* The Hawthorne Effect can improve performance by 10 to 20%.

* The ESPC Podcast is a business meeting with specific outcomes.

* Josh has an MBA and a securities license.

* Clients worth $50 million and above seek good information.

* Business and financial concepts help predict outcomes.

* Consistent prediction of outcomes leads to monetization. Like Elon Musk states you get to the truth, then you consistently predict outcoms then from a business standpoint can logically monetize those outcomes

* The podcast ranks highly in sports and betting categories. 7th overall in the state florida and top 50 nationally per feedspot

* Monetizing outcomes is a primary goal of the podcast.

* but Top 10 Rules For Betting-Short Term Investing In NFL-CFB And College Basketball

* medium.com/@josuevizcay/top-10…ketball-bdc7d132490

* Learn From Mistakes “unexamined life is not worth living”

* “You learn more from losses than you do from wins”

* “An unexamined life is not worth living”

This year we are

The Problem

Dunning–Kruger Effect

* This is the best-known term.

* It refers to a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a domain overestimate their competence, often because they lack the knowledge to recognize their own mistakes.

* It doesn’t necessarily involve delusions, but it explains why someone might think they’re much more skilled at decision-making than they really are.

* Discribe the problem

Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)

* Sometimes called the “better-than-average effect.”

* People consistently rate their own decision-making, intelligence, or skills as above average, even when objective measures show otherwise.

3.Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)

Delusional Disorder / Grandiosity (Clinical Context)

* When the overestimation of ability moves beyond bias and into fixed false beliefs that resist contrary evidence, it becomes clinical.

* In psychiatry, this would be described as grandiose delusions, a symptom sometimes seen in bipolar disorder or schizophrenia.

4. Describe the solution

* Analyzing game dynamics can lead to better outcomes.

* Takeaways

* Decision Science used by fortune 500 companies

* Continuous improvement is essential in sports betting.

* Return To the Mean

* Fundamenal analysis

* Understanding team management is crucial for predictions.

* Utilizing decision science enhances betting strategies.

* Analyzing game dynamics can lead to better outcomes.

* Long-term thinking is vital in sports betting.

* Statistical analysis helps predict game outcomes.

* As Robert Glazer writes “The concept of regression to the mean was first discovered by the statistician and sociologist Sir Francis Galton. As part of his research, Galton observed that tall parents tended to have children who were shorter than them, whereas short parents often had children who were taller than them.

* Based on this, Galton developed the principle of regression to the mean, which states that in any series with complex phenomena that are dependent on many variables, where chance is involved, extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more moderate ones. In other words, if something extremely unexpected happens, it is likely to be followed by something that’s more aligned with statistical projections or expectations.

* We have a tendency to overreact to results in the short term and use those outcomes to make long term decisions, ignoring the reality of regression to the mean. In particular, we tend to ignore the role of luck and timing when evaluating extreme early outcomes. “

* The importance of collaboration in sports betting.

Over coming -Overconfidence Bias (Decision Science / Finance)

* Analyzing game dynamics can lead to better outcomes.

* In economics and behavioral finance, “overconfidence bias” is the specific term for people placing too much faith in their own judgments, leading to poor decisions and risky behavior.

* If you are being self destructive doing what you are not supposed to do purpose that depression - or life time - why important to check you thinking and system to do so no matter how successful you are

* Process is

* 1)Research

* 2) Use math (which is pattern recognition not calculation and statistics)

* 3)Rigorously apply logic

* behavioral finance

* Fundamental Analysis h

* highest level in probability is 80%/20% bad luck

* As we think in probabilities to make money off of NFL Games

* Rams- uncharacteristically turned - a pick 6 is z 14 point swing

* Miami - shut down offense in 2nd half and they were arrogant that pathethic offense can not move on us - and they almost lost the game - I was wrong to think that would make a dumb mistake like that

* Lions –3u48

* Ravens –7- 5 turnovers

* Eagles -7 (Read)

* Thought the Steelers would score more points - wrong on the total f

* Wrong total on the lord Commanders

* 2 totals I got wrong - because of soft zone late in the game- not bad luck - both that Saints and Giants suck ...as result you have to determine their ability to score against soft zone late in the game to cover big numbers

* Based on the search results, the performance increase associated with the Hawthorne Effect varies across different studies and contexts. Here are some key findings on the percentage increases reported:General productivity increase: Data compiled by Levitt & List showed roughly a 10% per year increase in productivity in the groups following the start of the Illumination Studies, regardless of whether they were part of the control or the experimental group1.Hand hygiene compliance:In one study, antiseptic hand rub (AHR) compliance increased from 29% to 45% during the overt observation period, which is approximately a 55%

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