Watching the Homebuilders, EPS Revisions, Investor Sentiment, Capex, and Flows
Update: 2025-09-23
Description
The big things you need to know:
• First, weakness in Homebuilders doesn’t bode well for the recent outperformance of Small Caps.
• Second, we’ve continued to see some slippage in earnings sentiment (the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions) for the S&P 500, which has been driven by companies outside of the biggest market cap names.
• Third, bulls picked up sharply in the AAII survey last week.
• Fourth, our work on US equity market performance in the 12-month period following non-recession-related Fed cuts and reset cuts highlights upside risk to our 2H26 S&P 500 target price of 7,100.
• Fifth, capex growth improved in 2Q25.
• Sixth, US equity funds flows bounced back last week, driven by US-domiciled funds.
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