Labour's tax policy is tentative, but is it also 'right for right now'? And is it negotiable? Judith Collins' policy releases point to less Crusher, more Kinder. Plus, how to mess up TV debates and the Matariki mood.

By Tim Watkin

It was one of the big unanswered questions every political junkie was waiting for. No, not National's Infrastructure Bank. Definitely not a new public holiday. Though we'll come to those. It was Labour's tax policy. How brave would it be? Would Labour dare to promise transformation or would it play it safer?

We got the answer yesterday - a new top tax rate of 39 percent for those earning over $180,000. A promise to try a bit harder on taxing multi-nationals. And that was it. As Guyon Espiner says in today's Caucus podcast, if 'tax is love' then this was a peck on the cheek. An elbow bump at best.

Is this the tax policy Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson dreamed of unveiling through their long years in Opposition? By no means. They believe in a Capital Gains Tax. They would certainly tax harder if they could. But Robertson's argument is that what has largely been described as a timid approach to tax policy is the "right thing to do right now".

And have no doubt, it is timid. In 2014 David Cunliffe's policy was 36 percent on income over $150,000 and in 2011 Phil Goff's 'tax switch' involved an interest free zone and 39 cents over $150,000. Back when Labour last introduced a new top tax rate - under Helen Clark in 1999 - it was 39 cents on incomes over $60,000 (which is around $90,000 in today's money).

Even with the move to a 39 percent top tax rate New Zealand will still have the 12th lowest top tax rate of the 36 countries in the OECD; so staying in the bottom third. Australia's is 47 percent, Canada's 53.5 and Britain's 45. And given it cuts in only at $180,000 - as Robertson endlessly repeats, it only taxes the top two percent of earners - it's at the conservative end of the developed world.

In sum: timid.

The Caucus crew though acknowledge it does the job politically, taking tax off the table at the election this year. If the Left are frustrated, the Right are disarmed. Perhaps even more importantly, Robertson's comments that this is the right move for our times suggest that Labour's read is that the electorate is more volatile and jumpy than many believe. Scott Campbell agrees, saying that if they'd gone much further it would have dramatically lengthened the odds on a Labour victory, maybe even putting it at risk. Amidst a global pandemic, voters are anxious and easily frightened. Tax is a policy that Labour knows from bitter experience is one that can change the way people vote. Hence the caution. …

Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details