How do high-performing ecommerce brands turn campaigns into predictable cash flow?In this episode, we break down the exact forecasting process we use at Common Thread Collective to consistently land within 0–10% of goal across dozens of brands.Growth Strategy Manager Brian Sakansky joins Richard to unpack how CTC builds forecasts, operationalizes them, and uses daily expectations to make real-time decisions that drive revenue and contribution margin.You’ll learn:Why most forecasts fail—and how to fix yoursHow CTC turns marketing calendars into financial plansThe daily system our team uses to hit targets with confidenceHow to identify the “real” problem in your data (AOV, CAC, CVR, etc.)The contingency planning that keeps brands on track when things go sideways How smaller operators can build this same process with nothing more than a spreadsheetIf you want forecasting to be more than a spreadsheet…If you want it to actually guide your decisions…And if you want to turn campaigns into reliable cash flow…Show Notes:Start your free trial now at https://bit.ly/4isWjjqExplore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
In this episode of the Podcast, we break down the real story of BFCM 2025—from forecasting accuracy to media buying chaos, offer pivots, AppLovin’s breakout performance, and what this year’s results say about the broader consumer economy.Richard and Taylor walk through:The full BFCM data recap: +7% total revenue, +10% new customers, +13% contribution marginWhy Saturday became the surprise winner of the weekendAppLovin outperforming expectations by 100%+Meta delivery volatility, and why it’s part of the gameTactical offer changes that saved entire BFCM weekendsThe rise of BNPL and concerning consumer financial behaviorWhat this all means for 2026 planningIf you’re preparing for the year ahead, this episode breaks down the numbers, the lessons, and the trends shaping how brands should think about forecasting, spending, and customer acquisition going into 2026.Show Notes:Start your free trial now at https://bit.ly/4isWjjqExplore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
Black Friday is three days away but there’s still time to tighten your strategy and avoid costly mistakes. In this episode of the podcast, the CTC team breaks down the 5 essential last-minute BFCM fixes every brand needs before the biggest weekend of the year.Whether you're behind on creative, unsure about spend pacing, or just want to sanity-check your plan…this is the checklist that will save your BFCM.What we cover:Locking spend to aMER targetsAuditing & refreshing creative without producing anything newSimplifying your offer across the entire customer journeyOperational readiness (don’t ruin a good sale!)Hour-by-hour tracking & how to take action quicklyIf you want a clean, no-nonsense guide to surviving Black Friday/Cyber Monday (and setting yourself up for your best one yet), this is the episode.Show Notes:Start your free trial now at https://bit.ly/4isWjjqExplore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
In our first CFO Summit Taylor breaks down the Board, Budget, Bonus forecasting framework—CTC’s core system for building a clear, defensible, and aligned financial plan for 2026.This replay walks you through how high-performing ecommerce brands create scenario models that serve their board, their finance team, and their operators… all without losing focus during the busy BFCM season.In this replay, you’ll learn:-The 3 scenario model every CFO should build for 2026-How to anchor your plan in real data not hope or assumptions-Why most ecommerce forecasts break (and how to fix yours)-How new vs. returning customer trends shape next year’s revenue-How to connect your marketing calendar directly to your financial plan-Why forecasting succeeds or fails based on daily executionWhether you’re a founder, CFO, VP of Finance, or operator driving next year’s plan, this replay gives you the structure and clarity to build a forecast your board—and your team—can trust.Show Notes:The CFO Summit series brought to you by: Fulfil: https://bit.ly/3JWVJ0qTaxCloud: https://bit.ly/3LQ1M7uExplore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
Meta’s new creative ranking systems are changing everything, and most brands have no idea how much it’s affecting their performance. In this episode, we break down exactly how Meta’s Black Box evaluates your ads, why your creatives are being grouped together, and why small variations (like hook swaps) no longer matter the way you think they do.Our Guest today is Reza Khadjavi, CEO at Motion, the creative reporting platform trusted by top DTC brands.What you’ll learn:Why Meta sees one ad even when you upload tenHow Andromeda assigns “priors” to your creativeWhy hook testing isn’t moving the needle anymoreHow AI labeling is changing creative analysisWhat creative diversity actually means to MetaThe end of growth hacking (and what comes next)How to build a creative strategy that still works in a black box worldIf your ads feel stuck, inconsistent, or unpredictable… This episode will explain why.Show Notes:This episode is brought to you by Tie: http://meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System:http://prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
How do you set the right ROAS target on Meta heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday?Most brands either guess… or use last month’s numbers and hope they hold.But BFCM behaves nothing like a normal period and the attribution windows prove it.In this episode, Tony and Steve walk through the real data behind Meta’s 7-day vs. 28-day click attribution, why value shifts dramatically in the weeks leading up to Black Friday, and how that should change your spend strategy right now.You’ll learn:How much value Meta under-reports in the 7-day windowWhy pre-BFCM ad spend has a longer conversion tailHow to push your ROAS target lower without tanking efficiencyHow incrementality testing plays into your spend ceilingWhy daily spending power spikes in early November—and how to use itHow to analyze YOUR 7-day vs 28-day attribution before BFCMShow Notes:This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
Most ecommerce brands build one forecast — and that’s why most forecasts are wrong.In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the 3-forecast model that every high-performing brand should use when planning for 2026: Board. Budget. Bonus.You’ll learn:Why every brand needs three forecasts, not oneHow to balance short-term execution (Black Friday) with long-term planning (2026)How to model different outcomes for your board, your operating budget, and your team goalsHow to use tools like percentage-over-model and event effect modeling to make forecasts actually usefulIf you’re leading growth, finance, or operations at a 7 to 9 figure brand, this episode will help you plan smarter, forecast with confidence, and build a roadmap that aligns your team from boardroom to bonus.Get your 2026 forecast built with CTC’s Prophit System: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-systemShow Notes:This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
Most brands are building their 2026 plan all wrong.In this episode, Taylor breaks down why you can’t walk into the new year with one financial forecast — and why the smartest brands plan three: Board, Budget, and Bonus.You’ll learn how to:Build scenario plans that align finance and marketingForecast existing and new customer revenue with confidenceConnect your marketing calendar directly to your financial goalsPresent a plan your board, your bank, and your team will actually believe inWhether you’re a CMO, CEO, or founder planning for growth in 2026, this is your playbook for making smarter decisions before the year even starts.Get your 2026 forecast built with CTC’s Prophit System: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-systemBonus Offer (through Nov 11): Sign up now and get our Black Friday Cyber Monday Hourly Tracking Report — free.Show Notes:This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
Black Friday isn’t won by guessing, it’s won hour by hour.In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how top DTC brands use real-time ad spend optimization to hit — and even exceed — their Black Friday and Cyber Monday targets.You’ll learn how hourly tracking transforms decision making during the biggest shopping weekend of the year, plus:How to spot pacing issues before it’s too lateWhen to scale ad spend versus pull back in real timeWhat hourly data reveals about buyer behavior on BFCMWhy last year’s patterns are your best forecasting tool for this yearLimited offer: Get a free Black Friday Hourly Tracking Report when you purchase a Prophit System, your full-year spend and forecasting model built by Common Thread Collective.Show Notes:This episode is brought to you by: Finaloop: https://get.finaloop.com/ecommerce-playbook-podcast/Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
After months of mixed signals, new data from the DTC Index shows ecommerce revenue is up 10% year over year — but consumer confidence is heading in the opposite direction.In this episode, host Richard sits down with Steve, CTC’s Chief Data Scientist, to unpack what’s really happening in the numbers. They dig into the latest data from our DTC Index and Consumer Confidence Index, exploring:Why returning customers are driving growth this fallThe strange disconnect between economic sentiment and spending behaviorHow to use consumer confidence data to forecast your spending powerWhat this all means for your Black Friday and 2026 planningIf you’re an ecommerce operator or growth strategist trying to separate signal from noise this holiday season, this one’s for you.Show Notes:This episode is brought to you by: Finaloop: https://get.finaloop.com/ecommerce-playbook-podcast/Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
Want to stop guessing when to spend your Meta budget during Black Friday and Cyber Monday? This episode breaks down exactly how to plan your ad spend hour by hour so you can hit your revenue goals without wasting a single dollar.Taylor Holiday and Luke Austin walk through the real data behind BFCM revenue flow, showing when sales actually spike, when performance dips, and how top DTC brands use hourly pacing to stay ahead. You’ll learn how to:Map your ad spend across Thanksgiving → Cyber MondayRead the “horseshoe” pattern of revenue flowAvoid early-morning panic when your ROAS looks badSet hourly targets using the Prophit System modelsCourse-correct in real time to hit your daily goalsWhether you’re managing a seven-figure Meta account or running your first big BFCM campaign, this framework will help you build a smarter plan — not just react to dashboards.Show Notes:Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
This is a special Friday episode feature of CTC's DTC Hotline:Most brands talk about hitting their Q4 goals — but few have a system to identify and close revenue gaps before they happen.In this episode of The DTC Hotline, Tony, Luke, and Richard break down how to spot and fill revenue shortfalls during the holidays, using the same daily frameworks CTC applies across top DTC brands.They’ll walk through:How to pinpoint whether your gap is in new or returning customersThe daily cadence CTC uses to track and close gaps in real timeWhen to deploy incrementality tests and channel expansion (like AppLovin) to recover missed revenueWhy every forecast should translate into specific daily actionsAnd how to think in “units of growth” — the building blocks of hitting your Q4 targetIf you’ve ever wondered how to turn missed forecasts into closed gaps — this episode is your blueprint.Call or text the DTC Hotline: 866-DTC-2263 (866-382-2263)Ask your burning eComm questions and we might answer them live on air.Show Notes:Whether you’re running paid ads on Meta, Google, or TikTok, FERMÀT can help you increase your conversion rates without touching your website. https://www.fermatcommerce.com/ctcExplore the Prophit System:https://www.prophitsystem.comThe DTC Hotline mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask your eCom questions.
In this special episode of the Random Show, Taylor Holiday and Andrew Faris unpack a wide-ranging conversation—from AI’s potential to predict creative performance before launch, to the messy truth about equity splits, competition, and why most brands misunderstand “growth.”They debate:Whether LLMs could replace creative testing entirelyHow to design equity partnerships that actually reflect valueWhy cloning someone else’s playbook rarely creates monopoly outcomesThe real incentives behind Meta’s “CPM psyop”And why “growth is the CEO’s job” isn’t just a slogan—it’s an organizational design principleThis is a deep dive into how systems, incentives, and creativity intersect to drive (or stall) profit growth.Show Notes:Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoHead to https://www.portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom
He left JP Morgan to build a sock brand and it worked.In this episode of podcast, Taylor sits down with Daniel Shim, founder of Ondo, the DTC brand reinventing no-show socks. They dig into how a finance background helped build a profitable ecommerce business, what it takes to stand out in a crowded category, and why growth isn’t just about scale — it’s about discipline.You’ll LearnHow a banker turned founder built Ondo from scratchThe product insight that made no-show socks workWhat it takes to scale profitably in 2025Lessons from COVID era growth to nowSubscribe for more real stories of founders building smarter, not just bigger.Show Notes:Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
Most brands treat retention and acquisition as separate strategies and that’s the problem. In this episode, we reveal why retention actually begins at acquisition and how understanding your customer lifecycle from day zero can unlock massive LTV growth.Josh Tay joins Richard to unpack how our Global Accelerator program integrates growth and lifecycle strategy into one unified system. From front-loading LTV to designing retention programs that fuel acquisition, this conversation shows how the best brands build for long-term profitability — not just quick wins.You’ll learn:Why most retention strategies fail before the first purchaseHow to connect your acquisition data to lifecycle marketingReal examples of how integrated retention drives profitabilityThe retention frameworks used inside CTC’s Global Accelerator programIf you’re a 7- or early-8-figure brand looking to increase repeat revenue, this one’s for you.Show Notes:Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comLearn more about the Global Accelerator: commonthreadco.com/acceleratorThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm
In this episode of the podcast, Taylor and Luke take you inside the system Common Thread Collective has built to define what modern media management really looks like in 2025.Media buying has evolved - incrementality, experimentation, MMM, and FP&A can’t live in silos anymore. Taylor and Luke break down how to turn these complex ideas into one cohesive, profit-first workflow that drives real business results.You’ll learn:Why data integrity is the foundation of profitable decision-makingHow to set smarter budgets with the Spending Power ModelHow to allocate across channels using incrementality benchmarksHow to operationalize measurement, testing, and optimization in one systemWhy IRoAS > ROAS (and how to make that shift inside your team)This is the exact system CTC uses to manage media for hundreds of DTC brands..Show Notes:Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comRead the blog: https://commonthreadco.com/blogs/coachs-corner/building-useful-measurements-for-profitabilityThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm
Stop guessing — start scaling.In this episode of Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how one eight-figure brand completely rewrote its Q4 plan using the Profit System’s Spend Power Model and Creative Demand Model.You’ll see exactly how reallocating ad spend, optimizing contribution margin, and forecasting creative volume can unlock immediate profit gains in the next 30 days — without guessing or overspending.What you’ll learn:How to identify overspending using the Spend Power ModelWhy cutting ad spend can increase contribution marginHow to forecast creative volume with the Creative Demand ModelThe immediate actions to take for Q4 profitabilityHow one brand uncovered $400K in incremental profitWhether you’re planning your Q4 media budget or mapping your 2026 growth strategy, this episode gives you the playbook for winning with data, not intuition..Show Notes:Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm
Most brands blow their Q4 creator budget on one thing: holiday only content. In this episode of thPodcast, Richard sits down with Adrianne, Director of Creator Content, to break down why that’s a mistake and what to do instead.Learn CTC’s full framework for sourcing and scaling creator content that actually performs through Q4 and beyond. From building evergreen briefs to managing creator timelines, Adrianne walks through the exact checklist, examples, and ad structures her team uses to keep pipelines full, ads optimized, and budgets profitable.What you’ll learn:Why holiday focused UGC is a budget trapHow to build evergreen creator briefs that scaleThe ideal timeline for sourcing, editing, and launching UGC in Q4The one still image format that outperformed every videoHow to repurpose creator content across Meta, TikTok, Pinterest & moreShow Notes:Go to https://bit.ly/4mFOWa1 to get 20% off your first 3 months of Omnisend with code CTC20.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm
As Q4 kicks off, one of the biggest levers brands can pull is their offer strategy. In this episode, Richard Gaffin (Director of Digital Product Strategy) and Taylor Holiday (CEO) break down how to design offers that maximize both new customer acquisition and retention during Black Friday/Cyber Monday.They walk through insights from CTC’s Black Friday/Cyber Monday Offer Database—a collection of 679+ offers from top eComm brands—and explain how to tailor messaging across channels like paid social, email, and SMS.You’ll learn:Why BFCM is the biggest new customer acquisition moment of the yearHow to balance broad sitewide discounts with segmented offers for VIPs or inventory clearanceThe trade-offs between discount depth, inventory availability, and timing across the holiday seasonCommon pitfalls brands face (like over/under-spending and missing the true margin math)Why transparency about your actual market position matters when setting offer expectationsIf you want to build an offer strategy that actually maps to your numbers—and not just guesswork—this episode will get you there.Show Notes:Go to https://bit.ly/4mFOWa1 to get 20% off your first 3 months of Omnisend with code CTC20.Join over 15,000 merchants protecting their revenue with Chargeflow. Use our promo code CF30 and start saving money, time, and sanity today: https://app.chargeflow.io/auth/sign-in?utm_source=ctc+hotline%2C+podcast&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=CTC+Hotline+%26+Chargeflow&utm_id=CTC+HotlineExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom
In this special episode, we share Taylor Holiday’s keynote from Stord’s Summit.(https://www.stord.com/) He unpacks the four eras of DTC—COVID’s boom, the lean “Ozempic era,” and what he calls the “Flow Era.” Drawing from CTC’s dataset, client stories, and industry benchmarks, Taylor explains why 2025 could mark the strongest period in DTC history.You’ll learn:Why the excess of capital and demand during COVID was both logical and unsustainable.How the “Ozempic era” forced brands to get lean—and why that was necessary for survival.The financial mechanics that quietly cap growth when brands self-fund.How product-led growth, compelling stories, and supplier financing separate the winners.Why natural selection in e-commerce has created a stronger species of brands ready for what’s next.If you want a clear picture of how we got here—and why the brands that remain are better positioned than ever—this keynote is essential listening.Show Notes:Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors?Check out AllStars and Book Your Strategy Call:https://www.hireallstars.com/contactExplore the Prophit System:https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom.