and Europe, have outperformed the U.S. year-to-date. Heavy AI-related capital expenditures announced by large tech firms may have contributed to investor concerns. We compare crypto cycles to past tech bubbles, noting that true bottoms often occur when sentiment disappears and investors stop paying attention. Focus on where capital is flowing now rather than chasing sectors based on past performance. Diversification, patience, and understanding market cycles are essential for long-term investing success. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/run-it-hot-economy-is-here-791 

New technology is coming soon and here is how to invest in the future! Inventor and investor Pablos Holman shares his journey from early computer hacking to co-founding Blue Origin, leading a prolific deep-tech lab, and now backing "mad scientists" building hard technologies beyond software. He believes Silicon Valley has over-indexed on easy software gains while neglecting transformative advances in hardware, energy, and real-world systems. He explains how breakthroughs in computation now let us model and simulate the physical world, from disease eradication to supply chains, marking a toolkit upgrade on par with the steam engine, while also wrestling with the social, regulatory, and human challenges that slow progress. We talk AI's real potential beyond chatbots, the urgent need to 10x global energy, decentralization vs. centralization in tech, the societal costs of social media, and even more! We discuss... Pablos Holman described his path from early computer hacking to founding deep-tech ventures like Blue Origin and running a VC fund focused on inventors building real-world, non-software technologies. Pablos framed technological progress as periodic "toolkit upgrades," comparing today's advances in computation and simulation to the impact of the steam engine. Modern computational models enable simulations of complex systems like disease spread, cities, and supply chains, dramatically improving decision-making. The conversation highlighted AI's true value as modeling the world while warning of over-centralization and privacy tradeoffs in the near term. Global energy scarcity is the real bottleneck to progress and peace, requiring a massive scale-up in clean, cheap energy. Nuclear power is the only viable path to global energy production and described new reactor designs nearing deployment. The discussion explored how regulatory and political systems, rather than technology itself, are often the biggest obstacles to innovation, especially in healthcare and energy. Pablos criticized social media for societal damage but argued the core issue is human responsibility and misuse rather than the technology itself. AI and crypto represent an open experimental phase where individuals can still influence outcomes before power consolidates. Pablos encouraged people to actively engage with and help build meaningful technologies instead of passively reacting to technological change. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Diana Perkins | Trading With Diana Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/how-to-invest-in-the-future-790 

Dump your tech because this sector is booming and we are going to tell you what it is! Today we talk the sharp risk-off shift across markets as recent selloffs in crypto, precious metals, and especially technology reflect excessive greed being unwound rather than a systemic collapse. This is not a buy-the-dip environment, and you shouldn't be chasing volatility-heavy assets like crypto and metals too early. We also highlight a clear rotation of liquidity away from growth and speculative assets into value-oriented, defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, industrials, utilities, energy, and select international stocks, as these boring, low-beta areas are sometimes outperforming amid tech weakness, layoffs, earnings disappointments, and rising macro uncertainty, making capital preservationn and patience more important than chasing rebounds. We discuss...  Markets are undergoing a clear risk-off rotation, with speculative assets like tech, crypto, and precious metals selling off after periods of extreme greed and overcrowded positioning. Precious metals remain in a long-term bull market but may require one to two years of consolidation before sustainably moving higher. Crypto's sharp drawdowns and volatility are described as a feature, not a flaw, but current volatility suggests it is not yet an attractive risk-reward entry. Capital is rotating into value and defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, energy, and industrials. Value stocks are outperforming growth stocks, marking a notable regime shift from the past decade's market leadership. Defensive, cash-flow-generating businesses are highlighted as portfolio stabilizers during periods of market stress. Weakening labor market data and rising layoffs are adding to macro uncertainty and undermining the soft-landing narrative. Correlations across risk assets are rising, reducing the diversification benefits of traditionally speculative assets like crypto. Market indices such as the NASDAQ are less reflective of pure tech weakness due to non-tech constituents providing offsetting support. Liquidity is described as moving like water, flowing out of stressed sectors and into areas showing relative strength. The January seasonal "risk-on" effect failed to materialize, suggesting macro forces are overpowering historical patterns. Short-term technical indicators show elevated volatility but not yet a definitive structural breakdown. Investors are encouraged to focus on where money is flowing rather than what looks cheap after a selloff. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/this-sector-is-booming-789 

Commercial real estate veteran Ben Reinberg shares how he uses hard assets and smart debt to strengthen his investing portfolio. He shares his journey from starting in his early 20s to building a national hard-asset portfolio across industrial, office, retail, multifamily, and medical real estate. We talk the importance of the "ability to hold" assets through cycles by avoiding over-leverage, maintaining reserves, and structuring smart debt. Ben outlines where commercial real estate sits in the current cycle, highlighting looming debt maturities, distressed opportunities, and the potential for attractive buying conditions over the next few years. We discuss... Ben Reinberg explains how he built wealth starting in his early 20s by focusing on hard assets, particularly commercial real estate, as a long-term strategy for cash flow and financial control. He emphasizes the importance of becoming a true expert in a specific asset class rather than spreading focus too broadly. He shares lessons from his first industrial deal, including managing tenant loss, repositioning assets, and creating value through active ownership. A central theme was the "ability to hold," meaning structuring investments to survive any market cycle without being forced to sell. He stressed using smart debt, avoiding over-leverage (generally keeping loan-to-value around 65%), and maintaining ample reserves. The discussion highlighted why medical office real estate is recession- and pandemic-resilient, with high tenant renewal rates and stable cash flow. Reinberg explained how inflation, tariffs, and rising costs affect tenants and property operations across different real estate sectors. The episode explored how real estate acts as an inflation hedge through rent growth, escalators, and long-term asset appreciation. They discussed the current commercial real estate downturn, driven by higher rates, falling values, and large amounts of debt coming due. Reinberg argued that the next few years may present some of the best commercial real estate buying opportunities in decades. He warned investors to be cautious, underwrite deals conservatively, and focus on tenant quality and market fundamentals. We have an optimistic outlook for 2026–2028, expecting lower rates, increased liquidity, more transactions, and improving economic stability. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/hard-assets-and-smart-debt-ben-reinberg-788 

Silver crashed! Today we focus on a historic bout of volatility in precious metals following months of extreme, unhealthy gains. We figure out if the selloff was driven by the announcement of a new Fed chair or severe technical overextension, crowded positioning that triggered profit-taking, shorting, and forced de-risking. We also talked the implications of a potentially growth-leaning but inflation-conscious Fed, ongoing structural risks like debt, deficits, and sticky inflation, and why monetary policy alone can't solve them. We reviewed the January market performance, and noticed strength in energy, materials, commodities, and international equities versus lagging tech and software. Markets are rotating regimes, not ending trends, and investors should focus on risk management, diversification, and long-term planning rather than reacting emotionally to short-term chaos. We discuss... We unpacked a historic spike in precious-metals volatility, with silver experiencing extreme, record-level swings after months of unsustainably rapid gains. The Fed chair news was described as a "match, not the bonfire," triggering a correction that was already statistically inevitable at extreme standard deviations. Volatility selling, options hedging, and large institutional short positioning likely amplified the downside move in silver. The gold-silver ratio had reached stretched levels, making a snapback or rebalancing between gold and silver unavoidable. Despite the violent correction, the broader precious-metals bull trend was viewed as intact rather than broken. Gold was described as healthier than silver due to steady institutional and central-bank buying. We covered how computers, systematic strategies, and risk managers now dominate market mechanics at volatility extremes. Rate cuts may come sooner than expected, but structural issues like debt, deficits, and sticky inflation remain unresolved. Markets so far reacted modestly outside of commodities, suggesting rotation rather than systemic stress. Energy and commodities were highlighted as key areas to watch in an inflation-sensitive environment. International equities significantly outperformed U.S. markets, reinforcing the case for global diversification. A small bank failure highlighted lingering credit and balance-sheet risks despite limited systemic impact. Midterm election seasonality was discussed as a potential source of higher volatility and uneven returns.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/silver-crashed-787  

Jean-Baptiste Wautier is here to talk growing global debt and the impact on the economy. He draws on decades of private-equity and macro experience to discuss accelerating global change, arguing that rising debt, AI, and political polarization are reshaping the economic and geopolitical order. We discuss Europe's recent market strength, China as an unavoidable, though risky, investment given its scale and AI ambitions, and gold and crypto as hedges rather than true currency alternatives. He also warms that global debt dynamics will force restructuring in places like Japan and parts of Europe, and concludes that AI is likely transformative but slower and more socially disruptive than markets assume, ultimately requiring a rethink of productivity, employment, and even how economic progress is measured. We discuss... Jean-Baptiste Wautier argued that today's environment reflects an acceleration of long-term forces—debt accumulation, AI as a fourth industrial revolution, and rising political polarization—rather than a completely unprecedented moment. He suggested populism can be reversed without extreme disruption if governments deliver tangible economic fixes, citing Italy as an example of pragmatic reform restoring democratic confidence. Wautier emphasized that middle-class affordability, youth opportunity, and fiscal credibility are the core issues driving political instability in Western democracies. He criticized the lack of democratic oversight of central banks, arguing monetary policy has become too consequential to remain entirely insulated from public accountability. He believes there is no painless solution to global debt problems, with Europe facing unavoidable austerity while the U.S. may temporarily "get away with it" due to dollar dominance and capital inflows. Europe's recent market outperformance was described as a short-term valuation and diversification blip rather than a reflection of improving fundamentals. Wautier argued the dollar has no credible fiat challenger, reinforcing its dominance despite past U.S. policy mistakes. Gold and cryptocurrencies were discussed primarily as hedges against dollar risk rather than true replacements for the global reserve system. Bitcoin was criticized as too volatile to function as a reserve or transactional currency, regardless of its popularity as a speculative store of value. Stablecoins were viewed as a strategic U.S. response to crypto, potentially extending dollar dominance into digital finance. Demographic decline across developed economies was identified as a structural constraint that traditional growth models cannot easily resolve. Wautier argued AI adoption is moving faster than societies can adapt, limiting near-term productivity gains while increasing long-term disruption. AI's ultimate impact will be profound but slow, likely forcing a reassessment of GDP and other traditional measures of economic progress. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/growing-global-debt-jean-baptiste-wautier-786 

The global economy is shifting into a "run-it-hot" inflationary growth phase driven by political incentives, energy demand, and the need to manage unsustainable debt and here is how to profit on it. The U.S. is deliberately favoring high growth and persistent inflation to inflate away debt and support asset prices ahead of midterms, even as official data and climate narratives are treated with skepticism. Today we talk about how governments historically deal with excess debt, why inflation plus growth is the most politically viable path, and how this environment favors commodities, real assets, and cyclicals over overvalued big tech. Markets are rotating, not simply "risk-on/risk-off," so you should be wary against blindly sticking with what worked in the past. Stay flexible as policy volatility, geopolitical shifts, and changing economic forces reshape the investment landscape. We discuss...  Energy policy is rapidly shifting in favor of expansion as tech-driven demand makes energy security a political priority, sidelining prior climate and regulatory concerns. The "run-it-hot economy" framework argues the U.S. is intentionally pursuing high growth alongside persistent inflation to manage excessive sovereign debt and support asset prices. With midterms approaching, political incentives favor policies that keep markets strong, reduce visible costs like energy and housing, and maintain public confidence rather than fiscal austerity. Inflation and growth together are framed as the most realistic way for governments to inflate away debt without triggering default or severe political backlash. Historical economic regimes are outlined to show how different inflation and growth combinations favor different asset classes. The current environment resembles an inflationary boom, which historically benefits commodities, real assets, and stores of value. Big tech and innovation-led assets are seen as potential underperformers in an inflationary, rotational market after years of dominance. Market leadership is narrowing and rotating, with small caps, mid caps, and non-U.S. markets showing stronger early-year performance. The S&P 500's heavy concentration in a small number of tech stocks increases risk as leadership weakens. Investors are cautioned against blindly rebalancing or clinging to past winners without reassessing changing tailwinds and headwinds. Fraud reduction and spending audits may improve trust and optics but are unlikely to materially fix long-term debt problems. Energy's small weight in major indexes is highlighted as a potential mispricing given its economic importance. Seasonal market patterns suggest near-term volatility is likely even within a broader bullish rotation. Investors must adapt portfolios to evolving macro regimes rather than assume past strategies will continue to work.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/how-to-profit-785 

Shellee Howard is on the show today to talk how to do college without crushign debt for your kids. She shares how her journey as a "mom on a mission" led her to help families navigate the college process strategically, emphasizing early preparation, self-discovery, and return on investment rather than prestige alone. She explains why overcrowded school counselors fall short, how students should clarify their values, talents, and career goals before choosing colleges, and why college should be viewed as a business decision and a stepping stone to adulthood, and not a status symbol. With the right planning, families can avoid debt, maximize scholarships, and choose schools that truly align with a student's future goals. We discuss...  Shellee Howard explained how her experience guiding her own children to graduate college debt-free inspired her career as an independent college consultant. She described why high school guidance counselors are often unable to provide comprehensive college planning due to overcrowding and competing responsibilities. The discussion emphasized starting college preparation early by helping students identify their core values, strengths, and long-term interests rather than focusing only on grades or test scores. Shellee stressed that college readiness is about preparing for adulthood, not chasing prestige or comparing against other families. We explore how poor financial literacy leads many students to take on unnecessary debt without understanding return on investment. Shellee argued that college is a business decision and should be evaluated like an investment, with scholarships, fit, and outcomes prioritized over name recognition alone. Many students are not ready at 18 to make high-stakes decisions and why exploration through service, internships, and extracurriculars matters. The value of college branding versus actual educational and career outcomes are debated, with examples showing that different paths work for different students. Shellee outlined key timing considerations, including the critical importance of middle school and early high school years for maximizing opportunity and financial aid. Parents were encouraged to stay actively involved in guiding their children rather than leaving major financial and life decisions to teenagers. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/college-without-crushing-debt-shellee-howard-784 

We're in the middle of a run it hot economy. Today our discussion ranged from geopolitics into markets, including precious metals. Silver's recent surge is best understood as a reversion toward historical gold–silver ratios rather than a knowable fundamental catalyst. Silver's parabolic move looks unstable compared to gold's healthier, slower uptrend. But no one can truly know why prices move, so investors should be clear about why they own precious metals since that purpose should drive allocation size and risk tolerance. We also talk macro conditions, the U.S. may be pursuing an "inflationary boom" or "run it hot" strategy to offset high debt and valuations, which would favor real assets like commodities, gold, and real estate over long-duration bonds. It's important to manage fear, avoid extreme predictions, stay diversified, and pay close attention to structure, incentives, taxes, and shifting global leadership rather than relying on narratives or past performance. We discuss... Precious metals are a key focus, with gold behaving in a steady, healthy bull market while silver experienced a sharp and unstable surge. The gold-to-silver ratio was discussed as historically stretched and now reverting toward long-term norms, helping explain silver's outperformance. Silver was highlighted as both a monetary metal and a critical industrial commodity listed by the U.S. government as strategically important. The parabolic nature of silver's recent price action is risky and vulnerable to sharp pullbacks or policy interventions like margin hikes. Investors should define why they own precious metals—portfolio balance, trend participation, or protection against monetary risk. Fear-driven investing and "end of the world" thinking are harmful to rational portfolio decisions. The idea of an "inflationary boom" or "run-it-hot" economic strategy was presented as the likely policy path forward. Big tech is increasingly fragile and potentially misaligned with an inflationary-growth regime. International markets were noted as having recently outperformed U.S. equities despite America-first political narratives. Valuations in U.S. equities were described as high and structurally fragile, even as the bull market remains intact. Technicals and momentum are dominating fundamentals in the current market cycle. Tax considerations are an often-overlooked but critical factor in portfolio construction and asset selection. Bitcoin's unique tax treatment and classification as property offer planning advantages versus securities. Be wary about complacency, overconcentration, and narrative-driven investing in a late-cycle market.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/run-it-hot-economy-783 

Jon Ostenson is here today to share secret franchising profits for investors in 2026! Jon tells about his journey from corporate consulting into franchising and explains why non-food franchises can be a compelling, tax-advantaged path to business ownership, offering proven models, franchisor support, and built-in peer networks that often outperform startups or buying existing businesses. He compares franchising with starting or acquiring businesses, highlighted the appeal of "non-sexy" but durable industries resistant to trends and disruption. Jon also talks semi-passive ownership models, scaling through multi-territory ownership or acquisitions, and more that make franchising an attractive option for professionals seeking diversification, cash flow, and long-term growth. We discuss...  Jon Ostenson describes his transition from corporate roles at into franchising, ultimately building a consulting business that helps investors identify and enter non-food franchise opportunities nationwide. Franchising is a tax-advantaged alternative investment that can complement traditional assets like stocks and real estate within a diversified portfolio. Jon argued that boring, essential service businesses often outperform because they are less vulnerable to consumer fads, Amazon disruption, or near-term AI displacement. The concept of semi-passive or executive-model franchising was explained, where owners hire managers to run day-to-day operations while remaining hands-off with proper oversight. Success in semi-passive ownership was tied to having both a strong operator in place and a capable franchisor providing ongoing support and systems. Area developer and master franchise models were discussed as less common today, with most growth occurring through multi-unit franchise ownership. Jon identified people skills, sales experience, and humility to follow the system as the most consistent traits among top-performing franchisees. Franchise peer networks are a built-in mastermind that accelerates learning, best practices, and operational improvements across markets. Franchising is not passive income, but it can be made semi-absentee with the right structure and expectations. Franchising is a practical, scalable path to entrepreneurship for professionals seeking cash flow, control, and long-term wealth outside traditional investments. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/secret-franchising-profits-jon-ostenson-782 

Today we have your 2026 predictions. We also cover the volatile 2025 year-end and share the extreme moves in precious metals and global geopolitical shocks as a case study for how investors should think: not politically or emotionally, but by watching price action and sector reactions. Low holiday liquidity amplified market swings, but that real signals came from how energy, materials, small caps, and international markets responded. We also think that despite macro unease, debt overhangs, and geopolitical reshuffling, the data still point to a broadly bullish environment, with diversification, attention to relative performance, and humility toward market signals being far more important than predictions. We discuss... Precious metals led early-year performance, with platinum, silver, and gold behaving very differently despite being in the same sector. Investors should respond to global events by asking how markets interpret them, not by reacting to political narratives. The U.S. seizure of Venezuela's president is a geopolitical shock with significant implications for energy markets and global power dynamics. Oil service and infrastructure companies briefly surged as markets discounted future Venezuelan production, though sustainability remains uncertain. China is a key indirect loser due to rising effective energy costs and margin pressure in its low-margin industrial economy. Geopolitical moves are increasingly overt, signaling a reshuffling of the global financial and political order. Have caution because investor intuition is often wrong, and there are historical examples where markets moved opposite of popular expectations. Price action was repeatedly emphasized as the best indicator of what informed capital is actually doing. Early 2026 performance showed leadership from small caps, microcaps, and value stocks rather than mega-cap technology. Materials, industrials, and energy outperformed in the first week, while tech, utilities, and communications lagged. The "Magnificent 7" were noted as early underperformers, challenging the assumption that they always lead markets. Defense stocks strengthened following signals of increased U.S. military spending. Healthcare and other previously beaten-down sectors were flagged as areas worth watching. Be caution against passive overreliance on the S&P 500 due to concentration risk and historical periods of long underperformance. While risks are elevated, market signals remain broadly bullish and investors should stay adaptive rather than predictive. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/https://moneytreepodcast.com/2026-predictions-781 

Arrash Yasavoli discusses how you should jump on investing in bitoin in 2026! Arrash's path from data engineering at LinkedIn into quantitative trading, crypto, and building Glitch, a SaaS platform that gives broader access to advanced trading strategies gives a unique perspective into possible 2026 investing plans. We also talk Bitcoin's role as a potential store of value, the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins, the growing importance of real utility and valuation in crypto projects, the rise of ETFs and stablecoins as bridges to mainstream adoption, and more. We discuss... Crypto's transition from a speculative and "scammy" perception toward broader legitimacy through regulation, ETFs, and institutional adoption. Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a store of value similar to gold rather than a scalable transactional currency. Bitcoin's fixed supply and resilience through multiple market cycles were highlighted as key drivers of long-term investor confidence. Bitcoin's historical growth rates are unlikely to persist, with future returns likely slowing and volatility remaining high. The growing divergence between Bitcoin performance and stagnant altcoins was identified as a sign of increasing market maturity. Many altcoins from earlier cycles failed due to hype-driven models that never delivered real value. The current crypto cycle was compared to the post–dot-com bust era, where focus shifts from excitement to sustainable business models. Regulatory clarity, including frameworks for crypto and stablecoins, was viewed as a major catalyst for continued adoption. Whether investors should trade or hold crypto, with emphasis on patience and fundamentals over speculation. Future crypto valuation models were described as moving toward revenue, profitability, and clear value propositions. Arrash outlined his work on BitTensor, a blockchain designed to create and trade real digital commodities. Crypto's long-term value lies in practical applications that quietly use blockchain under the hood rather than hype-driven narratives. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investing-in-bitcoin-in-2026-arrash-yasavolian-780