DHUnplugged Podcast

Patriot games are coming. Larry Ellison in the spotlight. Hi Ho Silver and away! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants! - ELON gets his $$$ - Kids account challenge - Patriot games are coming... Markets - Not much headwinds - EOY approaching - Analysts predicting SP500 for 2026 - 7,500 (12% upside) - More Oracle back and forth - Gold and Silver Elon - Elon Musk's net worth surged to $749 billion late Friday after the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Tesla stock options worth $139 billion that were voided last year - He also recently received a $1T pay plan approval - Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jensen Huang combined - His fortune exceeds the GDP of nations like the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland. - He is richer than every country in Africa by GDP - He is projected by some reports to become the world's first trillionaire by 2027 When did Larry Ellison and Oracle become newsworthy? - Every day in the news.... - Larry Ellison NOW Personally Guarantees Paramount Bid for Warner Bros. - The announcement of Mr. Ellison’s personal guarantee is meant to address concerns that the Warner Bros. Discovery’s board had expressed about Paramount’s original offer. - Helping out sonny-boy? More Oracle - Oracle stock slid after a report that Blue Owl Capital won’t back a $10 billion data center for OpenAI. (Michigan) - Oracle has $248 billion in lease commitments for data centers and cloud capacity commitments over the next 15 to 19 years. - Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks. EVEN MORE! - Multiple media outlets, including the Associated Press, reported that ByteDance has reached an agreement with Oracle ORCL, Silver Lake, and Abu-Dhabi-based MGX to set up a joint venture for TikTok’s US operations. Oracle will hold a 15.0% stake in the new entity, while ByteDance will retain a 19.9% stake. - The important thing her is that TikTok stays as a major tenant of OCI as ORCL needs this cash flow... - Of all of the items, this may be why ORCL stock has bounced te last few days. Congressional Ban - A vote on legislation banning members from owning or trading stocks could get a vote in the new year, according to House leadership and Republican members. - President Donald Trump has said he supports a congressional ban but has pushed back on versions that include the executive branch. - Basically this bill would prohibit the ownership of individual stocks by congress Over to Japan - Bank of Japan raises benchmark rates to highest in 30 years, lifting 10-year JGB yield past 2% - Yen still VERY weak - trading at 157/USD - (problematic) - The BOJ said that real interest rates are expected to remain “significantly negative,” adding that accommodative financial conditions will continue to firmly support economic activity. - The yen weakened 0.25% against the USD after the decision - therefore still dovish and stimulative Economic Numbers - Estimates, partial numbers and best guesses. OH, 2-month averaging as well - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual headline inflation rate and core CPI rate for last month were 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, well below expectations. - Due to government shutdown, BLS to make certain methodological assumptions about the prior month’s inflation levels. - Those assumptions in the methodology were not clear to economists and were not fully explained in the release. - Here is a big issue: The price changes in October for the OER (owners equivalent rent) appear to have been “set to zero.”  Sports Prediction Markets - Sports is fueling the growth and is forecasted to make up 44% of volume as prediction markets mature. - According to one expert: the fundamental elements of consumer demand and an array of diverse brands looking to meet that demand are clearly in place - Sportsbooks are getting a bit nervous.... First Dell, then... - Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and his wife, Barbara, committed to seed Trump accounts for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. - Following the Dells’ pledge, the funds will be aimed at kids who live in a Connecticut ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. - The Dalio grant will fund $250 per child for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. This applies to children who live in a ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. About 87% of Connecticut ZIP codes meet that criteria, according to a CNBC analysis of Census Bureau data. - “Ray has joined what we are calling the 50-state challenge,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a press conference on Wednesday. - A growing number of companies have announced they would match contributions to Trump accounts for their employees, including BNY and BlackRock. Patriot Games (Hunger Games?) - Trump announced: The Washington Monument will be illuminated with festive lights, a triumphal arc will be constructed and the “Patriot Games” will commence. The games are an “unprecedented four-day athletic event featuring the greatest high school athletes: one young man and one young woman from each state and territory. - Uhhhhhh "And so it was decreed that, each year, the various districts of Panem would offer up, in tribute, one young man and woman to fight to the death in a pageant of honor, courage and sacrifice. (Hunger Games 2012) - What next - PURGE NIGHT? Fed Pick - Now it seems as if it is a 4 person race... - President Trump says "Nowadays, when there is good news, the market goes down because everybody thinks that interest rates will be immediately lifted"; says "I want my new Fed Chairman to lower interest rates if the market is doing well"; says "Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!" San Fran Blackout - Alphabet-owned Waymo resumed its robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area Sunday evening after pausing it amid widespread blackouts that had affected their vehicles’ behavior. - Waymo said it worked with city officials throughout the blackout and had “proactively” initiated a temporary suspension of its service. - Interesting point there - what happens when grid disruptions for internet with self-driving Angry Shareholders (For a minute) - Tricolor CEO Daniel Chu directed a deputy to send him $6.25 million in bonuses in August, weeks before the company filed for bankruptcy, U.S. prosecutors alleged. - Subprime autofirm that had alleged fraud - This happens all the time - Big issue to keep alert to is the news about "Subprime" WEED - Trump’s executive order shifts cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, easing research, banking and tax restrictions and marking the biggest federal cannabis policy change in decades. - Shares of cannabis conglomerates were down following the announcement, likely from worries of new competition from international companies. - NOT legalization - NOT for recreational use... - Banking, Institutional capital ..... OpenAi - Beggars cup continues - OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer’s effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp. - The deal under discussion could value OpenAI north of $500 billion and see it adopt Amazon’s Trainium chip, a person with knowledge of the matter said, asking to remain anonymous to describe private negotiations. - Talks, however, are at a preliminary stage and terms could change, the person added. High Ho Silver and Away! - Silver up 135% YTD - Gold up 70% - Best year since strongest annual performance since 1979 for Gold - 1970's was inflation, USD weakening, Energy crisis. - What is similar/different now? (Big difference is buying up (China, Poland, Turkey, India) Light menu - Darden Restaurants will roll out a new lighter portion entrées menu at all Olive Garden locations in January, the company announced during its quarterly earnings call last Thursday. - Citing affordability: "Olive Garden has seen a double-digit increase in affordability perceptions from guests who order from the lighter portions menu and an increase in frequency among these guests, which should help build traffic over time," Cardenas said. - Sooooo 0 due to high costs, Americans are cutting back on food? - If it were for weight loss, no need for Oliver garden to cut back on portions as most inedible anyway... Copper - Copper prices topped $12,000 a ton for the first time, extending the metal’s recent bull run as mine outages add to concerns about supply. - The threat of US import tariffs on the metal has also been an important factor pushing up prices this year, with copper piling up in American warehouses. - Industry analysts have said that much of the richest and most easily accessible mining resources are now exhausted, and experts are warning that the market is on the cusp of a major deficit. Jim Beam - Bourbon maker Jim Beam is halting production at one of its distilleries in Kentucky for at least a year as the whiskey industry navigates tariffs from the Trump administration and slumping demand for a product that needs years of aging before it is ready. - Jim Beam said the decision to pause bourbon making at its Clermont location in 2026 will give the company time to invest in improvements at the distillery. The bottling and warehouse at the site will remain open, along with the James B. Beam Distilling Co. visitors center and restaurant. - The percentage of U.S. adults who say they consume alcohol has fallen to 54%, the lowest by one percentage point in Gallup’s nearly 90-year trend. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSES

SpaceX IPO coming – huge increase in valuation over past 3 months Happy Hanukah – Eight Crazy Nights Now Kevin AND Kevin PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Last Chance for CTP Cup 2025 participants - Happy Hanukah - Eight Crazy Nights - Sad News - Rob Reiner - Fed decision is out.... - Overdue eco reports coming this week Markets - Oracle still problematic - SpaceX IPO coming - huge increase in valuation over past 3 months - Another Bankruptcy - cleaning up is not good business - Oh my - Now Kevin AND Kevin - Weight loss game continues - One thing saved for last - a doozie... Tesla -  - All time High - Prospect of Robotaxi - Even though sales hitting multi-year lows Wall Street Never Sleeps? - Nasdaq files to extend trading to 23 hours on weekdays - Banks concerned about investor protections, costs, liquidity, volatility risks of nonstop trading - Proponents argue round-the-clock trading benefits global investors - That may create some additional volatility potential SpaceX - SpaceX aims for a potential $1.5 trillion market cap with an Initial Public Offering in 2026, which could become the largest IPO in history - July 2025 tender valuation was $400B - Dec 14th (4 months later) $800B - Starlink is the primary money winner of this deal - Tesla shares climbing even with nothing behind it - seemingly in sympathy for this IPO ---- TESLA does not have ownership of SpaceX - OH - this could be the reason....U.S. deliveries dropped significantly in November—the lowest since early 2022—but this weakness has been overshadowed by the enthusiasm for autonomy. Rob Reiner - A son of legendary Hollywood director Rob Reiner and his wife, producer Michele Singer Reiner, Nick Reiner, is being held on suspicion of murder following their deaths, according to Los Angeles Police Department Chief Jim McDonnell. He’s being held on $4 million bail. - Citing law enforcement sources and family friends, ABC News reported on Monday that Nick Reiner had recently returned to live at his parents' South Chadbourne Avenue home. The move was described as a temporary arrangement intended to help him stabilize. - Not going to discuss the Truth Social post about this tragedy HEADLINE ALERT - "Copper could hit ‘stratospheric new highs’ as hoarding of the metal in U.S. continues" - Copper has gone from 5.77 to 5.30 (July to today) - 6 Tops at this price since 2011 - Not seeing this as per the headline - seems like a Hunt Brothers special from the 1980s - CORNERING THE MARKET ---1980 - Silver went from $11 to $50 then crashed, bankrupting the Hunt Bros - after COMEX changed rules forcing them to cover positions Bankruptcy - After 35 years, the maker of the Roomba robot vacuum filed for bankruptcy protection late Sunday night. Following warnings issued earlier this year that it was fast running out of options, iRobot says it is entering Chapter 11 protection and will be acquired by its contract manufacturer, China-based Picea Robotics. - The company says it will continue to operate “with no anticipated disruption to its app functionality, customer programs, global partners, supply chain relationships, or ongoing product support.” - Remember that Amazon  - The Amazon buyout of iRobot, maker of Roomba, was announced in 2022 for $1.7 billion but ultimately failed in January 2024 due to significant regulatory pushback, primarily from the EU, over anti-competitive concerns. -- Amazon walked away with a $94 million termination fee Fed Pick - President Donald Trump said Friday that Kevin Warsh has moved to the top of his list as the next Federal Reserve chair, though Kevin Hassett also remains in contention, according to the Wall Street Journal. - Interesting that this comes days after Hassett said that we would not let outside suggestions influence his voting - ---In addition to putting heavier weight on Warsh getting the job, Trump repeated an assertion he has made in the past that the Fed chair ought to consult the president about interest rate decisions. - Also of interest, prediction markets had Hassett at 95% probability - now it moved to 50% - big payday for people in the know. Housing Prices - Average home price is DOWN on  year-over-year basis - First time on national level since 2024 - Active listings in November were nearly 13% higher than November 2024, but new listings were just 1.7% higher --- Houses are on market longer - - Prices in Austin, Texas, are down 10% from last year; in Denver, they’re down 5%, according to Parcl Labs. Tampa, Florida, and Houston both saw prices fall 4%, and Atlanta and Phoenix saw price decreases of 3%. More Hosing Related -  Zillow shares plunged more than 9% on Monday on worries that the online real estate platform could have a big new competitor: Google Search. - Google appears to be running tests on putting real estate sale listings into its search results. Overdue Eco  - Black Hole - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday releases its long-awaited combined employment reports for October and November, but a number of key details will be missing after the government shutdown prevented data collection, including October's unemployment rate, resulting in the first-ever gap in that critical data series since inception in 1948. - NICE JOB GANG! - Some of the data will be estimated. - It said it would not publish the headline CPI number or the so-called core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, for October. "BLS cannot provide specific guidance to data users for navigating the missing October observations," the agency said. Some Updates - Some info coming in are estimates - some delayed - Unemployment at 4.6% - Latest report shows +64,000 added - ISM Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing - both slowed over the last month The Fed - Meanwhile the Fed cuts rates.... - A Federal Reserve split over where its priorities should lie cut its key interest rate Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, but signaled a tougher road ahead for further reductions. - The FOMC’s “dot plot” indicated just one more reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, amid considerable disagreement from members about where rates should head. - In addition to the rate decision, the Fed also announced it will resume buying Treasury securities. The central bank will start by buying $40 billion in Treasury bills, beginning Friday. - Markets were all over the place on this as it was a little confusing at first - then it seemed that everyone loved (for one day) - Why is the Fed moving up Treasury purchases to "immediately" from a few months from now? - AND - dissension ! A larger group  that usual of regional Fed bank presidents signaled they opposed the cut, and six policymakers said the benchmark federal funds rate should end 2025 in a range of 3.75% to 4%, suggesting they opposed the move. - Long bonds have not moved at all on this news. Costco Earnings - Costco beat Wall Street’s fiscal first-quarter sales and revenue expectations. - Sales rose 8.2% and digital sales jumped 20.5% compared with the year-ago quarter. - Costco surpassed Wall Street’s quarterly expectations and posted year-over-year sales growth of 8.2% as the retailer attracted more digital sales and opened new locations. - Earnings per share: $4.50 vs. $4.27 expected - Revenue: $67.31 billion vs. $67.14 billion expected - Costco does not provide year ahead guidance - Shares down from a recent high of $855 Costco Fun Facts - About 4.5 million pies were sold in the three days before Thanksgiving, which is equivalent to roughly 7,000 pies per warehouse. -  These were bakery pies (e.g., pumpkin, apple), - Costco had more than $250 million in non-food online orders on Black Friday, a record for Costco’s U.S. e-commerce business. - Approximately 358,000 whole pizzas were served at Costco's U.S. food courts, a 31% jump from last year. (500 pizza's per store) Fat No More - Retatrutide - Eli Lilly said its next-generation obesity drug delivered what appears to be the highest weight loss seen so far in a late-stage trial and reduced knee arthritis pain, clearing the first of several upcoming studies on the weekly injection. - In a 48-week Phase 2 study, participants on the highest dose lost an average of 24% of their body weight. - Recent Phase 3 results showed patients on the highest dose lost an average of 28.7% of their body weight after 68 weeks. - The trials also showed improvements in related health conditions, including knee osteoarthritis pain, blood pressure, and liver fat - This triple action is what makes retatrutide potentially more effective for weight loss than existing medications like Zepbound (tirzepatide), which targets two receptors, or Wegovy (semaglutide), which targets only one. Paypal - PayPal Holdings Inc. applied to become a bank in the US, looking to take advantage of the Trump administration’s openness to financial-technology companies entering the banking system. - The payments-focused firm submitted applications to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Utah Department of Financial Institutions to form a Utah-chartered industrial loan company, PayPal said in a statement Monday. - If approved, PayPal Bank would help the firm bolster its small-business lending capabilities, according to the statement, which said the company has provided access to more than $30 billion in loans and capital since 2013. Ford - Management Confused - Instead of planning to make enough electric vehicles to account for 40 percent of global sales by 2030—as it pledged just four years ago—Ford says it will focus on a broader range of hybrids, extended-range electrics, and battery-electric models, which executives now say will account for 50 percent of sales by the end of the decade. - The automaker will make

We are Green-lighting! Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2) Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden A Chocolate Craze PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2) - Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden - Chocolate Craze Markets - NVDA gets the greenlight - Waiting for the ECO - ALL eyes...... Wednesday at 2pm - Oil Dropping - Gas Prices Dropping slightly - Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here - Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet.... Inflation - PCE comes in a little lighter than expected - However, let us be clear that inflation is not lower and prices grossly above where we were a couple of years ago - Inflation still running at around 3% overall - Fed set to greenlight the rate cut Oil and Gas - Oil has been dropping - reports that use will slow over the next year - Gas Prices Dropping slightly - Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here - Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet.... Jobs - Reports show that U.S. employers have announced over 1.1 million job cuts in 2025 (as of early December), marking the highest level since the pandemic's start in 2020. - This has been driven by tech integration (AI), economic shifts, and soft consumer spending, with sectors like government, tech, retail, and warehousing leading. Greenlight - No security problems here - Seeking a compromise over controlling exports to China, the US Department of Commerce will soon allow the export of powerful Nvidia GPUs that are roughly 18 months behind its most advanced offerings, according to a person with knowledge of the plan. - The move, which would send Nvidia H200s to China, seeks to find a middle ground between those who oppose exports of any advanced AI chips and those who worry that restrictions will merely hand the market to Chinese competitors. - It also aims to satisfy the Chinese government, which has blocked imports of less powerful chips, such as Nvidia’s H20. - This can be gamed ..... - OHHHH - and USA to get 25% of the sales ???? China Not With Program - China is buying soybeans again, but short of President Trump's target, according to CNBC - Really think this is a big game and will not resolve anytime soon - China still holds the cards ECO Data Starting to Flow Again - BLS to publish October PPI data with the November PPI news release on January 14, 2026 - Unemployment report released Dec 16th - This week is a little slow but next week (Dec 15-19) kick it up hard - - - Dec 19 Income and Spending , PCE report, Housing starts, Retail Sales, CPI (Nov), Leading Indicators, Philly Fed, UMich Sentiment Apple Turnover - Not the pastry - In just the past week, Apple’s heads of artificial intelligence and interface design stepped down. - Then the company announced that its general counsel and head of governmental affairs were leaving as well. - All four executives have reported directly to Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook Berkshire Too - Todd Combs, one of Warren Buffett's investing lieutenants and the CEO of GEICO, is departing Berkshire Hathaway and joining JPMorgan Chase in a new role as part of a major shake-up involving both firms. - Combs is leaving Berkshire Hathaway and his role leading GEICO to run the bank's new investment group as part of its wider "security and resilience" initiative announced in October. AI Frames - Warby Parker and Google announced that the first lightweight, AI glasses developed through their partnership are expected to launch in 2026 - What will be different about these? All others have seemed to failed miserably. Mergers - Maybe - Netflix announced Friday it’s reached a deal to buy pieces of Warner Bros. Discovery, bringing a swift end to a dramatic bidding process that saw Paramount Skydance and Comcast also vying for the legacy assets. - The transaction is comprised of cash and stock and is valued at $27.75 per WBD share - Others are offering $30 CASH per share - President Trump has put in his comments that he thinks it may be a tough one to clear - $2.8B breakup fee if Warner Brothers pulls out and $5.8B reverse break up fee if the deal is not approved. Oracle Earnings - Wednesday after the bell - This is the poster child for the vendor and circular financing - Stock was the darling for a minute a few months ago - Written: "The stock has fallen roughly 32-40% from its September 10 peak, erasing its "Nvidia moment" rally and turning Oracle into the primary vehicle for expressing skepticism about the AI build-out and OpenAI's economics." - Briefing analyst Forgot this... - What happened to the Tik Tok deal and the China bad discussion? --- History.... - Negotiations happened between ByteDance, Oracle, and Walmart back in 2020, and later discussions continued under “Project Texas” for U.S. data security. - The proposed structure (Oracle as tech partner, U.S. investors taking a stake) was announced but never finalized into a binding acquisition or spin-off. - Instead, TikTok remained under ByteDance ownership, while implementing U.S. data storage and security measures through Oracle. - The U.S. government extended deadlines multiple times, but no sale or transfer of ownership occurred. - China wins again! So much winning! Private Credit  - Private markets investing startup Yieldstreet, now calling itself Willow Wealth, recently informed customers of new defaults on real estate projects in Houston and Nashville, Tennessee. The letters, obtained and verified by CNBC, account for about $41 million in new losses. - They come on the heels of $89 million in marine loan wipeouts disclosed in September and $78 million in losses previously reported by CNBC. - Willow Wealth also removed a decade of historical performance data from public view in recent weeks. - Total losses? $208 million Pistachios - Dubai Craze - Milk chocolate shell filled with: - Pistachio cream (often blended with tahini for a nutty, slightly savory note) - Kadayif (shredded phyllo pastry) for crunch - Created in 2021, went viral in 2023 via the SOCH -  United States, Iran, and Turkey the biggest producers of pistachios - Argentina betting on it to continue  - adding to their farmland to cover the demand - Dubai Chocolate Bar (the viral pistachio-knafeh chocolate) generated over $50–$60 million in global sales for the year. IndiGo - In November, new Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules increased pilot rest periods. - IndiGo failed to adjust crew rosters, causing a severe pilot shortage during peak travel season. - 1000s of flights cancelled - IndiGo apologized and implemented measures like processing refunds, arranging transport/hotels for stranded passengers, and strengthening customer support. - As of this week - still having major problems - stock don 20% from its high on this news (not traded in USA) Grok Report - Using Grok as Copilot is getting a little weird....ChatGPT a little slow - Photo to video clip - pretty cool - Image generation - FAST! - Can have full on conversations and even companions.....(?) - More racy than other Ai (as is to be expected) Age 18+  options - Interesting nd impressive thus far. OMG  - Brown Nosing - Stellantis said it will bring an all-electric small “car” called the Fiat Topolino to the U.S. - The Topolino is actually categorized as “an all-electric quadricycle” rather than a car, according to Stellantis and has a top speed of roughly 28 miles per hour. - Fiat’s announcement comes less than a week after President Donald Trump praised small “Kei” cars from Japan and expressed interest in bringing tiny cars to the U.S. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Winner of the CTP Cup for IBIT Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 Calling a Code Red! Sam Altman’s declaration PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - Winner of the CTP for IBIT - Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 - Calling a Code Red! Sam Altman's panic - Here come the Tariff lawsuits - - Smart Toilets are a thing (And learning the Bristol Scale) Markets - Horses can smell the barn.... Seasonal Trends - PR Teams - full throttle - (This is their Social Media) - Tax planning over the next couple of weeks may see some selling into year end Impressive Results - India's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 8.2% in the quarter ended September against a forecast of 7.3% in a Reuters poll and 7.8% expansion in the previous quarter, data released last Friday showed. - The Indian government has cut consumer taxes on hundreds of items and implemented long-delayed labour reforms in the last three months as it tries to keep the domestic economy strong in the face of global uncertainties. - Strongest in 6 quarters - Economists said stockpiling for the festive season as well as expedited exports ahead of the 50% tariff deadline on August 27 might have contributed to the quarterly growth figures. - Manufacturing output rose 9.1% in the quarter ending in September from a year earlier against growth of 7.7% a quarter ago, while construction expanded 7.2% year-on-year from 7.6% a quarter ago. NVDA Spreading Out - Nvidia on Monday announced it has purchased $2 billion of Synopsys common stock as part of a strategic partnership to accelerate computing and artificial intelligence engineering solutions. - As part of the multiyear partnership, Nvidia will help Synopsys accelerate its portfolio of compute-intensive applications, advance agentic AI engineering, expand cloud access and develop joint go-to-market initiatives, according to a release. - Nvidia said it purchased Synopsys’ stock at $414.79 per share (Now at $445) Amazon Ultra Fast Service - The parent company of Instacart fell nearly 4% after Amazon said it’s testing “ultra-fast” delivery of groceries in Seattle and Philadelphia. - These deliveries take about 30 minutes or less, said Amazon. - Doordash and other delivery companies stocks also fell. Microstrategy - Strategy - Stock has been under pressure - Who knows what the company actully does anymore - Leverage Bitcoin play - issuing massive debt and convertibles to but Bitcoin - Stock down 39% this year and 52% 1 -year (Up 400% in the last 5 years) -Bitcoin dropped below $87k this week before staging a recovery bounce. Devil's Metal - Silver has outpaced gold in 2025, with a growth of about 71%, compared to gold’s 54%. - Silver mine production has been decreasing for the past ten years, especially in Central and South America, due to mine closures, resource depletion and infrastructure challenges. - While industrial demand for silver is expected to decline slightly in 2025, the metal is increasingly used in electric vehicles, for AI components and in photovoltaics. - Some people are saying that people were having to transport silver by plane rather than on cargo ships to meet delivery demand INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Some Trump Updates: - Reiterates his view that Chair Powell should reduce rates. - Says he's negotiating with Democrats on healthcare. - Plans to give refunds out of collected tariffs. Crying Game - SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son on Monday downplayed the decision to offload the conglomerate’s entire Nvidia stake, saying he “was crying” over parting with the shares. - Speaking at a forum in Tokyo Monday, Son addressed SoftBank’s November disclosure that the firm had sold its holding in the American chip darling for $5.83 billion. - According to Son, SoftBank wouldn’t have made the move if it didn’t need to bankroll its next artificial intelligence investments, including a big bet on OpenAI and data center projects. Are Stocks Overvalued? CAPE RATIO Consumers... Consumer Confidence CODE RED -  Chief executive Sam Altman reportedly declared a “code red” on Monday, urging staff to improve its flagship product ChatGPT, an indicator that the startup’s once-unassailable lead is eroding as competitors like Google and Anthropic close in. - In the memo, reported by the Wall Street Journal and The Information, Altman said the company will be delaying initiatives like ads, shopping and health agents, and a personal assistant, Pulse, to focus on improving ChatGPT. This includes core features like greater speed and reliability, better personalization, and the ability to answer more questions, he said. - Herein lies the problem with this entire tech market - what if ChatGPT fades to the sideline with $1.5Trillion promised over the next 5-7 years? - Remember, Google declared a Code Red after the arrival of ChatGPT. AI Takeover - Massachusetts Institute of Technology on Wednesday released a study that found that artificial intelligence can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, or as much as $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, health care and professional services. - The study was conducted using a labor simulation tool called the Iceberg Index, which was created by MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. - The index simulates how 151 million U.S. workers interact across the country and how they are affected by AI and corresponding policy. Costco Sues - Costco filed a lawsuit asking for a full refund of tariffs the warehouse club giant has paid since President Donald Trump imposed “reciprocal” and “fentanyl” tariffs earlier this year. - Costco sued the Trump administration to get a full refund of new tariffs it paid so far this year, and to block those import duties from continuing to be collected from the retail warehouse club giant as a Supreme Court case plays out. - Costco is worried that it would lose the money even if the Tariffs were deemed illegal. Fat Cutting -  Eli Lilly said it is lowering the cash prices of single-dose vials of its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound on its direct-to-consumer platform, LillyDirect. - Starting Dec. 1, cash-paying patients with a valid prescription can pay $299 to $449 per month for Zepbound vials on LillyDirect, depending on the dose, down from a previous range of $349 to $499 per month. - The announcement comes just weeks after President Donald Trump inked deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to make their GLP-1 drugs easier for Americans to access and afford. Smart Toilets - This year industry giants Toto Ltd. and Kohler Co. introduced smart toilets capable of analyzing what is in the bowl - Launched in August, the latest model in the Neorest line starts at roughly $3,200. - It uses an LED light and a sensor to read the shape, color, hardness and volume of stool as it drops, and sends data to a smartphone app in less than a minute. - Each toilet can support as many as six users — enough for most households — while some companies have bought multiple units for their employees. Toto aims to sell 7,300 units annually by 2028. - For now the stool-scanning Neorest is available only in Japan. - The app analyzes bowel movements against the Bristol scale, which is commonly used to diagnose constipation, inflammation or diarrhea, and offers simple recommendations such as eating more fiber and drinking more water, or even menu suggestions, like vegetable soup. Bristol Scale Feel Good - Entrepreneur Michael Dell and his wife, Susan, will deposit $250 in the individual investment accounts of 25 million American children in a $6.25 billion philanthropic pledge as part of the Trump administration's Invest America initiative. - $250 each child born after between 2015 and 2025 - The money will go to the accounts of children who live in ZIP codes where the median family's income is $150,000 or less, according to a spokesperson for the Dells. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Announcing the Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Here is the list of players: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Rough Week – does not phase bulls! Bitcoin – Bottoming? Let’s take a look at Walmart and Target again Homeowners! Mortgage Reform? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Short Week - Markets closed on Thursday and short Friday (1pm) - Can't have a down week for TDAY! - Too much table talk - Recession News - Let's take a look at Walmart and Target again - Homeowners! Mortgage Reform? Markets - Rough Week - does not phase bulls! - Bitcoin - Bottoming? - NVDA - China Bound? - NASDAQ Weighting Inflation - Still Up There - They are now pressing for a cut in December (How are we handicapping this?) - All of a sudden the parade of Fed speakers - all seem a bit more dovish. Meanwhile - President Donald Trump on Friday rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including such staples as coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice, in the face of growing angst among American consumers about the high cost of groceries. - oranges, acai berries and paprika to cocoa, chemicals used in food production, fertilizers and even communion wafers. Quantum Stocks GOOD NEWS! - NO Recession risk! - Bessent says inflation due to services economy, not tariffs - Treasury secretary says Republicans should end filibuster in event of another shutdown - Bessent says administration working to lower prices where it can - Banking and insurance,  Software development and cloud services, Tourism, Restaurants and hospitality , Professional services (law, accounting, consulting) Rigging it - NEC Director Kevin Hassett emerges as frontrunner for Fed Chair as President Trump nears decision, according to Bloomberg Weird News - Buried in the NVDA earnings report - Remember back in September, the two companies announced a massive partnership that would include a $100 billion investment over time by Nvidia into OpenAI. - Nvidia said in its quarterly financial filing that there’s no guarantee that the company will finalize an agreement with OpenAI. - Soooooo - is this all hot air???? More NVDA - Here we go. Another reversal - President Donald Trump will make a final decision on whether to allow Nvidia Corp. to sell advanced artificial intelligence chips to China. - The decision involves weighing the promotion of economic expansion against protecting national security, according to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. ------ Read that again - money versus national security - Allowing the sales would mark a significant easing of restrictions imposed in 2022 to prevent Beijing and its military from accessing the most powerful US technologies. Chip in question: H200 - Had some discussions about this - might as well as they will just get it on their own and this way we can control. (On the other hand, they have a long history of outsmarting us) EVEN MORE - NVIDIA issues memo to CNBC: The company said "We are not aware of any claims that NVDA has improperly capitalized operating expenses. Several commentators allege that customers have overstated earnings by extending GPU depreciation schedules beyond economic useful life" | - The tip of the Iceberg - this is what Michael Burry has been pressing..... HPQ Earnings - HP Inc. beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus; increases dividend; announces company-wide initiative, includes job cuts - Stock down 6% Amazon - The Spend keeps going... - Amazon.com Inc. says it will spend as much as $50 billion expanding its capacity to provide artificial intelligence and high-performance computing services to US government entities. - Amazon Web Services plans to break ground next year on what will ultimately be 1.3 gigawatts of additional capacity across data centers designed for federal agencies, the company said in a blog post on Monday. Google/Berkshire - Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), further reduced its stake in Apple - Google on a ramp since - new Gemini and... - Meta Platforms Inc. is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, adding to a months long share rally as the search giant has made the case it can rival Nvidia Corp. as a leader in artificial intelligence technology. - Meta is in discussions to use the Google chips — known as tensor processing units, or TPUs — in data centers in 2027, and may rent chips from Google’s cloud division next year. - Really smart people at Berkshire? What did they know? NASDAQ 100 - Uninvestable? - Top 10 stocks are over 70% weighting - SP500 top 10 stocks = 38% - This is not a diversified approach any longer - Coming up on next week's TDI Podcast - Howard Silverblatt - S&P Dow Jones - Keeper of the data Something They Don't Want You To Know - “Magnificent 7” Companies Reported Lowest Earnings Growth Since Q1 2023 - With NVIDIA reporting actual results for Q3 on November 19, all the companies in the “Magnificent 7” have now reported earnings for the third quarter. - “Magnificent 7” companies reported actual earnings growth of 18.4% for the third quarter. This earnings growth rate is below the average earnings growth rate of 28.8% for these seven companies over the previous four quarters. Novo Nordisk - Pummeled - Shares of Novo Nordisk on Monday fell to a four-year low after the Danish pharmaceutical company said a highly anticipated trial for Alzheimer’s disease failed to meet its main goal. - The trial tested whether semaglutide — the active ingredient in Novo’s blockbuster diabetes and weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy — helped slow progression for Alzheimer’s disease. -While treatment with semaglutide resulted in improvement of Alzheimer’s disease-related biomarkers in two separate trials, this did not translate into a delay of disease progression, Novo said in a statement Monday. The goal had been to slow patients’ cognitive decline by at least 20%. - Reminiscent of Pfizer - after Covid shot had noting left... Bitcoin - Live by the sword.... - iShares Bitcoin Trust had $2.2 billion in net outflows in November, according to WSJ - Big month of losses for crypto - not too much mention and support by Whitehouse - Selling started - coincidentally with  the pardon of Changpeng Zhao, the convicted founder of the Binance Remember DOGE - DOGE disbanded eight months ahead of scheduled end in July 2026 - Former DOGE employees take new roles in administration - Elon Musk initially led DOGE, promoting its work on social media - bagged out when stock tanked - DOGE claimed to have slashed tens of billions of dollars in expenditures, but it was impossible for outside financial experts to verify that because the unit did not provide detailed public accounting of its work. Walmart - Walmart raised its sales and earnings outlook last week as the retailer posted revenue gains in its fiscal third quarter, driven by double-digit e-commerce growth and new customers across incomes. - The retailer said it expects full-year net sales to climb between 4.8% and 5.1%, up from its previous expectations of 3.75% to 4.75%. - It said it expects its adjusted earnings per share to range from $2.58 to $2.63, a slight raise from its prior range of $2.52 to $2.62. - Stock went vertical ---- - Much different story than Target - WMT up 16% YTD - TGT down 37% Beef Prices - Not Going Down - Tyson Foods stock rallying on Monday following the company's official confirmation that it will shutter its Lexington, Nebraska, beef facility, a strategic move that validates earlier reporting by The Wall Street Journal. - The decision comes as the meat and poultry giant grapples with historically low U.S. cattle inventories, which have severely compressed margins and led to a reported $426 mln adjusted operating loss for its beef segment in FY25.| - Seems that investors like this decisive cost-cutting measure, viewing the capacity reduction as a necessary step toward restoring profitability in a challenging commodity environment. Japan - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.40 billion) economic stimulus package last Friday, marking the first major policy initiative under the new leader, who has pledged to pursue expansionary fiscal measures. - The package includes general account outlays of 17.7 trillion yen, far exceeding the previous year's 13.9 trillion yen and representing the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. It will also include 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts. - Problem is that the Yen is sliding and intervention is imminent - Inflation issue and they will make it worse with this stimulus Larry Summers? - Epstein Files - IS there any There , There? Talk about a 50 Year Mortgage? - Such a bad idea  - and these boneheads think it is smart - 30-Year Mortgage Monthly Payment: $1,610.46 Total Payment: $579,767.35 Total Interest Paid: $279,767.35 - 50-Year Mortgage Monthly Payment: $1,362.42 Total Payment: $817,449.78 Total Interest Paid: $517,449.78 Thanksgiving Costs 2025 National Average (American Farm Bureau Survey) - 2025: $55.18 for a classic dinner for 10 people (about $5.52 per person) - 2024: $58.08 for the same meal - Change: Down 5% year-over-year This is the third consecutive annual decline since the record high of $64.05 in 2022. Key Drivers Turkey prices dropped sharply: A 16-pound frozen turkey averages $21.50, down 16% from 2024. Sides are mixed: Dinner rolls and stuffing are cheaper (down 14.6% and 9%). Sweet potatoes and veggie trays are much higher (up 37% and 61%). Regional Differences South: $50.01 (most affordable) West: $61.75 (most expensive) Classic Meal for 10 ($55???????) 16-pound turkey (frozen, whole) Stuffing mix (14 ounces) Sweet potatoes (3 pounds) Rolls (12-count package) Peas (1 pound) Cranberries (12 ounces) Carrots and celery (for a veggie tray) Pumpkin pi

Tariff juggling – just moving them around – no studies, no rationale Big Moves – One of the worst Novembers since 2008 The Big Short – End of a Era? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Last Few Days for IBIT CTP - Closing Price This Friday - The Big Short - End of a Era? - What is happening to Bitcoin? - THC laws changing - interesting loophole closed Markets - Tariff juggling - just moving them around - no studies, no rationale - Big Moves - One of the worst Novembers since 2008 - Hindenburg Omen - Fed Losing Cred WHY? - If tariffs are not inflationary and this administration has brought down prices on groceries.... - President Trump signed an EO Friday lowering tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas, according to Bloomberg - So , just shooting from the hip on all of this are we? --- Seriously, where is the plan, where is the analysis, where are the results? Total horseshit More Tariffs - Switzerland and U.S. agree to trade deal; U.S. will lower tariffs to 15% from 39%; Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 billion by the end of 2028 - Switzerland will reduce some import duties on US Imports - For other US export interests, a solution was agreed that takes Switzerland's agricultural policy interests into account: under the agreement, Switzerland will grant the US duty-free bilateral tariff quotas on selected US export products: 500 tonnes for beef, 1,000 tonnes for bison meat and 1,500 tonnes for poultry meat. - Furthermore, Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 bln by the end of 2028. - What did we accomplish here? - Just going back to what it was with a slightly higher tariff on Swiss goods than before...BECAUSE WE WERE GETTING KILLED WITH FOOD COSTS Fed Update - Markets no longer view December as a sure bet - Lots of Fed speakers out with commentary that is hawkish - Currently, there is a 46% chance of a rate cut by 0.25% - a month ago it was at 95% - AND, they should not cut in the absence of all data (Stephan Miran looking for 0.50%, but he is a total tool) More Horseshit! - Former Federal Reserve Board Gov. Adriana Kugler broke the central bank’s rules regarding stock trading, according to a report released by the U.S. Government Ethics Office. - Now we know why she abruptly resigned a few months ago - That disclosure shows two kinds of violations of Fed rules regarding financial transactions by senior officials at the central bank: purchases of stocks of individual companies, as opposed to mutual funds; and purchases of securities during so-called “blackout periods” leading up to and after Federal Open Market Committee meetings. - Oh - Supposedly her husband did it - but come on! - Fed losing more credibility - this is not the first time.... StampFlation - The Postal Service filed notice with the Postal Regulatory Commission for Shipping Services price changes to take effect Jan. 18, 2026. The proposed adjustments were approved by the governors of USPS this week. - The change would raise prices approximately 6.6 percent for Priority Mail service, 5.1 percent for Priority Mail Express service, 7.8 percent for USPS Ground Advantage and 6.0 percent for Parcel Select. BIG - Michael Burry, the investor whose successful bets against the U.S. housing market in 2008 were recounted in the movie "The Big Short," is closing his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management. - In a letter to investors dated October 27, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, Burry said he would liquidate the funds and return capital, "but for a small audit/tax holdback" by the end of the year. - "My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets," Burry said in the letter. - Put on a big OPTIONS short on NVDA and PLTR - We checked and his Registration expired.. Has about $155 million under management - not so much.. - He hinted that he will be back doing something and will announce on November 25th... Softbank - We know that they CUT all of their NVDA holdings - Looking at the 13F, also cut ORCL - New position in INTC - Looking to raise significant cast to outlay to private companies over the next couple of months. - Stock is up 120% YTD, DOWN 12% last week - Did you know He had for many years the distinction of being the person who had lost the most money in history (more than $59 billion during the dot-com crash of 2000 alone, when his SoftBank shares plummeted), a feat surpassed by Elon Musk in the following decades. THC Blues ??? - A new ban, tucked into legislation ending the longest shutdown in history, outlaws products containing more than 0.4 milligrams of total THC per container. == Industry executives said that threshold will wipe out 95% of the $28 billion hemp retail market when it takes effect in a year. - 300,000 jobs could be effected ($28 billion annually) - Possible that state laws will win out, but clearly Federal laws are not going the way of the industry. - Concern that the blackmarket will grow again - However, this can be seen in several ways as it may be cleaning up some of the selling of things like Delta-8 those weird knock-offs seen at gas stations) UK Tax Scrap - British government bond yields rose sharply on Friday morning as investors react to reports that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will scrap an expected increase in income tax. - The moves came as investors reacted to a report from the Financial Times of an income tax U-turn. - Remember that they did a similar plan a few years ago that caused major havoc with markets and currencies until they withdrew the idea. How Does This Work? - House Republicans drafting legislation that will redirect Affordable Care Act subsidies to individuals and away from health insurance companies, according to Politico Some Eco ...?? - Employment Situation for September 2025 that was supposed to be released on Friday, October 3, 2025, will now be release  Thursday, November 20, 2025 8:30 AM ET - What about October? White House says it may NEVER be released Hindenburg Omen - There was some excitement in the world of technical analysis the past two weeks as we saw 5 separate signals fire for something called the Hindenburg Omen. This is a warning signal of trouble, but trouble does not always come. What is fair to say is that Hindenburg Omen signals have appeared at every major stock market top going back several decades. - According to Tom McClellan: The current count of 5 signals is not as big as some other clusters. But we got 4 signals in a cluster at the end of 2021, ahead of the 2022 bear market. So 4 is enough, if the market is inclined to live up to this warning. And 2 signals were enough back in December 2024 and March 2025 to tell us about the trouble in the market which unfolded in the April 2025 tariff reaction minicrash. But 5 is better. Pied Piper - Losing Followers - OpenAi plans to invest $1.4 Trillion over the next 5 years or so - Biggest beneficiary - Oracle - Stock went from $250 to $340 overnight - now a $220 (Full Round-trip) - Oracle is looking to raise $38 billion in debt sales to help fund its AI buildout, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the information is confidential. Bloomberg reported on the planned debt raise last month. Disney Earnings - Hmmmmm...... - Shares fall 8% as revenue misses - Digging in for a prolonged flight with YouTube - The company also missed quarterly revenue expectations as the cable weakness overshadowed strong growth in the company's streaming and parks businesses central to its growth. - Family of 4 - Trip to Disney - A  3-night trip with tickets and dining is estimated to be between $6,000 and $9,000 Starbucks - Can it get any worse for this company? - Starbucks Workers United launched a strike in more than 40 cities and 65 stores on the day of chain’s Red Cup Day sales event. - NY incoming Mayor Mandami says there should be a total boycott of the stores - The union is pushing for improved hours, higher wages and the resolution of hundreds of unfair labor practice charges levied against Starbucks. Buffett - Berkshire - Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), and further reduced its stake in Apple (AAPL), detailing its equity portfolio for the last time before Warren Buffett ends his 60-year run as chief executive officer. - They also sold more Bank of America - *6% reduction - although still the thrid largest stockholder - Sold homebuilder DR Horton - Bought position in Domino's Pizza and Chubb ---- DPZ chart looks terrible Over to China - Economy not getting any better - Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.7% for the first ten months of the year, steepening from a 0.5% decline in the January-to-September period. - Retail sales climbed 2.9% in October from a year earlier, softening from a 3% year-on-year rise in September. - Industrial output expanded 4.9% in October, a slowdown from a 6.5% rise in the prior month. - The last time China recorded a contraction in fixed-asset investment was in 2020 during the pandemic, according to data going back to 1992 from Wind Information, a private database focused on the country. Electric Prices - We know that the new wave of data centers are requiring HUGE amounts of energy to keep them running - Residential utility bills rose 6% on average nationwide in August compared with the same period in the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. - Prices are going up in some of the areas that have big data warehouses are climbing faster -Prices, for example, surged by 13% in Virginia, 16% in Illinois and 12% in Ohio. - Did some research - Global data cen

NEW CTP for IBIT Under/Over – Looks like the OVER Presidential PARDONS and A King’s EVICTION All Excited – Making headway on the Deficit ! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - NEW CTP for IBIT - Under/Over - Looks like the OVER - Presidential PARDONS and A King's EVICTION - All Excited - Making headway on the Deficit ! Markets - DJIA hits new ATH - after big moves last week - Buyers stepped in (again) - NASDAQ - lagging as AI trade is questioned - THEREFORE - what is happening is a simple rotation again - ALL IN! Just back from a wedding in NJ - Did some Apple picking, hot cider and donuts! Pardon Me... - President Donald Trump has pardoned a long list of his political allies for their support or involvement in plans to overturn the 2020 presidential election, according to the Department of Justice’s Pardon Attorney, Ed Martin. - Several others (20+) were pardoned as well including some that plead guilty. Over the Pond - King Charles III on Thursday stripped his disgraced brother Prince Andrew of his remaining titles and evicted him from his royal residence after weeks of pressure to act over his relationship with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, Buckingham Palace said. - After the king’s rare move, which follows years of shameful scandals, he will be known as Andrew Mountbatten Windsor and not as a prince, and he will have to vacate his Royal Lodge mansion near Windsor Castle. Debt - The U.S. government’s gross national debt surpassed $38 trillion Wednesday, a record number that highlights the accelerating accumulation of debt on America’s balance sheet. - It’s also the fastest accumulation of a trillion dollars in debt outside of the COVID-19 pandemic — the U.S. hit $37 trillion in gross national debt in August this year. - “During his first eight months in office, President Trump has reduced the deficit by $350 billion compared to the same period in 2024 by cutting spending and boosting revenue,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement, adding that the administration would pursue robust economic growth, lower inflation, tariff revenue, lower borrowing costs and cuts to waste, fraud and abuse. - Petersen Foundation: “Along with increasing debt, you get higher interest costs, which are now the fastest growing part of the budget,” Peterson added. “We spent $4 trillion on interest over the last decade, but will spend $14 trillion in the next ten years. Interest costs crowd out important public and private investments in our future, harming the economy for every American.” - Debt Growing by $69,000 per second over the the past year... Stock New - BIG Softbank - Softbank sells entire stake in NVDA - $5.83 Billion - To soften the blow, they said that it as because they are using it to redeploy further into AI - OpenAi to be specific - Also sold part of T-Moblie and using margin loan against ARM to fund the $22.5 BILLION investment in OpenAI - “This should not be seen, in our view, as a cautious or negative stance on Nvidia, but rather in the context of SoftBank needing at least $30.5bn of capital for investments in the Oct-Dec quarter, including $22.5bn for OpenAI and $6.5bn for Ampere,” Rolf Bulk, equity research analyst at New Street Research, told CNBC. - IMPORTANT SO MARKETS DO NOT GET SPOOKED: ?[SoftBank] made a point of saying that it wasn’t any view on NVIDIA. ... At the end of the day, they are using the money to invest in other AI related companies,” he said. Coreweave Earnings - The provider of infrastructure for artificial intelligence companies, reported better-than-expected third-quarter revenue on Monday, but the company delivered disappointing full-year guidance. - The company reported a net loss of $110 million, narrowing from about $360 million in the same quarter last year. - Problem at one of their data centers - basically they are not up and running at potential - Stock dropped 15% (Stock ran up to $185 in June and now at $88 MasterCard and Visa -  Visa and Mastercard announced a revised $38 billion settlement with merchants who accused the card networks of charging too much to accept their credit cards, hoping to satisfy a judge who rejected a smaller accord as inadequate. - Monday's settlement would end 20 years of litigation in which businesses accused Visa, Mastercard and banks of conspiring to violate U.S. antitrust laws, including through the card networks' collection of "swipe fees." - The settlement calls for Visa and Mastercard to lower swipe fees, which averaged 2.35% in 2024 and typically range from 2% to 2.5%, by 0.1 percentage point for five years. -- Retail Merchants Associations still not happy about this... - Merchants would also get more options to impose surcharges when people pay by card, including an "unfettered" ability to charge up to 3%, according to a court filing. - STILL they charge 20%-35% (The highest variable rate advertised for a specific card is 36% on the First PREMIER® Bank Mastercard Credit Card.) A Head Scratcher - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said Thursday that the artificial intelligence startup is on track to generate more than $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate this year, with plans to grow to hundreds of billions in sales by 2030. - The company has inked more than $1.4 trillion of infrastructure deals in recent months to try and build out the data centers it says are needed to meet growing demand. - Question: It is almost impossible for companies with a long track record, stable business and known clientele to project out one year as things change so fast in the economy. How can a recent startup with new technology that is unknown the use in the future project out 5 years? Tesla - The vote is in and Elon got his pay package! - Update: Elon Musk is the richest person in the world as of November 2025, with a net worth that has approached and briefly crossed $500 billion Economy K Shape - U.S. consumer sentiment slumped to near a 3-1/2-year low in early November as households across the political spectrum worried about the economic fallout from the longest government shutdown in history, which has caused disruptions ranging from food benefit payments to grounded flights. - The current level is closing on on the worst in 20 years - Democrats are really in the dumps, while Republicans are upbeat (91 vs 33)  - High earners happy - lower earnings very unhappy. - For the economy? Consider that the top 20% of households by income drive 40% of consumer spending Employment - Job cuts for October totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. - It was the highest level for any October since 2003 and has been the worst year for layoffs since 2009. - Challenger reports the highest level of layoffs coming from the technology sector amid a time of restructuring due to AI integration. Companies in the sector announced 33,281 cuts, nearly six times the level in September. - In total, companies have announced 1.1 million cuts this year, a 65% increase from a year ago and the highest level since the Covid pandemic year of 2020. Rate Cuts? - Miran says half-point cut ‘appropriate’ for December, but Fed should at least reduce by a quarter point (What a tool!) - “If you’re making data for what, if you’re making policy for what the data are now, you are backward looking, because it will take 12 to 18 months for that to hit the economy. So you need to make policy now based on where you think the economy is going to be a year to a year and a half from now.” - SOOOOOO - he thinks the economy is slowing over the next 12-18 months? Doesn't that conflict with how great Kevin Hasset Even so.....Can't be all bad... - Levi's will sell its new line of $300 jeans in more stores next year as it looks to boost growth by tapping into strong demand for premium denim, Chief Financial and Growth Officer Harmit Singh told Reuters. - Launched in Asia earlier this year, and in around two dozen stores in Europe and the U.S. since September, the Blue Tab range of higher quality jeans and shirts is part of an ongoing push to broaden the Levi's brand and attract more women. - In Europe, Blue Tab jeans sell for between about 250 and 350 euros ($290-410), compared with between 70 and 130 euros for its Red Tab line. Blue Tab jackets sell for around 700 euros. EV Hangover - Ford Motor is reportedly considering permanently ending production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck amid mounting losses and more challenging market conditions for EVs. - Ford's President, when asked last month by media about Lightning production potentially ending, said the company’s main priority was gas-powered models. - F-150 Lightning sales this year through October are roughly level compared with a year earlier at only 24,577 units. Since going on sale in 2022 in the U.S., Ford has sold less than 100,000 F-150 Lightning models. SAD NEWS - A 208-year-old publication that farmers, gardeners and others keen to predict the weather have relied on for guidance will be publishing for the final time. - Farmers' Almanac said Thursday that its 2026 edition will be its last, citing the growing financial challenges of producing and distributing the book in today's “chaotic media environment.” Access to the online version will cease next month. - The Maine-based publication, not to be confused with the even older Old Farmer’s Almanac in neighboring New Hampshire, was first printed in 1818. For centuries, it's used a secret formula based on sunspots, planetary positions and lunar cycles to generate long-range weather forecasts. Bad News For Stock Insiders? - Nancy Pelosi said she will not seek reelection to Congress. - Pelosi, 85, has served in the House for nearly four decades, presiding over the passa

Supreme Court Ruling on tariffs within weeks…. Say goodbye to the penny! November heading for a potential fall. Splits – Are they back? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter NEED A NEW CTP - How About a Crypto ETF? (IBIT) INTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up - Supreme Court Ruling on tariffs within weeks.... - Say goodbye to the penny - November heading for a potential fall - Prediction - When will US Government Reopen - New Term - AI Washing Markets - OpenAI - even more deals - Palatir Earnings - Serepta FLOP -AMAZON BLOWOUT - Splits - Are they back? Election Day - Updates? The SAME Stories are making their way around - Seasonally good time for equities - Don't fight the Fed - Earnings trend - Buybacks again Under/Over on When US Government Opens - November 10th - Under/Over? November Outlook - On the heels of a good October... - Question: How much more is in the tank for blowouts? Earnings season is about over and what are other catalysts - Aside from Santa? - More NVDA excitement? More OpenAi deals??? - So much good news is priced in it is hard to imagine HUGE upside AI Washing - AI washing is a deceptive marketing tactic where companies exaggerate or falsely claim to use artificial intelligence in their products to appear more innovative and advanced. - It is also used when layoffs occur to say that there is less need for employees due to advances in technology. - Corporate giants Amazon, UPS and Target each announced layoffs in recent weeks totaling more than 60,000 jobs cut this year. Amazon - Great earnings - stock up HUGE to ATH ater the report - Amazon beats by $0.38, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line - Reports Q3 (Sep) GAAP earnings of $1.95 per share, $0.38 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.57; revenues rose 13.4% year/year to $180.17 bln vs the $177.91 bln FactSet Consensus. - Co reports Q3 operating income, excluding items, of $21.7 bln vs prior guidance of $15.5-20.5 bln. - North America segment sales increased 11.2% yr/yr to $106.27 bln. - International segment sales increased 14.0% yr/yr (+10% CC) to $40.90 bln. - AWS segment sales rose 20% yr/yr (+20% CC) to $33.01 bln. - Advertising Services rose 24% yr/yr (+22% CC) to $17.70 bln. - Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $206-213 bln vs. $208.41 bln FactSet Consensus. Co guides to Q4 operating income of $21-26 bln. OpenAi and Amazon - OpenAI has signed a $38 billion deal with Amazon Web Services, and will immediately start accessing Nvidia’s graphics processing units. - This is one of OpenAI’s biggest moves away from Microsoft, which was the company’s exclusive cloud provider until earlier this year. - The partnership gives OpenAI the flexibility to scale infrastructure through 2026 and beyond. - Under the agreement announced on Monday, OpenAI will immediately begin running workloads on AWS infrastructure, tapping hundreds of thousands of Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) in the U.S., with plans to expand capacity in the coming years. - Amazon up another 5% Palantir Earnings - Palantir Technologies prelim Q3 $0.21 vs $0.17 FactSet Consensus; revs $1.18 bln vs $1.09 bln FactSet Consensus - Palantir Technologies sees Q4 revs $1.327-1.331 bln vs $1.18 bln FactSet Consensus - Stock up slightly - been on a rager lately.... ATH - Stock down 8% on Tuesday - most of the good news is priced in? AMD Earnings - Advanced Micro Devices beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (250.05 -9.60) - Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.20 per share, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.17; revenues rose 35.6% year/year to $9.25 bln vs the $8.76 bln FactSet Consensus. - On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin was 54%, operating income was $2.2 billion, net income was $2 billion and diluted earnings per share was $1.20. Our third quarter results did not include any revenue from shipments of AMD Instinct MI308 GPU products to China. - Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $9.3-9.9 bln vs. $9.21 bln FactSet Consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 54.5%. - Down 3% after hours Netflix - Announces a 10-1 split - Commentators are all a flutter about this - so good for the small investor - ARE THEY THAT STUPID? - Example NFLX shares at $1,100 - does that preclude someone that has $250 from buying?????? ==== NO! Partial share ownership is available with most brokerages... Supreme Court dealing with Tariffs - Lower courts ruled that Trumps use of tariffs are not lawful. - Latest tirade against Canada is not a good showing for the "national security" use of tariffs - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the Supreme Court to uphold the IEEPA-based tariffs. ----> But if it strikes down the tariffs, Bessent said in an interview, the administration will simply switch to other tariff authorities, including Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows broad 15% tariffs for 150 days to calm trade imbalances. --- So they are not really national emergencies, just a Presidential authority that they will try to fit into a standing power? ----LET'S JUST SAY WHAT IT IS..... PUNITIVE MEASURES FOR FUN INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ China "Deal" - After a careful review - China won that match by a mile - China buying soybeans, says they will try to stop Fentanyl (U.S. reduced tariffs on that) and less restrictive rare earth exports out of China.... - So, what do we have ? Maybe a benefit to the farmers, nothing gained otherwise... - They checkmated us with the Rare Earths... - Not a deal - nope... Please do not call it a deal.... - EXACTLY THE SAME AS TRUMP 1.0 on this one... Headcounts - Several companies are talking about layoffs. - Amazon 10k - 30k - META (small) - Now the discussion is turning to WHY - AI or consumers? - Big story-line is the excess buildup post COVID and fear by companies that employees were scarce - that is changing. - On the other hand - Microsoft is hiring Singularity  - Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman says only biological beings are capable of consciousness, and that developers and researchers should stop pursuing projects that suggest otherwise. - “I don’t think that is work that people should be doing,” Suleyman told CNBC in an interview this week at the AfroTech Conference in Houston, where he was among the keynote speakers. “If you ask the wrong question, you end up with the wrong answer. I think it’s totally the wrong question.” - Thoughts??? Say goodbye to the Penny - US no longer makes pennies - Retailers are worried about profits if they cannot provide, they may have to round up to a nickle when they make change for a transaction - In fact there is some panic about this it appears.... - Why can't a place just round to the nickle on the sale?????? Seems simple (they pass on other costs to consumers all the time) NEED HELP! - Watching TV and a Bombardier commercial for one of their jets comes on.. - Fastest private airplane in the world -Global 8000 - "See a dawn that never ends" (If I am flying into the dawn EAST, as they show in the commercial, on a very fast plane - Dawn is quick and over.) - See a sunset that never ends... isn't that a more truthful and better line? Morgan Stanley AND Goldman CEOS -  Tag Team - Talking about how a correction could be coming - Can they create corrections with their comments? - All about perception, outlook and confidence...... Serepta - Nice Bounce... Then: - Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) plunged 40% after its late-stage Duchenne trial failure and weak sales overshadowed a slight earnings beat. -Q3 2025 revenue fell 15% year-over-year, driven by lower ELEVIDYS sales and ongoing restructuring efforts, despite steady demand for its PMO portfolio. Shein - Child like Sex Dolls on their site - After France's consumer watchdog found sex dolls resembling children for sale on Shein's platform, finance minister Roland Lescure threatened on Monday to block Shein's access to the French market if it ever sold such dolls again. - France is working on fast fashion law that may crimp Shein sales - so this is a way for France to go after competition with its fashion firms. - Shein is supposed to be opening outlets in several malls and stores in France New Financial Hub - Y'All Street? - Financial services firms have increased their presence in the state of Texas in recent years as they diversify their strategic footprint beyond the traditional financial hub of New York City's Wall Street. - Meanwhile: Greg Abbott Threatens ‘100% Tariff’ On New Yorkers Moving to Texas   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE WINNER of The Closest to The Pin for Lithium Americas (LAC)    Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Exhaustion signals TESLA – a rabbit out of a hat! Fed meeting in focus S&P earnings week – its a big one PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Don't fight the tape - Exhaustion signals everywhere - but plenty of money floating around it seems - Seeing lots of overheated signs..... - BUT, everything is fine. Nothing to worry about Markets - Fed Meeting today and tomorrow - Rate decision on Wednesday - Biggest week for earnings (S&P) - ATH - Let' GO! First time over 6,780 for the S&P 500 - Profit margins with those Tariffs - Surprise! - Emerging markets - On FIRE! Factoid - Ft Lauderdale Boat Show - The economic impact of the Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show (FLIBS) is significant, generating over $1.78 billion in economic output for Florida, supporting more than 100,000 jobs, and creating millions in sales and taxes. The Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show is considered to be the largest boat show in the world, with over 3 million square feet of exhibition space across multiple marinas. Godcaster is turning churches into local radio stations - Get the Godcaster app on Android and iOS - An Adam Curry Project Fed Meeting - Stock and All time highs - GOLD, SILVER rocking - Crypto doing just fine - GDP good - Employment good - Housing market improving - Limited information about economic activity due to Government is CLOSED - Inflation is well about Fed's own measures (3%) - FED IS GOING TO LOWER RATES REMEMBER - NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT - TRUST THE GOVERNMENT  CPI - The consumer price index showed a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%, both lower than expected. - Excluding food and energy, core CPI showed a 0.2% monthly gain and an annual rate also at 3%, less than forecast. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the data specifically because the Social Security Administration uses it as a benchmark for cost-of living adjustments in benefit checks. Otherwise, the federal government has suspended all data compilation during the shutdown. Quick Meme Update - BYND - fell back to earth - down to $1.75 from $7 last week... - We should have shorted for the game like we talked about - It was supposed to be the next Apple! Qualcomm News! - They are in the game now - seems that Qualcomm now has the goods to compete with AMD and NVDA - Stock up 15% on this news (AMD and NVDA unfazed) - Qualcomm’s data center chips are based on the AI parts in Qualcomm’s smartphone chips called Hexagon neural processing units, or NPUs. - Nearly $6.7 trillion in capital expenditures will be spent on data centers through 2030, with the majority going to systems based around AI chips, according to a McKinsey estimate. (3% of of annual GDP for the ext 5 years) Why Not Intel? - The U.S. has formed a $1 billion partnership with Advanced Micro Devices  to construct two supercomputers that will tackle large scientific problems ranging from nuclear power to cancer treatments to national security, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and AMD CEO Lisa Su told Reuters. - The U.S. is building the two machines to ensure the country has enough supercomputers to run increasingly complex experiments that require harnessing enormous amounts of data-crunching capability. The machines can accelerate the process of making scientific discoveries in areas the U.S. is focused on. NVDA Spending Spree - Massive announcements today and $1billion stake in Nokia - Nokia announced on Tuesday that Nvidia is taking a $1 billion stake in the networking company, the latest partnership for the artificial intelligence chipmaker. - Shares of Nokia soared 26% higher following the news. - Nokia will issue more than 166 million new shares and will use the proceeds to fund its plans for AI and other general corporate purposes. - The two companies also struck a strategic partnership to work together to develop next-generation 6G cellular technology. Nokia said that it would adapt its 5G and 6G software to run on Nvidia’s chips, and will collaborate on networking technology for AI. Government Shut Down - Flight Delays - NO EBT starting November - High pressure tactics that will be used in the future - Pulling some benefits from Blue States - Need to have new plan to deal with these politicians  - are they getting paid? YES Farmer Scott - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he has “felt pain” from China refusing to buy American soybeans during a trade conflict with President Donald Trump. - “I’m actually a soybean farmer,” he told ABC News’ “This Week.” - SURPRISE! Part of the Framework deal with China is that China will again start buying soybeans Cathy Wood - Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood on Tuesday pushed back on fears of an artificial intelligence bubble, while flagging the possibility of a “reality check” on AI valuations. -  Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy on the sidelines of Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative, or FII, in Riyadh, Wood said that as interest rates begin to rise, “there will be a shudder” in markets. - “We are going to reach a moment in the next year where the conversation will shift from lower interest rates to rising rates,” the closely watched investor said. NO WAY JOSE - Not good.... this needs to be explained and reversed... - The mystery donor whose $130 million contribution is meant to pay U.S. military troops during the government shutdown is Timothy Mellon, an heir to a renowned Gilded Age banking family, The New York Times reported Saturday. - But Mellon’s donation works out to only about $100 per service member. It costs nearly $6.4 billion to pay U.S. troops every two weeks. - And using his money might run afoul of federal law, according to the Times, which cited two people familiar with the matter in identifying the billionaire railroad magnate as the donor. - This invites all sorts of potential problems and conflict of interest. Plus, can we just say where we want our tax dollars to go to? How about those Profit Margins? - Given concerns in the market about tariffs and higher costs, what is the S&P 500 reporting for a net profit margin for Q3? - The blended net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q3 2025 is 12.8%, which is equal to the previous quarter’s net profit margin, but above the year-ago net profit margin and above the 5-year average. - In fact, this quarter marks the 6th consecutive quarter that the S&P 500 is reporting a net profit margin above the 5-year average (12.1%). - --- BUT that 5-yr average includes some hard times... - At the sector level, four sectors are reporting a year-over-year increase in their net profit margins in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, led by the Financials (19.9% vs. 18.0%) and Utilities (16.7% vs. 14.8%) sectors. On the other hand, six sectors are reporting a year-over-year decrease in their net profit margins in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, led by the Communication Services (13.8 vs. 14.8%), Real Estate (34.3% vs. 35.2%), and Health Care (7.3% vs. 8.2%) sectors. Is this the new normal? - The Dutch government has invoked control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, under its Goods Availability Act. - Following the announcement by The Hague, Wingtech’s Shanghai-listed shares plunged 10% to hit its max daily limit. - The Dutch government has taken control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, in an extraordinary move to ensure a sufficient supply of its chips remains available in Europe amid rising global trade tensions. - Nexperia, a subsidiary of China’s Wingtech Technology, specializes in the high-volume production of chips used in automotive, consumer electronics and other industries, making it vital for maintaining Europe’s technological supply chains. OpenAI - Following up on the vendor financing and circular financing - OpenAI has close to a TRILLION DOLLARS of commitments over the next 10 years. - Signed a deal with AMD last we spoke and spiked that stock 40% (OpenAI could option for 10% ownership through warrants) - As part of the arrangement, AMD issued a warrant that gives OpenAI the ability to buy up to 160 million shares of AMD for 1 cent each over the course of the chip deal. The warrant vests in tranches based on milestones that the two companies have agreed on. MORE.... - Questions starting to get raised about the possibility of OpenAI actually being able to fund these deals. - Example - Oracle repricing - DOWN 18% Tesla - Bad earnings - no problem! Let's announce more Robotaxi potential and now ROBOTS - Horrible  earnings, with a really ugly margin compression from expected (500bps) - Just wait a day or so and the stock rebounds from $417 to $457 on a PR blitz to show that there is still the chance that the dream of Autonomous driving will happen AND - Tesla chair Robyn Denholm pleaded with shareholders to approve CEO Elon Musk's unprecedented compensation package, one that could cost the company $1 trillion, with the threat of Musk leaving the company. - In a letter sent to shareholders Monday morning, which follows a prior letter sent last week, Denholm warned the company stands to lose Musk's leadership if shareholders do not approve the plan. Amazon - Amazon is planning to cut as many as 30,000 corporate jobs beginning on Tuesday, as the company works to pare expenses and compensate for overhiring during the peak demand of the pandemic, according to three people familiar with the matter. - The figure represents a small percentage of Amazon’s 1.55 million total employees, but nearly 10% of the company’s roughly 350,000 corporate employees. This would represent the largest job cut at Amazon since around 27,000 jobs were eliminated starting in late 2022. Target - Company said on Thursday it’s cutting 1,800 corporat

A new crisis is brewing – banking sector again Markets is sideways mode The scary tariffs and a walk back Apple News…….. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter We’re dedicating this episode to Sophia Maria — someone very special who left us too soon... Warm-Up - A new crisis is brewing - banking sector again - Markets is sideways mode - The scary tariffs and a walk back - Apple News........ - Announcing the WINNER of the CTP for LAC Markets - Yields dropping - Region bank scare due to 2/3 bankruptcies (new stress) - Fed stops tightening - why is that? - TACO trade is back - Buig Tech earnings on the way "Just when you think that the coast is clear - the banks will somehow screw things up" US Government Shutdown - Day 19? Bitcoin - Hits all-time high above $125,000 - then pulls back - Big moves with crypto last couple of weeks - Trump tariff comments spooked speculators -- Some coins were down 15-25% after the close on that Friday GOLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD! - Taking a walloping last couple of days... -- Was really overbought -- Silver getting hammered too (8% in 2 days) Gold, Silver BOOM - Also hits new highs - then backs off a tad - Major holiday in India --- First day of Diwali in India - Buying gold (and silver) on Dhanteras is considered highly auspicious. It symbolizes: -- Wealth and prosperity, invoking blessings from Goddess Lakshmi (the deity of wealth). -- Health and longevity, honoring Lord Dhanvantari, the divine healer who is believed to have emerged with the nectar of immortality on this day. --  Financial stability, as gold is seen as a secure and pure investment. New Phrase - Like the use of TAM - Total Addressable Market or other PR phrases.... - "Right to win" is a business strategy concept that refers to a company's ability to enter a competitive market with a high probability of success, based on its unique advantages. It is not an automatic entitlement but is earned through a coherent strategy that aligns a company's "way to play" (its strategy) with its core capabilities and assets. This requires a clear, sustainable competitive advantage over rivals - Heard this just today TWICE - CEO of NASDAQ and CEO of Goldman Sachs - OBNOXIOUS! Super TACO - What was that? - Bad lunch or something? - 100% tariff on China - on a Friday afternoon - - Vance walks-back on Saturday - Just a negotiating tactic (so dumb) - Trump Walks back on Sunday Warnings - David Solomon (GS CEO) - Speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, Italy, he said a “drawdown” was likely to hit stock markets in the coming two years. - Relating to the dot.com bubble: “You’re going to see a similar phenomenon here,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a drawdown with respect to equity markets ... I think that there will be a lot of capital that’s deployed that will turn out to not deliver returns, and when that happens, people won’t feel good.” More Warnings - Jamie Dimon talks about cockroaches related to the recent bankruptcies (where there is one - there are more...) - First Brands Group, an auto parts supplier, filed for bankruptcy with over $11.6 billion in liabilities. The company’s use of invoice factoring—allegedly pledging the same receivables to multiple lenders—has triggered a federal investigation and raised alarms about off-balance-sheet financing. - Tricolor Holdings, a subprime auto lender, is accused of fraudulently pledging risky loan portfolios to multiple banks. The fallout has led to significant write-downs at institutions like JPMorgan and Fifth Third Bancorp. -- The regional banks under pressure as this is developing. Seems as though there is some concern that poor underwriting and sloppy loan issuance (and oversight) is something again. ------- This is much more difficult to paper over or to rescue like the Bond valuation crisis a couple of years ago. ZERO Dated Options - Daily turnarounds, especially on Fridays - New studies showing that the zero date options push toward the end of the day is a big player - On a index with 35-40% of top 10 holdings in makeup - easier to push those names and then collect on the options.. - Friday 10/17 is a good example of hos that occurs.. --- Decliners outpaced advancers all day - Small cap down - mega cap up ----- As day progressed, squeezing continued - (partially due to Trumps comments that everything is going well with China - aka 180 degrees from the Friday before) Listener Question: - What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord? - The phrase “Mar-a-Lago Accord” was coined by US money market wizard and previous Credit Suisse Strategist Zoltan Poszar back in June 2024 on an idea that the US could force countries to accept a weaker dollar and lower interest rates on their US Treasury investments in order to still be protected by the US security ... GM Earnings - GM stock rose more than 15% in trading Tuesday. The stock, which closed Monday at $58 per share, had its best day since 2020 and its second best day on the market since its 2009 emergence from bankruptcy. - Here’s how the company performed in the third quarter, compared with average estimates compiled by LSEG: -- Earnings per share: $2.80 adjusted vs. $2.31 expected -- Revenue: $48.59 billion vs. $45.27 billion expected -- Adjusted EBIT: $3.38 billion vs. $2.72 billion expected - GM also reduced the expected impact of tariffs this year to between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion, down from $4 billion to $5 billion. The automaker expects to offset about 35% of that impact. Meanwhile - Ferrari - Ferrari posted their worst trading day ever on last Thursday after the luxury carmaker updated its full-year and 2030 guidance and scaled back its electrification ambitions. - Analysts were disappointed by the new guidance, saying it fell short of expectations. - The Italy-based sports car manufacturer said at its Capital Markets Day, or CMD, event that it expected net revenue of at least 7.1 billion euros ($8.2 billion) this year, up from a previous forecast of more than 7 billion euros. - Net revenue is expected to be around 9 billion euros in 2030, and the company is targeting earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, of at least 3.6 billion euros by 2030. Quantum Stocks - JP Morgan announced that it will invest $10B in 27 specific industries, including Quantum computing - that sent them flying again - RGTI, IONQ, QBTS - to the moon! Apple News - Apple and Formula 1 today announced a five-year partnership that will bring all F1 races exclusively to Apple TV in the United States beginning next year. - The partnership builds on Apple’s deepening relationship with Formula 1 following the global success of Apple Original Films’ adrenaline-fueled blockbuster F1 The Movie, the highest-grossing sports movie of all time. - United by a commitment to innovation and fan experience, the partnership sets the stage for Formula 1’s continued growth in the U.S. More Apple News - iPhone 17 series outperformed its predecessor in early sales in China and the United States, research firm Counterpoint said on Monday. - The newer models outsold the iPhone 16 series by 14% during their first 10 days of availability in the two countries, Counterpoint said in a report. - Sales of the base model iPhone 17 nearly doubled in China compared to the iPhone 16 during the same period, it added, with sales of the model rising 31% across the two markets. - Stock hits ATH on Monday and helps DJIA move up BIG Pharma Follw Up - Several pharmaceutical companies have said they will sell drugs direct to patients in the U.S. and offered discounts following President Donald Trump's calls to bring down drug prices and cut out "middlemen" like pharmacies, insurers and pharmacy benefit managers. - This is another blow to pharmacies Robbery! - Thieves in balaclavas broke into Paris' Louvre museum on Sunday, using a crane to smash an upstairs window, then stealing priceless objects from an area that houses the French crown jewels before escaping on motorbikes, officials said. The robbery raises awkward questions about security at the museum, where officials had already sounded the alarm about lack of investment at a world-famous site - They said it was likely the robbery was either commissioned by a collector, in which case there was a chance of recovering the pieces in a good state, or undertaken by thieves interested only in the valuable jewels and precious metals. Blame Game - Companies across the U.S. and Europe have been cutting staff, citing the impact of artificial intelligence. There may be more to the layoffs than meets the eye as firms are "scapegoating" the technology to take the fall for challenging business moves such as layoffs, according to one professor. Some companies that flourished during the pandemic "significantly overhired" and the recent layoffs might just be a "market clearance," the professor said. Is this the new normal? - The Dutch government has invoked control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, under its Goods Availability Act. - Following the announcement by The Hague, Wingtech’s Shanghai-listed shares plunged 10% to hit its max daily limit. - The Dutch government has taken control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, in an extraordinary move to ensure a sufficient supply of its chips remains available in Europe amid rising global trade tensions. - Nexperia, a subsidiary of China’s Wingtech Technology, specializes in the high-volume production of chips used in automotive, consumer electronics and other industries, making it vital for maintaining Europe’s technological supply chains. Boooooze - Exports of U.S. spirits fell 9% in the second quarter, according to

HYSTERICAL! Some of the best host stories from over the years. Recipes and food talk…. How about that Egg book? Shotguns and Booze anyone ? Clay Pigeons… PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Closest to The Pin for Lithium Americas (LAC)  Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

ROTFL – Some of the best host stories from over the years. Shoes off at airports anyone? Vinegar book? How about economics based on train count? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Closest to The Pin for Lithium Americas (LAC)  Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Crypto pulling back October – one of the toughest months Day traders – some good news Intel’s new growth model PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Crypto pulling back - REMINDER - NEW CTP  for Lithium Americas (LAC) stock! - October - one of the toughest months - Day traders - some good news Markets - New Tariffs announced - Drugs, trucks, kitchen cabinets - Intel's new growth model - Quantum stocks rallying - Powell setting the stage RYDER CUP - What a finish! Friday Jobs Report Labor Dept - may - or may not release jobs report Friday - Fearing that a government shutdown will be problematic - Convenient US to take stake in Lithium Americas - Up 29% - Where are we coming up with all of this $ Red October? -9 of the 20 largest single-day drops in the Dow Jones occurred in October. - 1907 Bank Panic - 1929 Crash (Black Tuesday) - 1987 Crash (Black Monday, -22.6% in one day) - 2008 Financial Crisis (S&P 500 fell ~17% in October alone) - Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of ~0.91% in October -Over the past 20 years, October has been relatively favorable, with average gains between 0.8% and 1.5% for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq. -October is 35% more volatile than the average month. Saudi Arabia for the Win! - Electronic Arts rallied on Friday following a report by the Wall Street Journal that the video game company is nearing a roughly $50 billion deal to go private. - The deal would likely be the largest leverage buyout of all time, according to the Journal. - Investors including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Silver Lake could announce the deal as soon as next week, the report said - Also in n the TikTok Deal - what is up with that? - Oh - Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners is another participating investor, according to a source familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private. On the Other hand - Shares of CarMax fell to an all-time low on Thursday, as investors disposed of positions after disappointing second-quarter earnings results. - This followed surprisingly disappointing financial and operating results, with retail used unit sales declining 5.4 percent, and comparable same-store sales decreasing 6.3 percent. - Net income declined by 28.16 percent to $95.4 million from $132.8 million in the same period last year, while net sales and operating revenues dropped by 6 percent to $6.59 billion from $7.013 billion year-on-year. - Carvana next or reason why KMX doing poorly? Ponzi Accusations - The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is accusing the men who bought bankrupt chains RadioShack, Modell’s Sporting Goods, and Pier 1 Imports of running a Ponzi scheme that duped investors out of tens of millions of dollars. - A complaint filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida on Tuesday, alleges the co-founders of Miami-based Retail Ecommerce Ventures, Alex Mehr and Tai Lopez, together with the company's Chief Operating Officer Maya Burkenroad, raised approximately $112 million combined from hundreds of U.S. investors by selling investments in eight companies they created and controlled under Retail Ecommerce Ventures. - Between April 2020 through Nov. 2022, they raised money by selling two types of investments. They sold unsecured notes that promised returns of up to 25% a year, and ownership shares that offered monthly payouts as high as 2%, according to the complaint.| - To pay interest, dividends and maturing note payments, Mehr and Lopez resorted to using a combination of loans from outside lenders, merchant cash advances, money raised from new and existing investors, and transfers from other portfolio companies to cover obligations, the SEC said. Pfizer Playing Ball - President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Pfizer to voluntarily sell its medications at lower prices in the U.S., as his administration pushes to link the nation’s drug prices to cheaper prices paid abroad. - Pfizer has agreed to take measures to lower U.S. drug prices, including selling its existing drugs to Medicaid patients at the lowest price offered in other developed nations on a website the administration is calling TrumpRx.gov. - As part of the deal, Pfizer has also agreed to a three-year grace period during which the company’s products won’t face pharmaceutical-specific tariffs – as long as the drugmaker further invests in U.S. manufacturing. TikTok - ByteDance to retain ownership of TikTok's U.S. business operations, sources say - Joint venture to handle U.S. user data and algorithm, sources say - ByteDance to control revenue-generating operations like e-commerce and advertising, sources say - Sources said the new U.S. TikTok would be divided into two companies. The joint venture that was announced by Trump will serve as the backend operations to the U.S. company and handle U.S. user data and algorithm. ByteDance is expected to be the single largest minority shareholder in the joint venture, sources said.| - The new U.S. company will be valued at around $14 billion, Vice President JD Vance said. (Which everyone is asking how that number was arrived at and why so low) Holy Economics - GDP now expected to be between 3.8% and 3.9% in coming quarter (annualized) - Home sales soar 20% to 3-year high -- Sales of newly built homes rose a much larger-than-expected 20.5% in August compared with July, according to the U.S. Census. - Sales were 15.4% higher than August 2024. ---That’s despite mortgage rates that are higher than they are today. ---The median price of a new home sold in August was $413,500, in increase of 1.9% year over year. - Initial claims number last week came in much lower than anticipated at 218k Powell Hinting - Stocks overvalued? -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell furthered valuation concerns , noting “equity prices are fairly highly valued.” - Powell also signaled that the rate-cutting path wasn’t clear and that it was a “challenging situation.” - Stocks sold off a bit during the week - but came buyers stepped in again - He also said last week: weakness in the labor market is outweighing concerns about stubborn inflation, leading to a decision he backed to lower the central bank’s key interest rate last week. (setting up potential cuts and ignoring inflation pressures) Government Shutdown.. - Didn't they have open ended budget and debt ceiling? - Does it really matter anymore? - Bill being pushed to end shutdowns (therefore Congress will never have to present a budget - formalized) Quantum - Last week... - IonQ on Tuesday said it achieved a “significant quantum internet milestone,” leading shares 3% higher in afternoon trading and lifting quantum stocks in sympathy during the session. - Shares of Rigetti Computing gained 10%, D-Wave Quantum added 6% and Quantum Computing rose 4%. YTD: RGTI up 100%, IONQ up 65%, QUBT up 25%, QBTS up 218% Intel - Now Intel is asking Apple to make an investment... - So the new growth model for Intel is begging? Going Private - Electronic Arts said it will be acquired by the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, Silver Lake and Affinity Partners in an all-cash deal worth $55 billion. - Shareholders of the maker of Battlefield, The Sims and the Madden NFL will receive $210 per share. - Jared Kushner, who is President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, is CEO of Affinity. Interesting Development - New tariffs - rate cut cover - moving ahead with more threats - Late last week: Trump cites national security for new round of tariffs - 100% duty on branded drugs waived if ground broken on US factory - Despite trade deal, Britain's drugs face full 100% US tariffs - His new duties included a 50% tariff on imported kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, as well as a 30% levy on upholstered furniture, raising costs for a core consumer sector. - Trump said the 100% tariff on branded drugs would only apply to producers that had not already broken ground on U.S. manufacturing plants. - Top import of drugs ,Ireland, Switzerland, Germany, Singapore, India, Belgium - About 60% of the $25.5 billion in U.S. furniture imports in 2024 came from Vietnam and China, according to Furniture Today, a trade publication. (Wayfair?) - Trump said the new heavy-duty truck tariffs would benefit companies such as Paccar-owned (PCAR.O), opens new tab Peterbilt and Kenworth and Freightliner. Pattern Day Trader - This was a dumb rule - Regulators are moving to dismantle one of the most controversial barriers for active retail traders — the $25,000 minimum equity rule for pattern day trading. - The $25,000 minimum equity rule mandates that traders must maintain a minimum account balance of $25,000 in a margin account to execute four or more day trades within a five-business-day period. The rule was put in place in 2001. - FINRA is replacing this mandate with an intraday margin rule that applies the existing maintenance margin rules to intraday exposure. In other words, one’s intraday buying power will be based on the margin requirements for the positions they take on during the day, not a fixed equity minimum. - Good for Robinhood, Schwab and other brokers Docusign - DocuSign shares lower by 11% after OpenAI introduced DocuGPT? last night, an agent that converts contracts into structured, searchable data - BUT, this seems to be more f a searchable AI to help with Document management - not Document signing. Firefly (FLY) - Firefly Aerospace crashes to post-IPO lows after disclosing that the booster stage of its Alpha rocket was destroyed during a testing mishap - Seen as a a significant setback because the booster is a critical component for achieving successful launches, and the failure raises questions about the reliability and readiness of Firefly's (FLY) launch te

Rate cut – rates up? Diet Stocks – losing weight Good news/bad news – all good for markets Bessent for Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - BRAND New server - all provisioned - Much faster DH Site - Need a new CTP stock! - New Clear Stocks! - To the Sky - Money Tree Market - Tik Tok news Markets - Rate cut - rates up - Diet Stocks - losing weight - Good news/bad news - all good for markets - StubHub IPO Update SELL Rosh Hashanah - Buy Yom Kippur? Vanguard Issues? Got a call this morning..Gent in NY... NEW CLEAR - On Fire! - Have you seen the returns on some of these stocks? - YTD - - URA (Uranium ETF) Up 75% -- SMR (NuScale) Up 164% - - OKLO (OKL) up 518% - - CCJ (Cameco) up 65% TikTok Nonsense - President Donald Trump said in an interview that aired Sunday that conservative media baron Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan are likely to be involved in the proposal to save TikTok in the United States. -Trump also said that Oracle executive chairman Larry Ellison and Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell are also likely to be involved in the TikTok deal. More TikTok - White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says TikTok's algorithm will be secured, retrained, and operated in the U.S. outside of Bytedance's control; Oracle (ORCL) will serve as Tiktok's security provider; President Trump will sign TikTok deal later this week - What does that mean and will it be the same TikTok. - Who is doing the retraining??????? SO MANY QUESTIONS MEME ALERT! - Eric Jackson, a hedge fund manager who partly contributed to the trading explosion in Opendoor, unveiled his new pick Monday — Better Home & Finance Holding Co. - Jackson said his firm holds a position in Better Home but didn’t disclose its size. - Shares of Better Home soared 46.6% on Monday after Jackson touted the stock on X. At one point during the session, the stock more than doubled in price. - The New York-based mortgage lender jumped more than 36% last week. Intel - INTC getting even more money. - Now, NVDA pouring in $5B - Nvidia and Intel announced a partnership to jointly develop multiple generations of custom data center and PC products. Intel will manufacture new x86 CPUs customized for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure, and also build system-on-chips (SoCs) for PCs that integrate Nvidia’s RTX GPU chiplets. - Both the US Government and NVDA got BELOW market pricing on their shares. NVDA $$ - Nvidia is investing in OpenAI. On September 22, 2025, Nvidia announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI, which includes an investment of up to $100 billion - The agreement will help deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems, which will include millions of its GPUs. The first phase is scheduled to launch in the second half of 2026, using Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. Autism Link - Shares of Kenvue (KVUE) are trading lower largely due to reports from the White House and HHS suggesting a forthcoming warning linking prenatal use of acetaminophen (Tylenol's active ingredient) to autism risk. - Investors are concerned that such a warning could lead to regulatory action, changes in labeling requirements, litigation risk, or reduced demand for one of KVUE's key products. It's estimated that Tylenol accounts for approximately 7-9% of KVUE's total revenue. - The company has strongly denied any scientific basis for the link, but the uncertainty itself is hurting sentiment. - Finally, this also comes on top of recent weak financial performance: KVUE posted a Q2 revenue decline of 4% and cut its full-year guidance on August 7. - - Lawsuits to follow... Pfizer - Pfizer (PFE) announced it will acquire clinical-stage biotech Metsera (MTSR) in a cash-and-contingent value rights deal worth up to $70 per share, as it seeks a foothold in the fast-growing obesity drug market. The deal includes $47.50 per share in cash -- a 43% premium to MTSR's closing price last Friday -- plus up to $22.50 in milestone payments tied to the development and commercial success of MTSR's lead candidate, MET-097i. -PFE shares are climbing higher Mondayon the news, with investors hopeful the acquisition could provide the next long-term growth catalyst, especially as COVID-19 product sales have sharply declined in recent quarters. Mortgage Rates - Ten- and 30-year Treasury yields rose this week despite the Federal Reserve cutting its short-term interest rate. - The 10-year yield is little changed since early 2024, despite the Fed cutting rates multiple times since then. - The 10-year Treasury yield jumped as high as 4.145% after briefly falling below 4% this week. The 30-year Treasury yield — closely followed for its connection to home mortgages — traded around 4.76%, up from a low of 4.604% earlier in the week. -- Sell the news? Big - BOJ keeps short-term policy rate steady at 0.5% - Two board members proposed unsuccessfully to hike to 0.75% - BOJ decides to start selling ETFs, REITs in market - The BOJ said it would start selling once necessary operational preparations are completed, and could review the pace of selling in future policy meetings. - The decision marks another step toward dismantling remnants of the BOJ's radical stimulus aimed at reviving a moribund economy, which left it with 37-trillion-yen worth of ETFs on its balance sheet accumulated during 13 years of purchases. - Yen rallies, stocks turn negative after decision Close the OpenDoor -  Keith Rabois, Opendoor’s new chairman, said the company he co-founded needs to slash its workforce as much as 85% to fix its cost structure. - Rabois returned to Opendoor this week, when the company named former Shopify executive Kaz Nejatian as its new CEO. - “There’s 1,400 employees at Opendoor. I don’t know what most of them do. We don’t need more than 200 of them,” Rabois told CNBC. - meme stock that moves on every tweet/Reddit post WHO Backs Diet Shots - The World Health Organization will recommend using weight-loss drugs to treat obesity in adults, according to draft guidance from the agency that urged countries to take the condition seriously as a chronic disease. -The WHO’s expert committee concluded that the popular GLP-1 drugs, first developed by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, are part of the solution for the long-term treatment of obesity for patients with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or above, alongside counseling on lifestyle and behaviour changes. AND - FDA issues NVO a warning letter; says Oprah Special misled consumers on Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, Ozempic, Victoza marketing _ The video originally appeared on ABC as a Primetime Oprah Special on March 18, 2024 and can also be accessed through ABC’s website.6 The video subsequently appeared on Hulu on March 19, 2024. FDA has determined that the video is false or misleading. Thus, the video misbrands Wegovy, Ozempic, and Victoza within the meaning of the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act) and makes its distribution violative. Crackdown - HIMS trades down 2.8% yesterday and more today after U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner, Martin Makary stated that the Super Bowl ad from Hims & Hers "breached" federal law. - Makary's primary argument is that the ad violated the "fair balance" rule required for prescription drug advertising. - Omission of Side Effects: The commissioner specifically noted that the Hims ad highlighted the benefits of its compounded weight-loss drugs without mentioning any of the potential side effects. This omission, in his view, is a clear violation of FDA regulations. Thoughts? Dual Roles - New item of oddness - Idea being floated that Treas Secty Bessent could have dual roles as Fed Chair and Treasury Secty - How does that work? H1-B - Golden passports?? - The White House announced the new fee on Friday, prompting some major U.S. tech firms to advise visa holders to either remain in the country or return there quickly. - Imposing a new $100,000 annual fee on H-1B visa applications could disrupt the global operations of Indian technology services companies that deploy skilled professionals to the United States - Some follow up over the weekend that if you were here already, this probably does not apply There it is... - Paul Atkins, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said his agency will propose a rule change following President Donald Trump’s call to switch quarterly earnings reports to a semiannual schedule. - Atkins said if the rule change is approved, it will be left to companies to decide whether they switch to semiannual or stay with quarterly. - Rule can be changed by majority vote - The issue has come under heated debate as opponents of less frequent reporting argue the lack of transparency would be a detriment to investors, especially retail investors who don’t have as ample resources as Wall Street institutions. - Supporters say a six-month reporting schedule would free up companies to focus their businesses on a longer-term basis. Suckers! - Elon Musk’s xAI is raising $10 billion from investors in a round that values the company at $200 billion, sources told CNBC’s David Faber. - The fundraising comes weeks after Musk raised $10 billion in debt and equity at what was believed to be a roughly $150 billion valuation. - Later on Friday, Musk called the report “fake news” in a post on X, and said “xAI is not raising any capital right now.” - Remembering: In March, Musk announced that xAI had merged with X, his social network, in an all-stock transaction that valued the AI company at $80 billion and the social media company at $33 billion. Musk acquired Twitter for about $44 billion in 2022 and later changed the name to X. More Rug Pulls - Shares of StubHub Holdings fell by 6.38 percent on its first day as a publicly listed company

Cash on the sidelines…. (that thesis is coming back) ATH – Fed cut, AI earnings, buybacks… (Sentiment) Most hated stocks – more hate PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - AI - the promise and the theft - Need a new CTP stock! - Most hated stocks - more hate - Football Season !!!!!!!!! Markets - ATH - Fed cut, AI earnings, buybacks... (Sentiment) - NVDA under China's microscope - Cash on the sidelines.... (that reason coming back) - StubHub IPO coming (thieves, but make $ for company) Once again - House to put forth stopgap bill that would fund government through November 21; vote expected Friday CPI and Jobs - The consumer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest gain since January, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.9%. ---For the vital core reading that excludes food and energy, the August gain was 0.3%, putting the 12-month figure at 3.1%, both as forecast. Fed officials consider core to be a better gauge of long-run trends. The central bank’s inflation target is 2%. - The Labor Department reported a surprise increase in weekly unemployment compensation filings to a seasonally adjusted 263,000, the highest since October 2021. - The reports provide the final pieces of a complicated data puzzle that central bankers will review at their two-day policy meeting that concludes Sept. 17. Retail Sales - Can't count out the US Consumer - THEY CONSUME - Retail sales increase 0.6% in August, beating expectations - Core retail sales rise 0.7%; July gain unrevised at 0.5% - Higher prices account for some of the rise in sales, but consumers also showing resilience - Import prices increase 0.3% amid strong gains in capital, consumer goods Fed Day  - Odds are 100% for 0.25 cut and 3.9% for a 0.50% cut - Lots of talk about 3 cuts for 2025 (Sept, Oct, December) - Gold hitting new highs, silver up there (Schiff on TDI Podcast this week) - Cook not allowed to be fired Google - Welcome to the TRILLION dollar market cap club - Even with the concern over AI eating up search - stock is ATH after the recent court ruling -- Probably also due to free input for their LLMs - The owner of Rolling Stone, Billboard and Variety sued Google on Friday, alleging the technology giant's AI summaries use its journalism without consent and reduce traffic to its websites. - The lawsuit by Penske Media in federal court in Washington, D.C., marks the first time a major U.S. publisher has taken Alphabet-owned Google to court over the AI-generated summaries that now appear on top of its search results. - News organizations have for months said the new features, including Google's "AI Overviews," siphon traffic away from their sites, eroding advertising and subscription revenue. - Penske, a family-owned media conglomerate led by Jay Penske and whose content attracts 120 million online visitors a month, said Google only includes publishers' websites in its search results if it can also use their articles in AI summaries. - Without the leverage, Google would have to pay publishers for the right to republish their work or use it to train its AI systems, the company said in the lawsuit. I NVDA - China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly law after preliminary probe - China’s market regulator on Monday said that Nvidia violated the country’s anti-monopoly law, according to a preliminary probe, adding that Beijing would continue its investigation into the U.S. chip giant. - Surely if USA allows access to the H20 chip that this will go away.... Tesla Shares - First, company is not doing well - as a company - but stock is performing - Elon announced that he invested $1B in Tesla shares (first time since 2020) - It is being interpreted by the market as a strong vote of confidence in TSLA’s long-term prospects --- OH MY Robotaxis must be near! --- Timing on 2 fronts (Oracle and Pay package) ---- Real reason: (an bets on for him Shorting Oracle after the pop) Billionaire List NEW CLEAR - The Trump administration’s top energy official said the US should look to boost its strategic uranium reserve to buffer against Russian supplies and increase confidence in the long-term prospects of nuclear power generation. - US Energy Secretary Chris Wright comments underscore the Trump administration’s plans to promote nuclear energy as the demand for power soars with the electrification of the economy. - Russia supplies about a quarter of the enriched uranium needed by America’s fleet 94 nuclear reactors, which generate about a fifth of US electricity. IPO - Gemini, the Winklevoss’ crypto exchange, pops more than 14% in Nasdaq debut - Got to$44 on the open then faded - currently trading at $33 $28 -- Funny how all of these DEFI companies want to trade on Old School exchanges Cash and Cash Alternatives - There is over $7 trillion in cash-equivalent investments that have offered an attractive return for no market risk, and while much of that money is institutional or emergency funds savings, some shift out of cash-equivalent assets can be expected as the Fed begins to cut rates. - Cash of the sidelines - money will pour into markets if rates come down as TINA returns - - - The cash on the sidelines bull thesis has been debunked many times On Sideline Tariff Fun - Swiss watchmaker Swatch has begun selling a special edition watch with the numbers three and nine reversed on its face in a play on the 39% tariffs President Donald Trump imposed on U.S. imports from Switzerland last month. - The tariffs - among the highest set by Trump worldwide - were met with shock and dismay in Switzerland, a leading producer of high-end watches and other luxury goods. - Costing 139 Swiss francs ($175), the watch named "WHAT IF...TARIFFS?" went on sale on Wednesday and is only available in Switzerland, a company spokesperson said on Friday. Most Hated -  Shares of Pfizer and Moderna fell on Friday after a report that Trump administration health officials plan to link Covid vaccines to the deaths of 25 children. - The report comes as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, moves to change immunization policy in the U.S. - The report said officials plan to include the claim in a presentation next week to a key vaccine panel that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and plays a key role in shot access. Close the OpenDoor -  Keith Rabois, Opendoor’s new chairman, said the company he co-founded needs to slash its workforce as much as 85% to fix its cost structure. - Rabois returned to Opendoor this week, when the company named former Shopify executive Kaz Nejatian as its new CEO. - “There’s 1,400 employees at Opendoor. I don’t know what most of them do. We don’t need more than 200 of them,” Rabois told CNBC. - meme stock that moves on every tweet/Reddit post Phishing - Reuters and a Harvard University researcher used top chatbots to plot a simulated phishing scam – from composing emails to tips on timing – and tested it on 108 elderly volunteers. The bots’ persuasive performance shows how AI is arming criminals for industrial-scale fraud. - “We believe every senior deserves dignity and joy in their golden years,” it read. “By clicking here, you’ll discover heartwarming stories of seniors we’ve helped and learn how you can join our mission.” - But the charity was fake, and the email’s purpose was to defraud seniors out of large sums of money. Its author: Elon Musk’s artificial-intelligence chatbot, Grok. - Grok warned a reporter that the malicious email it created “should not be used in real-world scenarios.” The bot nonetheless produced the phishing attempt as requested and dialed it up with the “click now” line. - Overall, about 11% of the seniors clicked on the emails sent. Five of the nine scam mails tested drew clicks: two generated by Meta AI, two by Grok and one by Claude. None clicked on emails generated by ChatGPT or DeepSeek. WHO Backs Diet Shots - The World Health Organization will recommend using weight-loss drugs to treat obesity in adults, according to draft guidance from the agency that urged countries to take the condition seriously as a chronic disease. -The WHO’s expert committee concluded that the popular GLP-1 drugs, first developed by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, are part of the solution for the long-term treatment of obesity for patients with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or above, alongside counseling on lifestyle and behaviour changes. AND - FDA issues NVO a warning letter; says Oprah Special misled consumers on Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, Ozempic, Victoza marketing _ The video originally appeared on ABC as a Primetime Oprah Special on March 18, 2024 and can also be accessed through ABC’s website.6 The video subsequently appeared on Hulu on March 19, 2024. FDA has determined that the video is false or misleading. Thus, the video misbrands Wegovy, Ozempic, and Victoza within the meaning of the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act) and makes its distribution violative. Crackdown - HIMS trades down 2.8% yesterday and more today after U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner, Martin Makary stated that the Super Bowl ad from Hims & Hers "breached" federal law. - Makary's primary argument is that the ad violated the "fair balance" rule required for prescription drug advertising. - Omission of Side Effects: The commissioner specifically noted that the Hims ad highlighted the benefits of its compounded weight-loss drugs without mentioning any of the potential side effects. This omission, in his view, is a clear violation of FDA regulations. Thoughts? - The Senate has confirmed Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s pick to join the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. - Miran will participate in th

Football Team Valuations Sexy is back – Retail What winning the Powerball Jackpot means A little 1,000,000 revision… PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Stagflation - as payrolls drop - People in glass houses ....Stupid Politics - We are still here - which means we did not win the Powerball Jackpot - They say it will never happen - Ban on stock ownership for Congress Markets - CRISPR Chocolates? - Tech - again the driver - Sexy is back - Retail - Take in stride - on 900k less workers - ORACLE!!!!!! Powerball Jackpot - $1.8 Billion - Two winners - Texas and Missouri - Each winning ticket holder can choose either an annuitized prize of $893.5 million or a lump sum payment of $410.3 million – both before taxes. - Additionally, two lucky tickets sold in Kansas and Texas won a $2 million prize and 18 tickets sold across 13 states won $1 million. - Back to just $20 million now... - The odds of winning were 1 in 292.2 million, according to the Multi-State Lottery Association, which oversees the game. Glass Houses - Pulte - Accuses Fed's Cook and with simple accusations Trump looking to Fire ... - Close relatives of the federal official who has accused a Federal Reserve governor of improperly claiming primary residence on two properties have declared the same status on two homes in two different states, public records show. - Mark and Julie Pulte, the father and stepmother of Bill Pulte, President Donald Trump’s appointee as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, since 2020 have claimed so-called “homestead exemptions” for residences in wealthy neighborhoods in both Michigan and Florida, according to the records. The exemption is meant to give a discount to homeowners on taxes for properties they use as their primary residence. - Local tax officials in both states told Reuters that claiming more than one home as a primary residence isn’t generally allowed in their jurisdictions and could be punishable by fines or back taxes. - After Reuters contacted tax officials in Bloomfield Township, Michigan, to inquire about the dual claims, Darrin Kraatz, director of assessing, on Thursday said the township “as of today” would revoke the exemption on the Pultes’ residence there. Beat Your Ass - Seems at a recent dinner- Pulte got under Scott Bessent's skin and bessent was pissed - F You - I am going to beat your ass - punch you in the F'n mouth for bad talking me to president Trump - Class act these children Chocolate Editing - Candy maker Mars said Wednesday it has partnered with biotech company Pairwise to speed up the development of more resilient cocoa using CRISPR-based gene editing technology. - CRISPR technology is a gene-editing tool that makes changes to DNA and can be used in farming. - The goal is to create cacao plants that can better withstand disease, heat and other climate-related stresses that can put global chocolate supply at risk. ---- Public Service: The main difference between cocoa and cacao: cacao is minimally processed and remains largely raw and nutrient-dense, while cocoa is made from roasted cacao beans that have been processed at high temperatures. This heat and processing affect cacao's nutrient profile and flavor, making cacao powder more bitter and richer in nutrients, and cocoa powder milder and more suitable for baking. GOOGLE for the win - Google shares popped 8% on Wednesday last week as investors celebrated what they viewed as minimal consequences from a historic defeat last year in the landmark antitrust case. - Last year, Google was found to hold an illegal monopoly in its core market of internet search. - U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta ruled against the most severe consequences that were proposed by the Department of Justice, including the forced sale of Google’s Chrome browser, which provides data that helps its advertising business deliver targeted ads. - “Google will not be required to divest Chrome; nor will the court include a contingent divestiture of the Android operating system in the final judgment,” the decision stated. “Plaintiffs overreached in seeking forced divestiture of these key assets, which Google did not use to effect any illegal restraints.” - Knock on... Google pays Apple billions of dollars per year to be the default search engine on iPhones. --- It’s lucrative for Apple and a valuable way for Google to get more search volume and users. ----- Apple stock rose 4% on Wednesday in response... Sexy Back - American Eagle said its campaign with actress Sydney Sweeney has so far led to positive gains in new customers and sales. - The clothing retailer issued fiscal second-quarter earnings that beat expectations on the top and bottom lines. - It re-issued its full year guidance and is now expecting lower operating income because of tariffs. - American Eagle stock soared more than 20% in after-hours trading Wednesday. - “The fall season is off to a positive start. Fueled by stronger product offerings and the success of recent marketing campaigns with Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce, we have seen an uptick in customer awareness, engagement and comparable sales,” - Sweeney or Swift? - Earnings per share: 45 cents vs. 21 cents expected - Revenue: $1.28 billion vs. $1.24 billion expected - - - Calling BS: The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Aug. 2 was $77.6 million, or 45 cents per share, compared with $77.3 million, or 39 cents per share, a year earlier. Congress - A ban on members of Congress and their families trading or owning stocks got new momentum last week, after a bipartisan group of House members announced they had come to an agreement on a new bill. - The Restore Trust in Congress Act combines several different proposals into one vehicle that supporters say will focus the debate and lead to passage. Apple Event - Apple today announced AirPods Pro 3, taking the most popular headphones in the world to an entirely new level. AirPods Pro 3 deliver unbelievable sound quality and the world’s best in-ear Active Noise Cancellation (ANC) — removing up to 2x more noise than the previous-generation AirPods Pro, and 4x more than the original AirPods Pro. - For the first time, users can utilize AirPods Pro 3 to measure heart rate and track over 50 workout types with the new experience in the Fitness app on iPhone. - Live Translation also comes to AirPods, making face-to-face conversations easier by helping users connect even if they don’t speak the same language. - Apple® today introduced Apple Watch Ultra® 3 — the most advanced Apple Watch® — delivering expanded health, fitness, safety, and connectivity features, and seamlessly shifting between a powerful sports watch, an elegant smartwatch, and a comprehensive health companion. --- 42 hours battery, satellite, 5G - New iPhone 17 - GAME CHNGER slimmer Iphone Air (still noting about the AI and SIRI update) - Glass big point they discussed... Ceramic shield - Seems like just put new number on phone with some upgrades - video presentation is the same as has been for years - On one hand - stale - on the other, if it ain't broke... Oracle - "We signed four multi-billion-dollar contracts with three different customers in Q1...This resulted in RPO contract backlog increasing 359% to $455 billion. It was an astonishing quarter—and demand for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure continues to build. Over the next few months, we expect to sign-up several additional multi-billion-dollar customers and RPO is likely to exceed half-a-trillion dollars. The scale of our recent RPO growth enables us to make a large upward revision to the Cloud Infrastructure portion of Oracle's overall financial plan which we will be presenting in detail next month at the Financial Analyst Meeting. As a bit of a preview, we expect Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue to grow 77% to $18 billion this fiscal year—and then increase to $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and $144 billion over the subsequent four years. Most of the revenue in this 5-year forecast is already booked in our reported RPO." "MultiCloud database revenue from Amazon, Google and Microsoft grew at the incredible rate of 1,529% in Q1," said Oracle Chairman and CTO, Larry Ellison. - Stock up 22% A/H !!Rounding Error!! - The BLS preliminary benchmark revision for 12-month period ending March 2025 shows 911,000 fewer jobs than previously published - Large benchmark revision (-911,000) for nonfarm employment will reinforce market's belief that Fed will cut rates by at least 75 basis points before the end of the year, while perhaps also driving increased expectations of a 50-basis point cut at the September FOMC meeting - Historical Average: From 2002 to 2023, the average benchmark revision was around 255,000 jobs, with most years seeing revisions well below that. Largest Prior Revision: The previous record was in 2009, when the BLS revised employment down by 902,000 jobs, which was considered extraordinary at the time due to the financial crisis. Current Revision: The 2025 revision of -911,000 is now the largest in over two decades, surpassing even the 2009 figure BLS Monthly Report - Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 for the month, lower than the 75,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. - The report showed a marked slowdown from the July increase of 79,000, which was revised up by 6,000. Revisions also showed a net loss of 13,000 in June. - Health care again led by sectors, adding 31,000 jobs, while social assistance contributed 16,000. Wholesale trade and manufacturing both saw declines of 12,000 on the month. AI - The Promise - OpenAI has sharply raised its projected cash burn through 2029 to $115 billion as it ramps up spending to power the artificial intelligence

Blame it on AI – new excuse: Flirty Chatbots NVDIA earnings the high point for a while? Announcing the WINNER of the CTP PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers Warm-Up - Tariffs deemed illegal? - So much for rates coming down - Long bond up again - Announcing the WINNER of the CTP - Blame it on AI - new excuse.... Flirty Chatbots Markets - NVDIA earnings the high point for a while? - Good month - August is green - Sept starting out wobbly - AI News  - Valuations - TO THE MOON NVDA Earnings - From last Wednesday - STRONG: Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue on Wednesday, and said sales growth this quarter will remain above 50% - Earnings per share: $1.05 adjusted vs. $1.01 estimated - Revenue: $46.74 billion vs. $46.06 billion estimated - Overall company revenue rose 56% in the quarter from $30.04 billion a year ago, Nvidia said. Year-over-year revenue growth has now exceeded 50% for nine straight quarters, dating back to mid-2023 -Stock opened Thursday at $180 - now trades near $168 --- Some concern over data-center revenue declining 1% from previous quarter due to $4B less in sales of H20 chips NEW CLEAR - The Duane Arnold nuclear plant northwest of Cedar Rapids, Iowa is pressing ahead with plans to restart operations by the end of the decade after shutting down for economic reasons in 2020 - NextEra Energy (NEE) - Duane Arnold would follow similar restarts planned for the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan and Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, which plan to resume operations later this year and in 2027 - Big Change on the economics is just 5 years! USA Travel - Who needs those pesky visitors anyway - Overseas travel to the U.S. fell 3.1% year-on-year in July to 19.2 million visitors, according to U.S. government data. It was the fifth month of decline this year, defying expectations that 2025 would see annual inbound visitors finally surpass the pre-pandemic level of 79.4 million. - New VISA INTEGRITY fees on incoming travelers from many countries - The extra charge raises the total visa cost to $442 for non-via waiver countries like Mexico, Argentina, India, Brazil and China - In China, arrivals have remained muted since the pandemic, with July numbers still 53% below 2019 levels. The visa fee also threatens travel from India, where visits are down 2.4% so far this year, driven by a near 18% drop in students. Tariffs Illegal? - A divided U.S. appeals court ruled on Friday that most of Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal, undercutting the Republican president's use of the levies as a key inter - Trump lamented the decision by what he called a "highly partisan" court, posting on Truth Social: "If these Tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the Country." national economic policy tool. - So, now it goes to the Supreme Court (non - partisan?) - Talk of the Bond Vigilantes making a move if the tariffs struck down because not much to pay the huge deficit and debt encumbered with new OBBBA   Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Speaking of Rates - Since the Powell hint of cuts - rates on the rise - -Longer-Term rates - Mortgage rates are the highest in months and the 10-Yr is at approx 4.30% -- Please note, the Fed controls short-term rates.... Some influence on mortgages due to Quantitative easing, but even if rates are dropped does not mean that longer-dated paper will see a drop in the rates DEE MINIMUM US - The de minimis exemption, which allowed shipments valued under $800 to enter the country duty-free, came to an end globally last Friday. - Small business owners on Etsy, eBay and Shopify, for example, relied on the provision to support their marketplace businesses. - For nearly a decade, shipments valued under $800 were allowed to enter the country virtually duty-free and with less oversight. - The end of de minimis could cost U.S. consumers at least $10.9 billion, or $136 per family, according to a 2025 paper - The end of de minimis could cost U.S. consumers at least $10.9 billion, or $136 per family, according to a 2025 paper - More interesting is that some research shows that a good amount of drugs make their way into the US in de minimus packages. --- In a fact sheet published on July 30, the White House said 90% of all cargo seizures in fiscal 2024, including 98% of narcotics seizures and 97% of intellectual property rights seizures, originated as de minimis shipments. Make US Politics look calm - Thailand's Constitutional Court dismissed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Friday for an ethics violation, in another crushing blow to the Shinawatra political dynasty - She became the fifth premier in 17 years to be removed by the Constitutional Court, underlining its central role in an intractable power struggle between the governments of the Shinawatra clan and a nexus of powerful conservatives and royalist generals with far-reaching influence. This is excellent news - US is moving forward with the “America by Design” initiative - The Order establishes the National Design Studio and the role of Chief Design Officer to facilitate design improvements in both digital and physical Federal spaces. - Updating Federal websites to make more intuitive and user friendly - Currently Only 6% of Federal websites are rated “good” for mobile performance, and 45% of Federal websites are not mobile friendly. Following Up - Spirit Airline - Not looking good - Frontier Air took on and aimed to bury Spirit once and for all - 2nd Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 6 months - Presidents letter stated: Blah Blah... We are going though the Chapter 11 process, just like many of companies in the airlines industry have.... Some AI News - Alibaba is developing a new AI chip - The chip is specifically for inferencing rather than training but Alibaba will still use semiconductors from other vendors like Nvidia. - Alibaba said it would invest at least 380 billion Chinese yuan ($53.1 billion) in AI over the next three years. More IA - Artificial-intelligence company Anthropic said on Tuesday it is now valued at $183 billion post-money, over twice as much as its earlier valuation, as investor enthusiasm towards AI startups stays strong despite some doubts over tech industry spending. - The new valuation is a jump from the $61.5 billion post-money valuation in March this year, where it raised $3.5 billion. - Estimates that the company will be pulling in $5B revenue from what they have done recently TESLA - News that Euopean sales are sliding - down 40% in the past year - Tesla has reportedly sold few cars in India since launching in mid-July 2025, with just over 600 orders placed Kraft Heinz - Kraft Heinz will split into two companies, one focused on groceries and the other on sauces and spreads, it said on Tuesday, dismantling a packaged goods giant that never achieved the growth expected when it was formed a decade ago. - The spinoff, which is expected to close in the second half of 2026, is the latest in a series of rearrangements among major global consumer brands that once embraced the conglomerate model, but are now rethinking their business structure amid sluggish sales, depressed valuations, and tariffs. - Warren Buffet said he was disappointed in the move - Shares dropped 7% on the news (so much for unlocking value) Flirty Chatbots - Meta has appropriated the names and likenesses of celebrities – including Taylor Swift, Scarlett Johansson, Anne Hathaway and Selena Gomez – to create dozens of flirty social-media chatbots without their permission - Meta removed some flirty celebrity bots after being questioned by Reuters - Meta says its own AI created inappropriate images, violating its policies - Legal expert says Meta's use of likenesses may have violated celebrities' publicity rights       Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE WINNER Closest to The Pin for Proctor & Gamble (PG) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Jackson HOLY cow what a move…. SOE’s get used to it – We are now China. Airline consolidation or murder? Bond yields – Long bond yields up. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Excitement over a change in tone from Powell (Powell throws the towel?) - Crypto surges - then comes back down - SOE - Get used to that - Bond yields - Long bond up Markets - Hitting all-time highs - Airline consolidation or murder? - NVDA earnings - reports this week - Some crypto really moving Fed Firing - How do we feel about the firing of Fed's Cook? - Allegations, not confirmed - Could this be a play to actually fire Powell? --- Trump now says that this paves the way to him having a majority that soon will push rate lower (after firing Cook) Windless - Shutting down the alt-energy projects - Wind turbines ugly and no good - Shares in wind farm developer Orsted - The U.S. government last week ordered the company to halt construction of an almost completed project. - Late on Friday the U.S.? Bureau of Ocean Energy Management had issued a stop-work order for the Revolution Wind Project off of Rhode Island. According to Orsted, the project is 80% complete and 45 out of 65 wind turbines have been installed Pricing Power - News that Spotify will raise prices as it invests in new features and targets 1 billion users - said the price will rise to 11.99 euros ($14.05) from 10.99 euros in markets including South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. - Price increases combined with cost-cutting efforts in recent years helped Spotify achieve its first annual profit last year. Jackson Holy !! - Powell hinted that maybe there would be a change to his thinking - In his final address as Fed chair at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, economic symposium, Powell hinted at a September interest rate cut but stopped short of committing, striking a careful balance between mounting job-market risks and lingering inflation worries. - In particular, the market was enthused by Mr. Powell's line noting that "with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance," which the market took as an open-mindedness to easing. - The probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting now stands at 83.1%, up from 75.0% yesterday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Jackson - HOLY 2 - Markets reacted strongly in favor of a rate cut - hope - DJIA up 800 - S&P and NASDAQ rallied - Small Caps up close to 4% - USD dove - Yields - slightly lower - Crypto - ETHER rallied hard - ATH ---- Give it a day and Ether and Bitcoin came back down to earth Misunderstanding - Cut rates so houses more affordable? - Long rates moved higher - NVDA - Earnings due Wednesday After the close - Nvidia makes up about 7.5% of the S&P 500. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimates Zacks Consensus: $1.00 Kiplinger Forecast: $1.01, up 48.5% year-over-year MarketBeat Average: $0.97 (range: $0.92–$1.05) - Revenue Estimates Zacks Consensus: $46.14 billion Kiplinger Forecast: $46.0 billion, a 53.1% increase YoY MarketBeat Range: $44.1–$45.9 billion - Forward-Looking EPS FY 2026: $4.28 (Zacks), $4.12 (MarketBeat) FY 2027: $5.70 (Zacks) SOE - State Owned Enterprises - We had better get use to it - All the anger directed at China for this - as unfair practice - Now, US takes a piece of Intel (10% for $2B ?) - Wait - 10% is $10B value - is that right? Intel Math (MATH?) - The U.S. government acquired a 10% stake in Intel by converting $11.1 billion in previously issued grants and pledges into equity. - It received 433.3 million non-voting shares priced at $20.47 each, totaling an initial valuation of $8.9 billion - At the time of the deal, Intel's stock was trading at $24.80, giving the government's stake an immediate paper gain of $1.9 billion, bringing the current estimated value of the stake to approximately $11 billion Spirit Doomed? - Frontier on Tuesday announced 20 routes it plans to start this winter, many of them in major Spirit markets like its base at Fort Lauderdale International Airport in Florida. - Frontier overlaps with Spirit on 35% of its capacity, more than any other airline - Spirit lost $245million in the 2nd quarter - Frontier $70 million - This could be the last hoorah for Spirit - Maybe US Government will buy into Next Up - - Lutnick now talking about possibly USA getting a piece of Defense contractors - Lutnick: Lockheed Martin, which makes most of its revenue from federal contracts, is “basically an arm of the U.S. government,” he said. - Trump administration military leaders are “thinking about” whether the U.S. should acquire equity stakes in top defense contractors, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said. 180 Degree Turn - Cracker Barrel Kerfuffle - Cracker Barrel Old Country Store on Monday issued a statement responding to the backlash it faced last week over its rebranding and new logo. - “We could’ve done a better job sharing who we are and who we’ll always be,” the restaurant chain said. - Were people annoyed with the simple logo or why they removed the old man (old White Man Uncle Herschel) --- OLD COUNTRY STORE was also removed - Users on social media were quick to criticize the new logo, describing it as “generic,” “soulless” and “bland.” Crypto - BIG move post Powell - Ether surged 15% late Friday, rising as high as $4,885.00 and surpassing its November 2021 record of $4,866.01 - The moves came during Powell’s annual address from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in which he indicated conditions “may warrant” interest rate cuts." - Ethereum doubled over the past two months - Only about 800,000 ETH is expected to be created over the next year, while institutional demand could reach $20 billion. This 7x demand-to-supply ratio is pushing prices higher Apple and Google - Apple in early discussions to use Google’s Gemini AI models for an updated version of the iPhone maker’s Siri assistant. - HMMMM - The reported talks come as Google faces potential risk to its lucrative search deals with Apple. - This month, a U.S. judge is expected to rule on the penalties for Google’s alleged search monopoly, in which the Department of Justice recommends eliminating exclusionary agreements with third parties. META and Google - Google won a $10 billion cloud contract from Meta spanning six years, according to two people familiar with the matter. - Meta has largely been reliant on Amazon Web Services for cloud infrastructure though it also uses Microsoft Azure. - Furniture Tariffs - President Donald Trump threatened Friday to impose tariffs on furniture, adding to his levies on specific products and commodities. Stocks for some furniture and home goods companies, including Wayfair, RH and Williams-Sonoma, tumbled after the market close, following Trump’s post. - “Within the next 50 days, that Investigation will be completed, and Furniture coming from other Countries into the United States will be Tariffed at a Rate yet to be determined,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “This will bring the Furniture Business back to North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan, and States all across the Union.” - Vietnam markets do not care - Up 55% since April low, 30% since just before tariff announcement. - Beneficiary of the China hate?         Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Closest to The Pin for Proctor & Gamble (PG)   Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Bottom Fishing for bargains. Consolidation, Digestion – awaiting the next catalyst. Saudi SWF takes a hit. The Jackson Hole confab is around the corner. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Labubus - Beanie Babies ? - US Debt - wretched - Good fishing this weekend - Chip Trackers Markets - Bottom Fishing - Consolidation, Digestion - waiting for the next catalyst -  Saudi SWF takes a hit - Validations - to the MOON - Casual Dining take a hit Weekend Fishing - Marlin, Roosterfish and Yellowfin Tuna - 2 bucket list items The CONFAB - August 21 to August 23 - Theme: Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy - Powell to speak Friday at 10am - Historically: ---- 1989: Alan Greenspan became the first Fed Chair to formally participate in the program, establishing a tradition of Fed leadership using the event to signal policy direction (Volker stopped by in 1982) --- 2010: Ben Bernanke used the symposium to signal QE2 --- 2014: Mario Draghi, ECB President, hinted at aggressive stimulus to combat Europe’s sluggish growth, influencing currency markets --- 2020: Jerome Powell announced the Fed’s new “average inflation targeting” framework, allowing inflation to run above 2% temporarily to support employment growth More Jackson Hole - Many are saying this is the be the defining moment in Powell's Career - Certainly the last one attending that he will be chair - Odds are that he will look to continue the Fed independence and data dependency talk US Debt - The federal government's gross national debt topped $37 trillion for the first time in history last week, and the U.S. has room to add trillions of dollars more to the debt following the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). - OBBBA included a $5 trillion debt limit increase to avert a potential stand-off over the borrowing limit ($41 trillion limit) - US Debt to GDP = 100% - Every American owes $111,045 (Assuming spread evenly) - 25 years ago it was $19,000 er person LabooooBooo - Labubus, the quirky monster plush dolls made by Pop Mart, have exploded into a global phenomenon, doubling as collectibles and fashion accessories for adults. - In the first half of 2025, Labubu-related products generated a staggering $418 million in global sales for Pop Mart, with nearly 40% of revenue last year coming from outside mainland China. The company says sales in the first six months of this year are on track to more than triple, fueled by what’s become a full-blown international craze. - The thrill of the hunt. Labubus are only available through online purchases and in-store pickups, if you can find one in stock. Adding to the scarcity factor is the blind-box packaging – you never know which character you’ll get. - Some collectors chase elusive "secret" editions, with odds as low as 1 in 72. Investing - A better Way? - Powerball jackpot grows to estimated $643 million after no one won Monday night's drawing - Next drawing - Wednesday night - The jackpot is a new high for 2025 - he highest Powerball jackpot ever was $2.04 billion, won on November 7, 2022 by a single ticket sold in California. - The winner, Edwin Castro, opted for the lump sum payout of $997.6 million Energy Needed - Google and Kairos Power will deploy an advanced nuclear reactor to help power the tech company’s data centers on the Tennessee Valley Authority grid. - The Hermes 2 reactor developed by Kairos will dispatch 50 megawatts of electricity, enough to power about 36,000 homes. - TVA will purchase the electricity from the reactor, making it the first utility in the U.S. to sign an offtake agreement with an advanced nuclear plant. - Google, Kairos and TVA said their collaboration will move the U.S. a step closer to deploying advanced nuclear reactors by making sure consumers are not on the hook for the cost of building the plant. - In other words, public-private and private industry is footing the bill for their own utility infrastructure build out. Chip Trackers - U.S. authorities have secretly placed location tracking devices in targeted shipments of advanced chips they see as being at high risk of illegal diversion to China, according to two people with direct knowledge of the previously unreported law enforcement tactic. - The measures aim to detect AI chips being diverted to destinations which are under U.S. export restrictions, and apply only to select shipments under investigation, the people said. - None of this is really supposed to be know and if it was - to what extent? Management called for 97 cents to 99 cents in fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings per share on $14.65 billion to $14.85 billion in revenue _ Cisco reported results on Wednesday that narrowly exceeded analysts’ expectations and issued quarterly guidance that was also better than expected. - Earnings per share: 99 cents adjusted vs. 98 cents expected - Revenue: $14.67 billion vs. $14.62 billion expected - Management called for 97 cents to 99 cents in fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings per share on $14.65 billion to $14.85 billion in revenue Bottom Fishing - Lots of news...... Intel and UNH - UnitedHealth shares soared after Warren Buffett (Berkshire) revealed a stake of 5 million shares, worth about $1.6 billion, in the troubled health insurer. - The “Big Short” investor Michael Burry and Appaloosa Management’s David Tepper also disclosed sizable stakes in the company. - The health-care stock ended the day up 12%, its best daily performance since March 2020 - Vote of confidence  - Stock has some backers- more may come to the rescue as they accumulate shares (first accumulate, then disclose) More Bottom Fishing? - Let's get busy! - First the US government teases abut taking a 10% stake - not sure how... - Now Softbank initiates a $2 billion investment - SoftBank not seeking board seat or committing to buy Intel chips- this was a capital infusion - - Most analysts see this nothing more that Masayoshi Son trying to keep good relations with President Trump Saudi SWF - 8% writedown is on a decline in investments on GigaProjects (New cities, Entertainment Complex, Heritage preservation, Urban parks, Urban redevelopment) - The PIF’s assets under management climbed 19% from the end of 2023 to $913 billion, making it one of the largest and fastest-growing sovereign wealth funds on the planet. (The investment portion of the fund) - No Wonder there is so much money flowing into stocks over the past year - AND this is just one SWF Valuation Evaluation  - Open AI - OpenAI is preparing to sell around $6 billion in stock as part of a secondary sale that would value the company at roughly $500 billion, CNBC confirmed Friday. - Company is is preparing to sell around $6 billion in stock as part of a secondary sale that would value the company at roughly $500 billion, CNBC confirmed Friday. Japan Economy - Japan’s economy expanded 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025 from the previous first three months, outpacing forecasts despite tariff headwinds out of the United States. - Last quarter there was a contraction - so no recession - The GDP beat was mainly attributed to resilience in exports, which added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, compared to the 0.8% contraction in the first quarter of the year. Predicti0ns and Observations - David Rosenberg - "Guess what the biggest driver of this stock market rally has been? Leverage. For the first time ever, margin debt has topped $1 trillion and has ballooned +25% over the past year. Fully one-fifth of all the leverage supporting the stock market has been built up just in the past year alone; almost half of the outstanding margin debt has come in the past five years alone." - M2 (money supply) has also increase dramatically Fast Casual - Cava, Chipotle and other fast-casual restaurant chains are finally hit by consumer slowdown - Cava stock tumbled 16% in afternoon trading on Wednesday, making it the latest fast-casual chain to feel Wall Street’s wrath after reporting disappointing quarterly sales. - So far in 2025, Shake Shack shares have fallen 16%; Chipotle stock has slid 28%; Cava shares have tumbled 37%; and Sweetgreen stock has plunged 70% - Wingstop has managed to stay in the green this year, with gains of 20%. Extortion Anyone? - US Government now wants equity from Intel as a part of the money provided in CHIPS act - 10% for $10b grant - How is this rewritten after the fact? The idea was to create obs and manufacturing in return for these grants - Mentioned that they will extend to other CHIPS Act recipients as well         Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Closest to The Pin for Proctor & Gamble (PG)   Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

China Style Capitalism – CHINUS Capitalism Some Fed speakers talking 2 cuts now Fresh set of IPOs entering the market A NEW Closest to The Pin announcement PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - China Style Capitalism - CHINUS Capitalism - Some Fed speakers talking 2 cuts now - Fresh set of IPOs entering the market - A NEW Closest to The Pin - AND a couple of listener limericks Markets - New Highs and Crypto looks to breakout - Apple best week since 2020 - Alts coming to your 401k - Gold - no longer to be tariff'd - NVDA chips - not safe? Fed Speakers - Some talking 3 rate cuts... End of year? - CPI and PPI this week so we shall see -- Seems like kiss ass tactcs to keep job or get promoted New America Way of Business? - CHINUS - Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to give the U.S. government a share of revenues from certain chips sold in China, the Financial Times reported, in an unprecedented arrangement with the White House. - In exchange for 15% of revenues from the chip sales, the two chipmakers will receive export licenses to sell Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips in China, according to the FT. - The arrangement comes as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to reverberate through the global economy, underscoring the White House’s willingness to carve out exceptions as a bargaining tool. (Who is this bargaining with????) Perplexing - Perplexity offered to purchase Google's (GOOG) Chrome for $34.5 billion, according to WSJ - Google doesn’t break out Chrome-specific revenue, analysts estimate its indirect contribution to ad revenue is tens of billions annually. Losing Chrome would weaken Google’s ability to control defaults and gather behavioral data, which are critical for ad targeting - Analysts suggest Chrome could be worth $50 billion or more if Google were forced to sell, given its user base and strategic importance - IPOs - The U.S. IPO market has surged in 2025, with over 210 listings so far—up 84% from last year. Notable performers include: - Figma, Inc. – IPO at $33, now trading at $78.11 (+136.70%) - Ambiq Micro, Inc. – IPO at $24, now $39.47 (+64.46%) - inkhome Holdings Inc. – IPO at $4, now $7.50 (+87.50%) - Rich Sparkle Holdings Limited – IPO at $4, now $35.09 (+777.25%) - Masonglory Limited – IPO at $4, now $12.00 (+200.00%) - Firefly Aerospace Inc. – IPO at $45, now $50.17 (+11.49%) - HeartFlow, Inc. – IPO at $19, now $28.75 (+51.32%) JOBS Report FIX - BLS Commissioner nominee E.J. Antoni suggested that monthly jobs report could be paused to fix methodology, according to Fox Business interview - Many are worrying about the FIX - is it a fix or will it be fixed...? - More than 2,000 people work at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), including professional economists and survey takers who contribute to the production of the monthly jobs report - The Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has no direct role in collecting, processing, or altering the monthly jobs report data. Here's a breakdown of how the system is designed to prevent manipulation ---The commissioner does not see the jobs data until the Wednesday before its public release on Friday - But, let's discuss - how can the commissioner change the numbers? Intel - 96 hours of fun - Intel stock up as White House going to force TSM to buy into company - Intel stock down as White House recommends firing CEO - Intel Stock up after CEO meeting with Trump in White House Apple - Best week since July 2020 - Apple shares rose 13% this week, its largest weekly gain in more than five years, after CEO Tim Apple appeared with President Donald Trump in the White House on Wednesday. - $400 Billion in market cap with promise to increase spend in America of $100B (chips, manufacturing etc) - Brings the total promised to $600B since Trump's first term - There are no official known records that show how much was spent of the $500 billion - NO TEETH NVDA- Risk to China - Nvidia’s chips pose security concerns for China, a social media account affiliated with China’s state media said on Sunday, after Beijing raised concerns over backdoor access in those chips. - The H20 chips are also not technologically advanced or environmentally friendly, the account, Yuyuan Tantian, which is affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, said in an article published on WeChat. - “When a type of chip is neither environmentally friendly, nor advanced, nor safe, as consumers, we certainly have the option not to buy it,” the article concluded. 401ks - The new White House order directing regulators to expand access to alternative investments in 401(k) plans, like crypto or privately owned companies adds a new layer of risk to the retirement portfolios for ordinary investors that they may not fully understand, investment professionals say. - Private equity and other alternative asset funds have increasingly been raising capital from wealthy individuals but are traditionally designed for institutional investors and typically include layers of fees. Private equity, for instance, has long had the "2 and 20" structure: managers collect a 2% overall fee, as well as 20% of any gains. - Risk, lock ups, irregular valuations - How is this just approved by the White House? The Department of Labor's Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA) is the primary government agency that oversees 401(k) plans. They ensure compliance with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) and other relevant legislation. Softbank - Riding High - Shares of SoftBank Group ended Friday 10.39% higher at 13,865, paring gains from its record of 14,390 earlier in the session following the company’s higher-than-expected fiscal first-quarter profit. - SoftBank shares have extended gains to a fourth straight session, and closed at a record high on Thursday, before the company released its earnings. - SoftBank’s profits for the April to June quarter came in at 421.8 billion yen ($2.87 billion), substantially overshooting LSEG consensus estimates of127.6 billion yen. - AI bets fueling shares - Vision Fund - - History: - Launched Yahoo! Japan in the 1990s - Acquired Vodafone Japan in 2006 (now SoftBank Corp., Japan’s third-largest wireless carrier). - Invested early in Alibaba, turning a $20 million stake into tens of billions Trade Desk - Shares of The Trade Desk plummeted 39% on Friday, their worst day on record, after the ad-tech company announced the departure of its CFO and analysts expressed concerns about rising competition from Amazon - The Trade Desk, which went public in 2016, suffered its steepest prior drop in February, when the shares fell 33% on a revenue miss. In its second-quarter earnings report late Thursday, the company beat expectations on earnings and revenue, but the results failed to impress investors. - The Trade Desk, which specializes in providing technology to companies that want to target users across the web - Big concern was the growing role of Amazon in the advert space. Also, Meta's AI ad placement probably not helping. Pulse of the World? - Maersk CEO flags strong demand ‘pretty much everywhere’ except for the U.S. as outlook raised - Shipping giant Maersk on Thursday reported better-than-expected quarterly profit, defying trade fears even as the industry navigates a new era of tariff complexity. - Maersk also raised its full-year guidance and the outlook for global container market volume growth. --- Maersk raised its full-year 2025 financial guidance, saying underlying EBITDA this year is expected to come in between $8 billion to $9.5 billion, up from previous guidance of between $6 billion to $9 billion. - “Outside of the United States, we see a continued very strong demand and that is fueling the earnings and the upgrade that we were able to do today,” CEO Vincent Clerc. SPORTS Hookup - Walt Disney's ESPN has reached a landmark deal with the National Football League to acquire NFL Network and other media assets from the league in exchange for the NFL taking a 10% equity stake in the sports network, the parties said on Tuesday. - NFL will take a 10% equity stake in ESPN - Stake could be worth $2 billion to $3 billion, analysts and industry insiders say - Potential Conflict of interest? ESPN has a sportsbook - ESPN Bet... (Deal remains subject to regulatory approval) Lilly - New weight loss pill effective - 12% reduction in  body weight after 72 weeks late-stage trial - They bring Eli Lilly’s pill, orforglipron, one step closer to potentially becoming a new, needle-free alternative without dietary restrictions in the booming market for weight loss and diabetes drugs called GLP-1s.         Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNNOUNCING Closest to The Pin for Proctor & Gamble (PG)     Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS Keith Jacobs In finance, a trader did crack. Buxom tracks had investors aback. While she'd trade with great zest, And made some quite the best, Her returns just often won’t rack. In the Fed halls, a plan did rise, To tame inflation so outsize'. With dollar-backed might, And digital right? Now wait for a crypto surprise.   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter