The big things you need to know:First, with the S&P 500 having finally entered what we consider to be tier 1 / garden-variety-pullback territory on Thursday, we review what we’re watching to help us gauge if / when the pullback has run its course.Second, with old leadership within US equities under pressure, we review which trades are working best right now (or might be starting to work) among the data sets we track regularly (Small Caps – at least on Friday and Value, sectors with valuation appeal, and safer factors).Third, we review what we learned from the consumer companies that reported over the past week (companies highlight a mixed macro backdrop, ongoing and intense consumer challenges, ample inventories, their ability to manage through tariffs, and more specific AI use case examples).
The big things you need to know:First, earnings sentiment staged a partial comeback last week as the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500 moved up again slightly vs. the prior week but remained below its August high.Second, we run through the latest big picture takeaways from S&P 500 earnings calls.Third, other things on our mind include our work the valuation profile of high earnings quality stocks within Small Cap and how we’re thinking about the government shutdown.
The big things you need to know:First, the percent of S&P 500 companies beating consensus EPS forecasts remains well above 2Q25 levels despite slipping a little last week. Meanwhile, the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions improved slightly but remains well below the high of the last reporting season.Second, macro commentary in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls remained mixed and varied by sector, with the strongest tone coming out of Tech and Health Care and the weakest tone coming from Consumer.Third, we noticed more tricks than treats as we ran through our latest updates over Halloween weekend, and run through some of the charts that are spooking us the most on the broader market right now.
The big things you need to know:First, 3Q25 reporting season has gotten off to a strong start on beat rates for the major indices, but we are continuing to see deterioration in the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, the biggest market cap names in those indices, and the rest of both indices when their top weights are excluded – something we continue to see as a challenge for performance if it persists.Second, we run through the main macro takeaways we found in our review of last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls. The tone on the overall macro, consumer and tariffs came across as mixed, with a number of companies expressing optimism about improvements / stabilization underway or potentially coming into view.Third, other things that jump out in our updates this week include a new study we’ve published on the relationship between ROEs and P/Es in the major Small, Mid and Large Cap indices.
The big things you need to know: First, solid commentary from the S&P 500 Financials that reported last week helped get 3Q25 reporting season off to a good start, though it was overshadowed by private credit concerns. Second, we reviewed stock market performance in early 2023 around the regional banking crisis as a starting point for thinking about risks to the broader US equity market. Third, other things that jump out include further deterioration in earnings revisions trends for the major indices and stalling sentiment.
The big things you need to know:First, earnings sentiment has been fading for the broader US equity market and is at a critical juncture for the biggest market cap names and Tech sector within the S&P 500.Second, macro signals were mixed from the S&P 500 companies that reported over the past few weeks.Third, our thoughts on Friday’s weakness in the S&P 500.
The big things you need to know:First, across all industries and regions, our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months.Second, at the global sector level our analysts have the most positive performance outlooks for REITs, Materials and Financials.Third, our analysts were slightly less optimistic on forward performance for Europe/UK than other regions.Fourth, our analysts generally had mixed views of the policy backdrop.Fifth, when we look at some of our macro indicators, Canada has been the bright spot in terms of performance YTD and over the past month.
The big things you need to know:First, many of the US equity investors we met with last week were frustrated and wary.Second, other things that jump out in our work include a speech by the USTR to the financial community in NYC last week, the recent fade in the broadening trade and Small Cap leadership, the continued easing in earnings sentiment, and expectations around the shutdown’s duration in betting markets.
The big things you need to know:First, we review what clients were most interested in talking about on our trip to the UK last week, which included differences between US and UK investor sentiment, valuations, geographical funds flows, and sectors.Second, we recap the macro tidbits we picked up from last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls (where the auto-related names had a negative tone), our takeaways from the Duke CFO survey that came out last week (optimism about their own companies moved up slightly), and what we learned from our review of how stocks have traded around government shutdowns in the past.
The big things you need to know: • First, weakness in Homebuilders doesn’t bode well for the recent outperformance of Small Caps. • Second, we’ve continued to see some slippage in earnings sentiment (the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions) for the S&P 500, which has been driven by companies outside of the biggest market cap names. • Third, bulls picked up sharply in the AAII survey last week. • Fourth, our work on US equity market performance in the 12-month period following non-recession-related Fed cuts and reset cuts highlights upside risk to our 2H26 S&P 500 target price of 7,100. • Fifth, capex growth improved in 2Q25. • Sixth, US equity funds flows bounced back last week, driven by US-domiciled funds.
The big thing you need to know:The big thing you need to know: We are introducing preliminary forecasts for the S&P 500 for 2026 of 7,100 (a 2H26 price target) and $297 (full-year 2026 S&P 500 EPS). We think they should be viewed as a very early indication of how our models are tracking at the moment.
RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market.The big things you need to know:First, we see Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report as having added some additional uncertainty to the US equity market outlook at a time when we’ve been on guard for choppiness for other reasons.Second, we reiterate our overweight stance on the S&P 500 Materials sector.Third, other things that jump out to us include the weakness in bitcoin and the deterioration in US equity flows and retail flows specifically, which add to our near-term concerns.
The big things you need to know: First, 2Q earnings season wrapped up with downward pressure on 2026 sector EPS forecasts & Small Cap operating margin forecasts. Second, following Friday’s news that the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit had ruled against the reciprocal tariffs, we think corporate uncertainty around tariffs will remain elevated.
The big things you need to know:First, a better longer-term EPS outlook and more resilient operating margin forecasts help explain the recent outperformance of mega cap growth stocks and growth-oriented sectorsSecond, Small Caps recently saw a brief/mild outperformance pop on mounting Fed cut optimism, but we remain neutral on Small Caps given elevated valuations and below-average consensus GDP expectations.Third, mixed vibes to end the summer make us question whether the sentiment recovery that has powered US stocks may soon hit a speed bump.
The big thing you need to know: First, with reporting season starting to wind down, Health Care and Tech stand out positively on a few of our earnings-related sector stats. Second, we recap what we read in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls. The overall tone improved vs. the prior week, but we still detected plenty of uncertainty as reporting season winds down particularly on demand, the consumer, mitigation levers yet to be pulled, and capex. Third, we run through a few other things that jump out on our high frequency indicators including the surge in Growth stocks, waning investor sentiment, and the sharp US equity funds outflows seen in the latest EPFR data.
The big thing you need to know:Our overall impression from 2Q25 reporting season is that companies are managing through tariffs fairly well so far, but it’s still too early to assume tariffs won’t generate inflation pressures. We run through four takeaways on what we learned in 2Q25 reporting season last week regarding the overall tone, the state of demand, the consumer, and the timing of tariff impacts.
The big things you need to know:First, we run through our first impressions from week 1 of 2Q25 reporting season in terms of both the stats and company commentary. Out of the gate, our impression is that it’s been fine but not fabulous.Second, we review what else jumps out to us on our high frequency indicators which includes the underperformance of quality factors, average levels of bullishness on the weekly AAII retail investor survey, and subdued flows to US equity funds.
The big things you need to know: First, we are lifting our year-end 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,250, essentially taking our price target back to where it was in mid-March. Second, there is no change to our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast of $258, which is slightly below consensus. We also review what we’ve learned from the early reporters, which makes us think it’s too early to stop worrying about tariff impacts. Third, we’re adding the momentum trade and earnings sentiment for mega cap growth to the list of things worrying us about the stock market near-term.
The big things you need to know:First, we review the bull thesis that we heard in client meetings last week, and our thoughts on where it could go wrong.Second, we review how the rally in equities has been looking a bit overdone on our valuation and EPS modeling, and how we’re also starting to run out of room on one of our sentiment studies.Third, conditions are rather mixed for US equities at the moment. We walk through things that look good, and things that look not so good. In the latter camp, one thing that stands out as particularly important to us is the failure of c-suite sentiment in widely followed surveys to inflect positively, as has been the case with consumer, small business, and investor sentiment surveys.
Four big things you need to know: First, globally our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months. Second, driven in part by our survey results, we are making six changes to our US sector calls – we dig in a little deeper to the upgrades of Materials, Consumer Staples, and REITs here. Third, while we don’t make recommendations on non-US sectors, we do highlight how Financials is a favorite across the globe among our analysts. Fourth, improving 2026 consensus GDP forecasts are a positive outlier for the US compared to our other coverage regions, which we think has been helping boost US performance.