Caucus

In this week's Caucus, the team discuss the Green Party strategy that may have (inadvertently) saved Labour. Was it OK to put Metiria Turei under such scrutiny? What next for the Greens? By Tim WatkinThree weeks ago, Metiria Turei rolled the dice with nothing less at stake than all the gains the Greens had made in recent elections - from a 5-6 percent party to a 10-12 percent party.Frustration at their inability to get into government and Labour's stumbling performance over the last three years saw the Greens opt for the high-risk high-reward strategy. But was it a naive strategy, and how well was it implemented?Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei resigned as co-leader after weeks of pressure over her admission of lying to Work and Income in the 1990s so her benefit would not be cut.First, Turei attacked Winston Peters as racist. Then, in the second act on 16 July, she revealed that she had lied to Work and Income about her living circumstances when she was a solo mum in the 1990s. She admitted then that the confession put her own career and the party at risk. It turned out to be a prophetic statement, not that it played out that way at first.Her revelation, along with Labour's messed-up intern scheme, saw the Greens leap in the polls, and Labour slump.The Greens were delighted; although taking votes off Labour was doing nothing to change the government, as per the party's mission statement, it was maximising its votes and strengthening its hand.But the dice hasn't stopped rolling. Labour's slump prompted a leadership spill and ushered in the Jacinda Effect. Worse for the Greens, Turei's story of having to lie to support her child was found to have new fish hooks - such as that she had, in a fit of youthful hijinks, committed what could be called electoral fraud.Then it became clear some Green MPs - Kennedy Graham and Dave Clendon - didn't like Turei's refusal to condemn other beneficiaries today for doing what she did herself in the past. The stench of disunity was coming off the party, and new polls yesterday and today showed the party's support plummet back into single digits, while Labour roared into the mid-30s - the minimum of where they need to be to lead a new government.Inadvertently, ironically, and at the cost of her own political career and her party's reputation for taking the high moral ground, Turei has breathed new life into Labour and done more to change the government than she probably dared hope. It's just not happened the way she would have wanted to.In this week's episode - with me, Guyon Espiner and Lisa Owen - we discuss this intense week in New Zealand politics, which climaxed in Turei's resignation as co-leader…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

National starts its fight back as Bill English goes to boot camp, Jacinda Ardern negotiates her first international stoush and Grant Robertson opens the door to a Capital Gains Tax.By Tim WatkinIt's been an in-between week in New Zealand politics - between the fall of both Andrew Little and Metiria Turei and before the final pre-election fiscal update and the rise of the 'big policies'. But there's still been plenty going on. And a bit of argy-bargy.Next Wednesday, what's known as the PREFU is released by Treasury. That's the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update, to give it its proper name. Labour won't reveal its big policy - widely picked to involve education - until it knows the state of the nation's books. While they'll have it all ready to go, they need to be seen to be waiting so as to look like responsible managers of the economy. Equally, National has kept its campaign launch back until 27 August - four days after the PREFU - when we expect to see its big policy bid for a fourth term.But has everyone been in hibernation while we wait? Heck no. Some have even come out of hiding.While we've seen a lot of reheated policy announced - such as Labour again promising driving lessons for high school students and National re-announcing the $100m for mental health it first announced in Budget 2017 - battle lines have been drawn.In this week's Caucus podcast, Guyon Espiner says National has kept its powder dry for a week or so after Ardern's rise to the leadership, but has now started to roll out attacks against Labour. First amongst those, #letstaxthis and the well-worn line that Labour is the party of new taxes.Labour opened the door to that attack, when finance spokesman Grant Robertson revealed that a capital gains tax was back on the table in Labour's first term. In 2015, Andrew Little as leader ruled out significant tax reform in a first term, promising to seek a mandate at the next election. Robertson, then Ardern, said if Labour's tax review suggested a capital gains tax (which politics observers assume it will), they no longer feel the need to seek that mandate before implementing it.Cue Steven Joyce calling Labour "dodgy on tax" and cries that Ardern will introduce new taxes on water, Auckland transport and now property. Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy even starred in a campaign video as the worried farmer having to find money for water royalties on top of all his other many bills…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

Lisa, Tim and Guyon discuss how PREFU has changed the campaign, how Dunne's departure may signal a changing of the generations, and how the minor parties want to change the conversation.By Tim WatkinPut the clubs down and back away. That's what Labour and National tried to do after the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) was released yesterday.The first moves by both major parties were defensive. Labour ruled out an increase to the top tax rate, trying to diminish National's attack line that they are the party of taxes, taxes and more taxes. At the same time, National took tax cuts off the table, undermining Labour's attack line that Joyce & Co are willing to starve essential public services, such as health and education.And yet. And yet. Labour's standing by its decision to set up a tax working group should it become government and take advice from it on how to reform the tax system. Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson claim the current tax system isn't fair, but won't openly campaign on what they think a fair system looks like. While it's widely assumed Labour is inclined towards introducing a Capital Gains Tax (they campaigned on one in 2011 and 2014), Ardern insists she won't make up her mind until she's seen the tax group's recommendations.Yet as Guyon and Lisa point out in the podcast, she has confirmed that she and Robertson will appoint the members of the group, so can more or less ensure the result she wants.So National will keep using the 'Let's tax this' club from now until 23 September as they try to convince voters that change is too risky and more of the same is in their interests.Labour, in its turn, will keep looking to bash National for its lack of commitment to improving public services, that have now been run under the Bill English 'do more with less' mantra for nine years. Notably, while the headlines shouted that Steve Joyce had taken tax cuts off the table as a result of the slightly worse than expected PREFU numbers, the fact is Joyce did actually promise tax cuts yesterday. He just suspended them.At his press conference, Joyce ruled out tax cuts in this campaign, but added he would look at the possibility of raising tax thresholds as part of another 'families income package' in 2020, should fiscal conditions allow. Then, later in the day, he released a press statement that was much stronger than those initial words. The statement committed National to another package in 2020, essentially on the condition that his government gets to do what it's already promised to do in Budget 2017…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

It's all about Winston - his Super spin, bottom lines and how he chooses coalition partners. But it's also about the scrap for the family vote and what it's really like behind the scenes at a leaders debate By Tim WatkinIt's been Winston week, so far. That changes tonight, with the first head-to-head major party leaders debate on TVNZ between Bill English and Jacinda Ardern. But thus far the NZ First leader and his super-charged super payments have been the focus of discussion.Winston Peters has adeptly turned the story into one about who leaked the information to journalists. That raises privacy concerns that deserve to be addressed and has seen Peters grab the opportunity to ask how his personal information made it into the public domain. At first, he was sure IRD officials were the source of the leak. Next, he was certain it was someone in or around National.Investigations are under way and even Prime Minister Bill English has worried out loud about officials' use of private information. As Guyon Espiner says in today's Caucus, there's plenty of irony in this. Peters has built a career on using leaks to his political gain, and National is in something of a glasshouse itself, if it wants to pour scorn on the politicisation of personal information, given its track record recounted in Dirty Politics.But that all has drawn attention away from the central question of how Peters was overpaid superannuation for so long and whether the man who so often calls for transparency from others, should release his forms so voters can see whether or not his story stacks up. By and large the public reaction has been sympathetic to Peters and, as Espiner says, he's on the front foot. The bottom line is that all the recent polls still have New Zealand First as 'The Decider' - the party that will decide between a National-led and Labour-led government. Which raises the question of bottom lines…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

The panel discuss why both National and Labour seem to be having trouble with their sums, and why it's time to ask the minor parties what they really want.By Tim WatkinFinancial credibility and leadership. That's what this week's Caucus boils down to, with both National and Labour struggling with the former, but showing a fair bit of the latter. Then there are the minor parties and what coalition combos could look like. But more of that later.National's incorrect claims that Labour has an "$11.7 billion hole" in its fiscal plan - and its insistence it is right in the face of universal disagreement - has dominated the week, raising the question whether National's reputation for sound economic stewardship has taken a hit. In the finance debate on today's Morning Report, Steven Joyce couldn't name one New Zealander who backed his claims; and as Guyon points out, he wasn't even asking for an economist, it was any New Zealander at all.Joyce's tactics mimic the National Party playbook from 2011 and 2014, when he raised questions about large fiscal holes in Labour's accounts, but this time the pushback has been strong and credible and National's narrative that they know how to run an economy better than anyone else is now being questioned.Not that Labour's fiscals aren't without their own problems. Lisa runs through some of the "heroic" numbers that are in Labour's plan and then, of course, there's the land tax question. For nearly 48 hours, confusion reigned as to whether or not Jacinda Ardern had left the door open to a tax on the land under a family home.Following a Tuesday Morning Report interview in which she seemed to both rule out a land tax on the family home and insist it was on the table for her proposed Tax Working Group, it took until last night for her to definitively say that there would be no tax - capital gains, land, or any variety - on the family home or land.Yet while the major parties have struggled with economics, the Newshub leaders debate saw some moments of genuine leadership. Bill English took National into new territory, promising to lift 100,000 children out of poverty in the next term. He out-passioned her on the night, but Ardern matched that the next morning.In the same debate, Ardern spoke out on abortion, committing to taking it out of the Crimes Act and earning loud applause from the studio audience. Lisa says that just a few months ago, she declined an interview request from The Nation on just that topic, saying it was a conscience vote. Now as leader, she's taken a stand. With English opposed to change, it reinforces the old/new perception that Labour is trying to develop…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

Lisa Owen, Tim Watkin and Guyon Espiner discuss the fallout from Labour's sudden tax u-turn, the volatility of polls and the cost and bottom-lines of Winston Peters.By Tim WatkinPoliticians and u-turns go together like taxi divers and, well, u-turns. But a u-turn 10 days out from election day? On tax? It's a big call Labour has made today on a policy that needn't have been controversial in the first place.Grant Robertson's announcement this morning that Labour will not introduce any recommendations made by its Tax Working Group until after the 2020 election effectively reinstates the party's policy of just a month ago, before Jacinda Ardern took over the leadership and made her "captain's call" to shake things up on tax. And that's top of the agenda on today's Caucus podcast.The new promise is intended to take the heat out of National's attacks on the party and its claims - always in the grey lands between fact and fiction - that Labour was planning a suite of new taxes should it lead the next government. Robertson's new favourite word is "certainty", because he hopes that is what it will give voters; the certainty that they can vote Labour without being hit in the pocket.Let's count them out: Labour has now promised no capital gains tax on the family home and no land tax on the land under the family home. No increase to GST or income tax. The tax changes it will make are to reverse National's tax cuts that are due to come into effect next April, remove negative gearing, extend National's brightline test from two out to five years, eliminate secondary tax, tax irrigation at 1-2 cents per thousand litres, charge a royalty on water bottlers, a regional fuel tax for Auckland and "crackdown" on tax avoidance on multi-nationals.Labour will now hope to be able to start talking about health and housing again. It will hope that voters who were 'taking a second look' at Labour will be more inclined to like what they see. Whereas National has been contrasting them as risky, compared to Bill English's 'safe pair of hands', Labour strategists will hope they can stand for hope.But it's a heck of a swing away from Ardern's first big captain's call. Andrew Little had promised voters when he first became leader that the party would not introduce a capital gains tax until it had sought and won a mandate at an election. Now CGTs are nothing radical; New Zealand is one of only two OECD countries not to have one. And Ardern decided the housing crisis was such that she needed to be able to introduce a CGT in Labour's first term if her tax working group so advised.On August 22, she told Guyon Espiner on Morning Report:…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

We make the big calls two days from E-Day. What are the scenarios that could lead to forming a government, a last look at the polls & debates, & our highs and lows from the campaignBy Tim WatkinSo it all comes down to this: It's close. While the lack of polls this election means it's hard to pick trends, it looks clear that Labour's Adern-tastic August has hit a September slump. Momentum has stalled. It may have even swung behind National, but on the available data it's impossible to say. Thus, all we can say is that it's close.That doesn't stop RNZ's own Caucus from taking a hard look at the wide range of scenarios that could yet turn into a government next week. We're no shirkers. and while I say that somewhat flippantly, it actually matters. As we've discussed on previous podcasts, to avoid a disillusioned electorate in a few days time, it's important for the public to understand how their votes might turn into a government.The possible outcomes are many. Looking at the polls as we know them (including RNZ's Poll of Polls) we could have anything from National effectively governing alone, with ACT and perhaps the Maori Party, as they do now. At the other extreme, we could have a Labour-Greens-Maori Party coalition. Either outcome - and more in-between - are only a few percent apart and within the margins of error.National at 45 percent or more would almost certainly get to govern; we can assume that even if, after wasted vote is take out of the mix, it didn't need support, it would still join with a party or two. But which ones? ACT, is tied to National. But could the Maori Party stomach a fourth term propping up a National-led government, given so many of its supporters give their other vote to Labour? Te Ururoa Flavell suggests it's possible, while Marama Fox has sent quite different signals.Back in the early 40s, it gets harder for National, because it doesn't have a loyal friend like the Greens to give it a boost. National at that level would likely depend on New Zealand First, as Winston Peters (despite probing) is giving nothing away in whether he's more likely to prefer Labour or National's direction for the country.Labour will be hoping its final number "starts with a 4", as some of its leaders have hoped for in the past few terms. If it does, then there's a chance of the Greens and Maori Party being able to get it up to the magic number of 61 seats in parliament. That's a majority in a 121-seat parliament…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

In our 13th Caucus, it's negotiation time. So we look at Winston Peters' post-election posturing, 'constitutional conventions' and what New Zealand First needs from the next three years. Plus, we unpack the election results and what they mean for the parties.By Tim WatkinThat Winston, he's such an old curmudgeon. A funny old uncle. A bit cheeky, but good for a laugh. That's how most New Zealanders view the New Zealand First leader, who former Prime Minister Jenny Shipley has described as "an 85 percent outstanding leader".In past episodes of Caucus we've argued that he can put the curmudgeonly personna aside when needed because he takes his constitutional role seriously. Cometh the hour, cometh the statesman. Yet yesterday has given us pause to doubt.Now, with the serious responsibility of government in his hands, he is throwing his toys.Caucus this week makes the case - not for the first time - for taking Winston Peters seriously and holding him to account as we would other party leaders. We've always taken him seriously, knowing that in all likelihood we would get to where we are now, with New Zealand First holding the balance of power. Which makes yesterday's petulant press conference all the more concerning.New Zealanders have a habit of indulging Peters and enjoying the quick-witted, "maverick" pleasure he brings to the often dour business of government, yet just when we should be seeing him at his responsible best, he holds a press conference in which he spends half an hour not even trying to give a straight answer and simply lambasting journalists he has a beef with (and several he doesn't).At a time when we are negotiating nothing less than the shape of our next government, Peters demands to be taken seriously, while at the same time delivering nothing more or less than farce and falsehoods. At yesterday's press conference he again insisted that he's never used the word bottom-line. That's simply untrue, as you can see here.You could also note that in July this year, Peters said "My strategy is to tell everybody out there that you won't be talking to NZ First unless you want a referendum on both those issues ". Yet yesterday he told an Australian news programme, "some of the things that, or elements to the environment on which a promise is made have since changed" and the Maori seats referendum could go by-the-by…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

The election's getting close and that can only mean one thing... Caucus is coming back. Presented by Guyon Espiner, Lisa Owen, Tim Watkin and Scott Campbell.The election's getting close and that can only mean one thing...Caucus is back. And this election RNZ journalists Guyon Espiner, Lisa Owen and Tim Watkin are joined by former Gallery reporter turned strategic consultant Scott Campbell. Each Thursday the crew will chew over the big events of Election 2020, debate what it all means and try to make sense of the politics and policy. Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

Caucus returns for Election 2020 talking about the state of the parties, Covid debt and problems with our political culture.By Tim WatkinCampaigns. Culture. Character. And perhaps most of all, Covid-19. As the House rises today and politicians hit the road to pitch their woo to voters, those issues will be front of mind for the candidates.They were also where the new season of politics podcast Caucus began today. This year RNZ journalists Guyon Espiner, Lisa Owen and Tim Watkin are joined by former Gallery reporter, political commentator and strategic advisor, Scott Campbell.Labour heads into campaign season with a huge lead in recent polls, which have the party 20-25 points ahead of National, and widely regarded as a safe pair of hands amidst a global crisis. A party looking to take a transformative path couldn't hope for a bigger or better opportunity; the only time Labour has ever won more than 50 percent of the vote was in 1938, when (like today) a popular Prime Minister was looking for a second term in troubled times. In that case it was Michael Joseph Savage and Labour used its political power to introduce the Social Security Act, complete with free healthcare, benefit extensions and superannuation.Sure, this is MMP and modern Labour has a larger cast of parties to deal with. But whereas New Zealand First and the Greens combined ended up with nearly 20 percent of the vote in 2017, at this stage of the cycle they are polling at under 10 percent. Often under MMP the vote has shuffled around between parties on the left and right, only crossing the centre line now and then. But recent polls suggest Labour is gobbling up those swing voters at the moment, with one poll of polls having it on 55.6 percent.This Labour Party, however, has spent recent days signalling we are in the midst of a once-in-a-century pandemic and playing down any talk of once-in-century reforms. "I would flag to voters not to expect to see large scale manifestoes that are a significant departure from what we're doing," Ardern told Morning Report this week. Hardly a Savage-esque response. More in line with Ardern's cautious political instincts.Espiner pointed out that Labour is looking to govern rather than campaign its way to election day, and as Campbell said, 'why wouldn't they?'. Given National's recent disarray and the minor parties battle with the five percent threshold, Labour's biggest is risk is over-reach and some sort of own-goal…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

What impact will the return of Covid in the community have on Election 2020? Plus Gerry Brownlee's conspiracies, Labour's Ardern-astic launch, and Merv & Mellow in Auckland Central.By Tim WatkinCampaigns suspended just as they began. Election day in doubt. And - following the 'words beginning with C' theme from last week's Caucus podcast - heated debate over conspiracies and constitutional conventions as Covid returns to the community. This week in politics has been a disaster for Election 2020; you might even call it a cluster%$&!.The announcement Tuesday evening of four new cases of Covid-19 in the community stopped the election campaign in its tracks. With advance voting due to start in 23 days, the prime minister now faces a tough decision. Delay or stay the course towards September 19? Given parliament wasn't dissolved this week, Jacinda Ardern retains the discretion to change the election day at will. But practically the Electoral Commission will need time to adapt and in the interests of fairness she will need to consult with all parties in parliament.Politically, it's in Labour's interests to stick with September 19. As Scott Campbell says in the podcast, the longer uncertainty goes on, if transmission spreads, and as the economic damage grows, the riskier it gets for the governing parties and Labour in particular.For now, Ardern has the daily podium of power, what is effectively a party political broadcast, which gives Labour a distinct advantage over other parties. With uncertainty in the air, voters may be more reluctant than ever to change governments. Incumbency is her friend. For now.But if community transmission takes a turn for the worse and our largest city stays locked down for a long period, the public mood could quickly change. Either uncertainty over the source of transmission or a source that can be blamed on the government puts at risk Labour's comfortable lead in the polls. As Lisa Owen points out, Labour could employ a 'low target' strategy, waiting it out until election day. Now, there are so many moving parts it doesn't have the control it had a week ago.While it's National's leader Judith Collins raising questions about Ardern's daily press conferences so close to an election and the advantage they offer, Ardern herself may want to be far from the press galleries searing questions as the days go by.On that other side of the fence, a delayed election could be a boon for National. Judith Collins has a mountain to climb and the longer she gets to climb it, the better. Moving it to late November, closer to Christmas, will put pressure on vote counting and coalition negotiations. So next year may be better than…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

Parties try to look tough as border policies are rolled out, Labour fails its testing test and what are the implications of delaying the election?By Tim WatkinThese are testing times for New Zealanders, as Auckland spends two weeks at level three. But news over the past week that the testing at our borders has fallen far short of what the government promised has put Labour on the back foot and opened the door to its opponents.National and New Zealand First have stepped up with border protection policies that seek to out-tough each other. While Winston Peters said he'd "take every step" to improve our management of Covid-19, Judith Collins played to her "crusher" reputation insisting, "tough times need tough measures".Both parties are looking to capitalise on Labour's growing reputation for porousness - from people escaping from isolation facilities to a failure to test all workers at the border. While Labour is the face of mismanagement - and it's noticeable the party is trying to keep Jacinda Ardern's face away from the tough questions, with Chris Hipkins and Megan Woods stepping forward to take the flak - the temporary wire fences surrounding quarantine hotels are becoming emblematic of a government still in makeshift mode, having to make up a response as it goes along. Such is the danger of incumbency; ministers this week are looking tired.New Zealand First, by contrast, is promising to bring in the military to take over quarantine facilities, moving those in isolation to existing military bases at the likes of Ōhakea and Waiouru. They want a new Border Protection Force reporting to one Cabinet minister to lead New Zealand's Covid-19 response. Voters have to decide how credible it is that a party sitting around the Cabinet table can point the finger at "the government".Winston Peters got his announcement out just ahead of National, which is also promising a new Border Protection Agency and one dedicated minister. National would also require all people travelling to New Zealand (including citizens) to be tested before they board the plane (or boat), mandate contact tracing for frontline border workers, aim to cut test waits to one hour and require rest-home workers to be tested regularly. Both parties are stressing that their plans are long-term and sustainable…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

As Auckland struggles through a "tricky" extended lockdown, who are the political winners & losers? We debate covid fatigue, who's won from the wage subsidies (hint: not women) and two up-for-grabs electorates - Ōhāriu and Whanganui.By Tim WatkinIt's been a tricky week for the country, especially the third of all New Zealanders living under lockdown level 3 in Auckland. And it's turned politics on its head. National and ACT trying to outspend Labour. The left-leaning government being criticised for not doing enough for women and its poorest citizens. Listen hard enough and you might even have heard that rarest of things, sympathy for Aucklanders from those who live south of the Bombays.In Caucus this week, the team aren't convinced Aucklanders deserve too much credit, given the traffic on the road, the minimal mask use and stories of people leaving their neighbourhoods to go hither and yon. The mood in Auckland this week has felt more like despair than resilience, more clinging on than rallying together. And these signs of fatigue will be sure to have been noticed by Cabinet, as it tries to walk the tricky line between public health and the public will.Jacinda Ardern has been using the word "tricky" a lot this week, as Guyon Espiner says, presumably because it's worked on focus groups. Time again she has described the virus as "tricky", as if it was a person, an opponent. ACT leader David Seymour called out the Prime Minister for blaming the outbreak on the Covid-19 coronavirus, rather than taking responsibility for border failures. National's Health spokesperson Dr Shane Reti in parliament forced Health Minister Chris Hipkins to admit that not everyone in isolation are getting the day three tests, as had been widely believed. While Hipkins argued from a public health point of view that it's the day twelve test that matters and no-one is released without a negative test, Lisa Owen pointed out it's a performance measure. Politically, it's another fail and one that reminds voters of the tests not carried out at the border.For now, Labour's political immunity to Covid-19 seems to be holding, however. The public are fed up, but the Caucus crew don't see it costing many votes yet. Just as at the 2011 election John Key could point to Wall St and American mortgages as the cause of the Global Financial Crisis and say we are better off than most, Ardern is saying the virus is not the fault of her government and it is handling it better than most.For some voters this latest outbreak may even underline a desire not to change horses in the midst of a pandemic. It's the hardest time to be an Opposition party, when even the government's own failings could work in its favour…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

Greens leader James Shaw has been under the cosh for his Green School decision, but what's going on behind the scenes and will it cost votes? Social media rears it's sulky head, vaccination lies and debate over 'the single source of truth'. Plus, is Winston Peters in cabinet or not?By Tim WatkinIt's a rule of the playground, probably even at a Green School. Naughty kids can get away with things good kids can't because, well, people don't expect anything else. They can smoke behind the bike-sheds and just get a glare and a warning. But if the school prefect is caught doing the same thing, there's hell to pay. Expectations and reputations matter, at school and in politics. As James Shaw is being reminded this week.In this scenario, laid out by Guyon Espiner on today's Caucus election podcast, the ever-suited Shaw is the prefect. The good kid who never makes a fuss and sets an example. That's long been key to the Green Party brand - that they don't get down and dirty like those other kids. Kids like, well, Winston Peters, for example.Shaw has made Peters a focus of his criticism this year, arguing that the New Zealand First leader has played fast and loose with the government agenda, been an agent of "chaos" in cabinet and seemed to support policies only to u-turn after months of work. Peters, says Shaw, is the school bully and wants rid of him next term.But that casting was turned on its head this week with news Shaw had not only backed $11.7m of government funding for the Green School, a private school in Taranaki, but told his coalition partners wouldn't sign off on $600m in other infrastructure funding unless the Green School was on the list.As Espiner says, it's not entirely fair on Shaw. He's usually the halo pupil, but the one time he goes off for that metaphorical smoke behind the bike-shed, he gets caught and hauled over the coals. He gets damned as a pork-barreler for insisting on $11.7m for a private school, while Peters commits $72.5m to the racing industry with far less criticism, 'because that's just Winston'.Indeed, this week Peters has broken with collective cabinet responsibility to damn his own government's response to Covid-19. Having claimed credit for New Zealand's initial success, yesterday Peters said Labour was responsible for the government's recent failings, despite the fact he sat around the cabinet table, took part in the decision-making and has been no less than Deputy Prime Minister throughout. As Espiner and Scott Campbell point out, past ministers have resigned before criticising cabinet decisions. Yet Peters hasn't been called out. So when exactly is a government minister, not a government minister?…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

Labour's tax policy is tentative, but is it also 'right for right now'? And is it negotiable? Judith Collins' policy releases point to less Crusher, more Kinder. Plus, how to mess up TV debates and the Matariki mood.By Tim WatkinIt was one of the big unanswered questions every political junkie was waiting for. No, not National's Infrastructure Bank. Definitely not a new public holiday. Though we'll come to those. It was Labour's tax policy. How brave would it be? Would Labour dare to promise transformation or would it play it safer?We got the answer yesterday - a new top tax rate of 39 percent for those earning over $180,000. A promise to try a bit harder on taxing multi-nationals. And that was it. As Guyon Espiner says in today's Caucus podcast, if 'tax is love' then this was a peck on the cheek. An elbow bump at best.Is this the tax policy Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson dreamed of unveiling through their long years in Opposition? By no means. They believe in a Capital Gains Tax. They would certainly tax harder if they could. But Robertson's argument is that what has largely been described as a timid approach to tax policy is the "right thing to do right now".And have no doubt, it is timid. In 2014 David Cunliffe's policy was 36 percent on income over $150,000 and in 2011 Phil Goff's 'tax switch' involved an interest free zone and 39 cents over $150,000. Back when Labour last introduced a new top tax rate - under Helen Clark in 1999 - it was 39 cents on incomes over $60,000 (which is around $90,000 in today's money). Even with the move to a 39 percent top tax rate New Zealand will still have the 12th lowest top tax rate of the 36 countries in the OECD; so staying in the bottom third. Australia's is 47 percent, Canada's 53.5 and Britain's 45. And given it cuts in only at $180,000 - as Robertson endlessly repeats, it only taxes the top two percent of earners - it's at the conservative end of the developed world.In sum: timid.The Caucus crew though acknowledge it does the job politically, taking tax off the table at the election this year. If the Left are frustrated, the Right are disarmed. Perhaps even more importantly, Robertson's comments that this is the right move for our times suggest that Labour's read is that the electorate is more volatile and jumpy than many believe. Scott Campbell agrees, saying that if they'd gone much further it would have dramatically lengthened the odds on a Labour victory, maybe even putting it at risk. Amidst a global pandemic, voters are anxious and easily frightened. Tax is a policy that Labour knows from bitter experience is one that can change the way people vote. Hence the caution. …Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details