ESBC NFLAnd Sports Betting Podcast Network

194-126=60.6%$58,300 profit is the value of the content This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

@therealjames_h fight night UFC He is 35 out of 37 winning weeks* The Top 10 rules for anticipating the outcome of Sporting Events And Predictive Anomalies* josuevizcay.medium.com/top-10-rules-for-betting-the intricacies of sports betting, emphasizing the importance of decision science, situational intelligence, and collaboration.He shares insights on how to analyze betting strategies, track performance, and the significance of having a clear purpose and outcome in betting.The conversation also touches on the community aspect of betting and the long-term strategies for success This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

Bucs -5-5Cards +11Eagles -11U38Jets+15o42Bears -7u38Bills EvenRavens $L-1250o51Chiefs-5u42Giants -135o45Seahawks 13o42Broncos +3/2ndu43Panthers -2o40Lions +6O5449ers-12u45Minn+6o47Tomlin$L-160u43 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

Random Royval +225 Kevin Vallejos by finish +150 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

Dunning–Kruger EffectThis is the best-known term.It refers to a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a domain overestimate their competence, often because they lack the knowledge to recognize their own mistakes.It doesn’t necessarily involve delusions, but it explains why someone might think they’re much more skilled at decision-making than they really are.Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)Sometimes called the “better-than-average effect.”People consistently rate their own decision-making, intelligence, or skills as above average, even when objective measures show otherwise.3.Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)Delusional Disorder / Grandiosity (Clinical Context)When the overestimation of ability moves beyond bias and into fixed false beliefs that resist contrary evidence, it becomes clinical.In psychiatry, this would be described as grandiose delusions, a symptom sometimes seen in bipolar disorder or schizophrenia.4.Over coming -Overconfidence Bias (Decision Science / Finance)In economics and behavioral finance, “overconfidence bias” is the specific term for people placing too much faith in their own judgments, leading to poor decisions and risky behavior.hawthorne Effective -✅ If you mean a psychological bias → Dunning–Kruger effect or overconfidence bias.✅ If you mean a clinical, delusional state → grandiose delusionThe Solution * Strategy* - Transparency* - Information flow* - Exploit market inefficiencies* - Return To the mean* -Arbitrage* -Common Sense * Collaboration* -Law of opposites This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

184-118=60.9% =$56,400 in profit bettng $1000 a gam,e This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

James insight, picks and a parlay at the end Watch this episode on the ⁠⁠ESBC NFL And SportsBetting Podcast YouTube channel⁠⁠.https://www.youtube.com/@ESBCNFLAndsportsbettingpodcastFollow us on Instagram https://www.instagram.com/josuevizcay/Follow us on TikTok at https://www.tiktok.com/@josuevizcay12?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

* The Hawthorne Effect can improve performance by 10 to 20%.* The ESPC Podcast is a business meeting with specific outcomes.* Josh has an MBA and a securities license.* Clients worth $50 million and above seek good information.* Business and financial concepts help predict outcomes.* Consistent prediction of outcomes leads to monetization. Like Elon Musk states you get to the truth, then you consistently predict outcoms then from a business standpoint can logically monetize those outcomes* The podcast ranks highly in sports and betting categories. 7th overall in the state florida and top 50 nationally per feedspot * Monetizing outcomes is a primary goal of the podcast.* but Top 10 Rules For Betting-Short Term Investing In NFL-CFB And College Basketball* medium.com/@josuevizcay/top-10…ketball-bdc7d132490* Learn From Mistakes “unexamined life is not worth living”* “You learn more from losses than you do from wins”* “An unexamined life is not worth living”This year we are The Problem Dunning–Kruger Effect* This is the best-known term.* It refers to a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a domain overestimate their competence, often because they lack the knowledge to recognize their own mistakes.* It doesn’t necessarily involve delusions, but it explains why someone might think they’re much more skilled at decision-making than they really are.* Discribe the problemIllusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)* Sometimes called the “better-than-average effect.”* People consistently rate their own decision-making, intelligence, or skills as above average, even when objective measures show otherwise.3.Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)Delusional Disorder / Grandiosity (Clinical Context)* When the overestimation of ability moves beyond bias and into fixed false beliefs that resist contrary evidence, it becomes clinical.* In psychiatry, this would be described as grandiose delusions, a symptom sometimes seen in bipolar disorder or schizophrenia.4. Describe the solution * Analyzing game dynamics can lead to better outcomes.* Takeaways* Decision Science used by fortune 500 companies * Continuous improvement is essential in sports betting.* Return To the Mean * Fundamenal analysis* Understanding team management is crucial for predictions.* Utilizing decision science enhances betting strategies.* Analyzing game dynamics can lead to better outcomes.* Long-term thinking is vital in sports betting.* Statistical analysis helps predict game outcomes.* As Robert Glazer writes “The concept of regression to the mean was first discovered by the statistician and sociologist Sir Francis Galton. As part of his research, Galton observed that tall parents tended to have children who were shorter than them, whereas short parents often had children who were taller than them.* Based on this, Galton developed the principle of regression to the mean, which states that in any series with complex phenomena that are dependent on many variables, where chance is involved, extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more moderate ones. In other words, if something extremely unexpected happens, it is likely to be followed by something that’s more aligned with statistical projections or expectations.* We have a tendency to overreact to results in the short term and use those outcomes to make long term decisions, ignoring the reality of regression to the mean. In particular, we tend to ignore the role of luck and timing when evaluating extreme early outcomes. “* The importance of collaboration in sports betting.Over coming -Overconfidence Bias (Decision Science / Finance)* Analyzing game dynamics can lead to better outcomes.* In economics and behavioral finance, “overconfidence bias” is the specific term for people placing too much faith in their own judgments, leading to poor decisions and risky behavior.* If you are being self destructive doing what you are not supposed to do purpose that depression - or life time - why important to check you thinking and system to do so no matter how successful you are * Process is* 1)Research* 2) Use math (which is pattern recognition not calculation and statistics)* 3)Rigorously apply logic* behavioral finance* Fundamental Analysis h* highest level in probability is 80%/20% bad luck* As we think in probabilities to make money off of NFL Games* Rams- uncharacteristically turned - a pick 6 is z 14 point swing * Miami - shut down offense in 2nd half and they were arrogant that pathethic offense can not move on us - and they almost lost the game - I was wrong to think that would make a dumb mistake like that * Lions –3u48* Ravens –7- 5 turnovers * Eagles -7 (Read)* Thought the Steelers would score more points - wrong on the total f* Wrong total on the lord Commanders * 2 totals I got wrong - because of soft zone late in the game- not bad luck - both that Saints and Giants suck ...as result you have to determine their ability to score against soft zone late in the game to cover big numbers * Based on the search results, the performance increase associated with the Hawthorne Effect varies across different studies and contexts. Here are some key findings on the percentage increases reported:General productivity increase: Data compiled by Levitt & List showed roughly a 10% per year increase in productivity in the groups following the start of the Illumination Studies, regardless of whether they were part of the control or the experimental group1.Hand hygiene compliance:In one study, antiseptic hand rub (AHR) compliance increased from 29% to 45% during the overt observation period, which is approximately a 55% This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

We start the Week158-93=62.9%$57,100Texans+5.5o43Bears -140U45.5Patriots –6o50Lions –10(Bet Weds)U50Packers-6o41jets +15o44Seahawks-13o40Jags $L-148O47Raiders $L205O36Boys+4o48Saints -2U40Bucs +7.5O4949ers -7U49 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

@therealjames_h fight night UFC He is 35 out of 37 winning weeks* The Top 10 rules for anticipating the outcome of Sporting Events And Predictive Anomalies* josuevizcay.medium.com/top-10-rules-for-betting-the intricacies of sports betting, emphasizing the importance of decision science, situational intelligence, and collaboration.He shares insights on how to analyze betting strategies, track performance, and the significance of having a clear purpose and outcome in betting.The conversation also touches on the community aspect of betting and the long-term strategies for success. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

* Dunning–Kruger Effect* This is the best-known term.* It refers to a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a domain overestimate their competence, often because they lack the knowledge to recognize their own mistakes.* It doesn’t necessarily involve delusions, but it explains why someone might think they’re much more skilled at decision-making than they really are.Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)* Sometimes called the “better-than-average effect.”* People consistently rate their own decision-making, intelligence, or skills as above average, even when objective measures show otherwise.3.Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)Delusional Disorder / Grandiosity (Clinical Context)* When the overestimation of ability moves beyond bias and into fixed false beliefs that resist contrary evidence, it becomes clinical.* In psychiatry, this would be described as grandiose delusions, a symptom sometimes seen in bipolar disorder or schizophrenia.4.Over coming -Overconfidence Bias (Decision Science / Finance)* In economics and behavioral finance, “overconfidence bias” is the specific term for people placing too much faith in their own judgments, leading to poor decisions and risky behavior.* hawthorne Effective - * ✅ If you mean a psychological bias → Dunning–Kruger effect or overconfidence bias.* ✅ If you mean a clinical, delusional state → grandiose delusions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

We start the week145-84=63.3% ($53,750) at $1000 per gameIn this episode, Josh Abner Vizcay introduces a unique podcast format focused on analyzing betting mistakes and emphasizes the importance of tracking performance for business improvement, referencing insights from Elon Musk. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

I go over every game side and total the value of the content is $60,000nobody’s ever gotten rich using technical analysis people have gotten rich using fundamental analysis.These are two main ways to evaluate stocks, to evaluate investment.one of the main processes that you look for when you’re using fundamental analysis is who is calling the shots.that’s why we talk a lot about the coaches, the owners, coaching syndicates.they help us and are a tool to get to the truth.to anticipate outcomes into consistent and scalable, entertaining, and profitable way. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

@therealjames_h fight night UFC 11/01/25 He is 32 out of 34 winning weeksthe intricacies of sports betting, emphasizing the importance of decision science, situational intelligence, and collaboration.He shares insights on how to analyze betting strategies, track performance, and the significance of having a clear purpose and outcome in betting.The conversation also touches on the community aspect of betting and the long-term strategies for success. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

Who is making you money consistently ? Strategy - Transparency - Information flow - Exploit market inefficiencies - Return To the mean -Arbitrage -Return to mean -Law of opposites - Expect To Win Up To An 80% ProbabilityEnjoy Everything Laugh #ESBCNFLAndSportsBettingPodcastArbitrage -Exploit market inefficiencies- is how to make the most money in business - think Uber - air b and b ...same for sportsbetting Enjoy the ride This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

@therealjames_h@josuevizcay28 out 30 weeks of profitYou get to make a decision and monetize that decision without hearing lip from other people.When you get close to the truth, you can anticipate outcomes.We are the only podcast where you benefit monetarily from it.We analyze the losses and look at it for mental health.Elbows are very hard and sharp and they cause cuts in UFC fights.You start to get nervous when you get cut in a fight.You have money in your pocket without having to argue with anybody.Long-term thinking is higher level thinking in business.The evolution of UFC techniques has changed the way fights are approached.Strategic decision-making is crucial in sports betting. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

43-22=66%$18,850 profit 52.5% is breakeven 59% you can make a living sportsbetting 70% is elite This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

@therealjames_hYou get to make a decision and monetize that decision without hearing lip from other people.When you get close to the truth, you can anticipate outcomes.We are the only podcast where you benefit monetarily from it.We analyze the losses and look at it for mental health.Elbows are very hard and sharp and they cause cuts in UFC fights.You start to get nervous when you get cut in a fight.You have money in your pocket without having to argue with anybody.Long-term thinking is higher level thinking in business.The evolution of UFC techniques has changed the way fights are approached.Strategic decision-making is crucial in sports betting.UFCPicksUfcfightsufc This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe

* You get to make a decision and monetize that decision without hearing lip from other people.* When you get close to the truth, you can anticipate outcomes.* We are the only podcast where you benefit monetarily from it.* We analyze the losses and look at it for mental health.* Elbows are very hard and sharp and they cause cuts in UFC fights.* You start to get nervous when you get cut in a fight.* You have money in your pocket without having to argue with anybody.* Long-term thinking is higher level thinking in business.* The evolution of UFC techniques has changed the way fights are approached.* Strategic decision-making is crucial in sports betting. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joshabner289002.substack.com/subscribe