THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast

In the NFL season preview podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic) discusses the AFC and NFC divisional betting breakdowns ahead of the season’s start next week.Matt touches on all 32 teams, and why there isn’t a bet to make on all of them nor every division, even if there’s reason to be high or low on many teams. Plus, a look back at Week 0 in college football, where we went 2-1 on a trio of bets that could have gone either way. Maybe you missed it?College Football Preview Podcast Pt. 1: The Power-5, and futures stakingCollege Football Preview Podcast Pt. 2: Group of Five, CFP make/miss, Heisman report, and National ChampionshipFree for Yahoo!: College Football Playoff - Make/MissHeisman Trophy best betsGroup of 5 conference previewsSEC betting previewFree for Yahoo!: Big Ten betting previewACC betting previewBig 12 betting previewFree for Yahoo!: Tips to get you started in sports bettingFree: College Football Preseason estimated market power ratingsFree for Yahoo!: College Football Game of the Year bettingFree: College Football’s outlier teams ahead of 2025Thursday, August 28th is the last day to become a Founding Member in time to be included in our Circa Survivor Contest entry, where you’ll win a 1% share of the winnings just by being a WINDOW pane!It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

In part 2 of the college football betting preview podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic) discusses the Group of Five conferences, who’s worth a bet to make and miss the College Football Playoff, and the Heisman Trophy outlook before the season starts. Matt discusses the two teams in the American worth betting, but why those wagers should come in two different markets. Then, is Liberty a fade in Conference USA? Why you need to catch a team on the way up earlier in the G5 — especially the MAC. The Mountain West is Boise’s to lose again, but there’s a pair of teams that at least have a chance. Finally, there are few instances when a team has a ceiling that’s not captured by the betting market, but there might be one in the Sun Belt. After three surprise qualifiers for the CFP last year, who can be the long shots to hit in Year 2 of the 12-teamer? Plus, is Clemson a lock for the playoff? If there’s one upper-echelon team who could miss the CFP, who would it be? Maybe you missed it?College Football Preview Podcast Pt. 1: The Power-5, and futures stakingFree for Yahoo!: College Football Playoff - Make/MissHeisman Trophy best betsGroup of 5 conference previewsSEC betting previewFree for Yahoo!: Big Ten betting previewACC betting previewBig 12 betting previewFree for Yahoo!: Tips to get you started in sports bettingFree: College Football Preseason estimated market power ratingsFree for Yahoo!: College Football Game of the Year bettingFree: College Football’s outlier teams ahead of 2025In the first Heisman report of the season, Matt talks about the unique scenario around the trio of favorites, and how two are facing each other, while Arch Manning is an underdog in the Texas Opener.Finally, Matt picks out his best bet for the national championship, and why it’s surprised even him, based on how he perceived this team coming out of last season. It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

In part 1 of the college football betting preview podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic) discusses the quartet of conference betting previews he’s written. The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC betting previews are out, and Matt expands on how he views each league. What is he looking for in a conference championship bet, and why, for many teams, regular season win total bets aren’t necessary?  Also, Matt expands on some of the teams that don’t have a valuable bet attached to them; Like why Oklahoma is a more interesting team than a bet-able one, if Penn State is finally trustworthy, the market’s love for Clemson and how a good Tigers’ season might send ripples into the Big Ten and SEC’s chances for four teams in the College Football Playoff. Plus, the Big 12 is a mess with no clear favorite again, does that make it a 1-bid league ala college basketball?Maybe you missed it?Free for Yahoo!: Tips to get you started in sports bettingFree: College Football Preseason estimated market power ratingsFree for Yahoo!: College Football Game of the Year bettingFree: College Football’s outlier teams ahead of 2025Also, Matt answers some common questions around staking futures. Why staking can be a personal thing relative to how you feel about a bet. For example, if you like a team to win their division at +250, are you planning on bet on that team in other markets, or repeatedly throughout the season game-to-game?How to stake based on a winning outcome — like budgeting a total risk on a few entities in an awards market, but splitting that budget in a way to net the same return. Eg. A $10 budget spread across five players, to win a gross amount of $50 might look like this:Player A: $1 at 50-1 =$50Player B: $5 at 10-1=$50Player C: $2 at 25-1=$50Player D: $0.5 at 100-1=$50Player E: $1.50 at 33-1=$50Finally, Matt suggests that the goal should always be to accumulate a long-term return (ROI) of 5%. If that means 300 bets lined at -110 for a record 165-135 (55%), or going 1-20 on 21 futures bets, with the one winner coming at 21-1. It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

On this week’s episode of THE WINDOW, Matt (@mrussauthentic on Twitter) discusses turning the paywall switch on; The minimal growing pains for Day 1 and why there’s a buffer before the first article that will go behind it. Then it’s time to talk football. There are numerous free pieces outlining how we’re getting ready for the football season in both college and the NFL:Free for Yahoo!: Tips to get you started in sports bettingNFL Pre-training camp estimated market power ratingsOne big question for each team in the AFCOne big question for each team in the NFCCollege Football Preseason estimated market power ratings Free for Yahoo!: College Football Game of the Year bettingCollege Football’s outlier teams ahead of 2025Matt discusses his article for Yahoo!, which breaks down some tips for those just getting started in sports betting, and for anyone feeling a little rusty. Then Matt describes our advantage in betting. While we’ll never know all the ins and out of high-level football, we can be experts in market valuation - the other side of the sports betting coin - by using a rating system for how the market perceives teams at any given moment during the season. Matt further explains his one big question of each NFL team heading into the season and describes how a bet might be tied to the answer. Lastly, Matt runs down the teams that the market expects more from in college football this season, and those that it expects to take a step back. Why being over-rated or under-rated doesn’t necessarily raise red flags, and how come there are fewer outliers than it seems relative to the total number of FBS teams. It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic) pauses summer vacation to check in with an update on the future of THE WINDOW, and what he’s been up to during the hiatus by half-breaking some news that changes its future.Then Matt summarizes the sports world of the last month, as it’s been arguably the most boring sports stretch since the pandemic, and the benefits of taking a break from betting to catch up on the latest television offerings and work on the golf game. ______________________________________________________Maybe you missed it:“Amen to business”: The future of THE WINDOW______________________________________________________It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

On the Friday show, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) looks back at another winning Thursday-nighter, as the Rams got the Panes on the board in the Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay (RUMP), and Demarcus Robinson led the way in player prop betting.  Matt breaks down how one of his favorite coach F’d around with the football Gods and found out, what to do with star injury returns in the prop market, and why he feels no guilt about the Rams getting away with a late-game facemask. Then Matt talks about quite a night for Kyle McCord. Matt closes the show with all the usual podcast-only bets for the weekend, including “Hook ‘n’ Ladder” where he goes searching for a player set to pop off this Sunday. It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go! Subscribe for FREE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mrussauthentic.substack.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the rest of the bets in NFL, CFB and more.

Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic) breaks down what’s happening with the podcast and why. Then he unloads the notebook on the upcoming NFL and NCAA season.

On Monday’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) looks back at Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final between the Panthers and Oilers. Florida suffocates Edmonton to take a 3-2 series lead, but all the action in the betting market continues to happen around the Conn Smythe. Then, Matt looks back at a wild U.S. Open Final Round. How he landed on Adam Scott as his in-tournament bet of choice before Saturday’s third round, only to see things fly out of control at Oakmont on Sunday, as JJ Spaun pulls off a stunning comeback. Why the rainy conditions flipped the final round on its head, and how the weekend felt like an old school golf major - a scenario more like “players against the course” versus stars showing out in runaway or a mega-duel. Maybe you missed it?Stanley Cup Final in-series updateStanley Cup Final series previewNFL Schedule Release: Updated market ratings and looking at lookahead lines“Amen to business”: The future of THE WINDOWFinally, with the Thunder wresting control back of the NBA Finals from the Pacers, is there anything that might be worth a bet in the season’s remaining games? It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!Subscribe for FREE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mrussauthentic.substack.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the rest of the bets in NFL, CFB, CBB, NHL and more.

On Friday’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) looks back at a pivotal, instant-classic Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final between the Panthers and Oilers.Sam Bennett JUST misses a critical goal, only to see Leon Draisaitl bank-in a shot to seal the Oilers’ comeback win, threading a needle to get into Conn Smythe contention that was “2%” likely.How that turn of events flipped multiple markets, and the four different ways the final three games can go:Oilers win, McDavid wins Conn SmytheOilers win, Draisaitl wins Conn Smythe Panthers win, Bennett wins Conn SmythePanthers win, someone other than Bennett wins Conn Smythe What’s the strategy to try to best set ourselves up to secure a profit on the Stanley Cup Final? Maybe you missed it?Stanley Cup Final in-series updateStanley Cup Final series previewNFL Schedule Release: Updated market ratings and looking at lookahead lines“Amen to business”: The future of THE WINDOWThe NBA Finals are “over” as far as the +2.5 series spread bet is concerned. Why there’s nothing more to do but enjoy a close series.Finally, Matt touches on the first round of the US Open, and the door that’s open with the struggles of Scottie Scheffler.It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!Subscribe for FREE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mrussauthentic.substack.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the rest of the bets in NFL, CFB, CBB, NHL and more.

On Monday’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) does a deep dive into the second and third games of the Stanley Cup Playoffs’ Conference Finals.While the scoreboard looks lopsided for all of them, which games have told a different story than their results?Carolina’s previously excellent goaltending has, all of a sudden, had more than just five holes.Are the Panthers overwhelming the Hurricanes with their forecheck, or are they just doing a better job of converting the occasional chance that it creates? Also, was there any way to know the Panthers’ defenseman would be the offensive threat they’ve managed to be? Eastern Conference Final PreviewWestern Conference Final PreviewNFL Schedule Release: Updated market ratings and looking at lookahead lines“Amen to business”: The future of THE WINDOWThe big question: What does luck look like?Matt discusses why the eye test is important in evaluating these games beyond the metrics, as Stuart Skinner’s performance continues to vacillate, the Oilers get all the breaks in a Game 2 and 3 (in a sport loaded with them), and why Jake Oettinger’s track record is enough to stave off worry about a bad game. Sam Bennett’s stock is up since we added him to the Conn Smythe portfolio, is there anyone else worth adding into that mix?Plus, why is the NBA so hard to bet on? After some successful live-betting in each Game 2, Matt looks at the results from Game 3 of Knicks-Pacers and Thunder-Timberwolves, and how the market’s reacted in the lines for Game 4.It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!Subscribe for FREE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mrussauthentic.substack.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the rest of the bets in NFL, CFB, CBB, NHL and more.

On Thursday’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) does a deep dive into the first games of the Stanley Cup Playoffs’ Conference Finals.Carolina goes down to Florida in the ECF opener, but was a 5-2 loss reflective of the actual performance by the Hurricanes, and is a -3 GSAx a fair assessment of Frederik Andersen? With Carolina now +200 for the series, is there reason to add to a position on the Canes?The Stars put on another third period performance for the ages to top the Oilers in Game 1 of the WCF. While Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are visually intimidating, is that affecting the qualitative perception of this matchup when they’re at their best?Eastern Conference Final PreviewWestern Conference Final PreviewThere’s a long shot worth adding in the Conn Smythe Trophy market from a team whose most valuable player has been hard to pinpoint through two series.Plus, Matt’s had his eye on the NBA Conference Finals, is there a reason to look for an opportunity in the live-betting market during games in each series?It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!Subscribe for FREE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mrussauthentic.substack.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the rest of the bets in NFL, CFB, CBB, NHL and more.

On Monday’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) looks back at the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.The Stars and Hurricanes have punched their ticket to their respective conference finals, as Dallas puts away the Jets in six games after Carolina took care of the Capitals in five. Why the return of Miro Heiskanen might end up being the difference-maker we had hoped.The Oilers finished off the Golden Knights, on the strength of… wait… the goaltending of Stuart Skinner??All of those results pales in comparison to the Panthers and Maple Leafs going the distance. Matt breaks down what’s happening in Toronto, and why the fervour in the market is why expectations may never be met. The key players were the right ones when they were acquired, but do they have “It”? Is it a cultural issue or are the wrong people hired to move the chess pieces around? Or, is it just a matter of bad “puck luck” when it comes to timing for this group?Then, Matt looks back at the PGA Championship as it provided a really good example of why waiting to bet outrights is the right move, even in a loss. It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!Subscribe for FREE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mrussauthentic.substack.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the rest of the bets in NFL, CFB, CBB, NHL and more.

On Tuesday’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) looks back at how things are going in Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.The “buzz around the range” about the Maple Leafs is that they “look like the old Leafs,” but is that really true? We dig into the metrics comparing Games 1 and 2 with Games 3 and 4, before looking at how the betting market has found its way to the current odds for what is now a “best of three” series, and why they’re wider than before Game 1.Our bet on the Hurricanes (-150) to win their series over the Capitals is in great shape, but it’s come with the market being overbought on Carolina. When is it right to back the underdog while holding a series ticket on the favorite?The market has finally caught up to the Oilers ahead of Game 5, why parsing through the circumstances for Game 3 and 4 was the key to good betting. Speaking of price-shopping, the Stars were valuable in Game 3 compared to our target pricing listed in the Dallas-Winnipeg series preview. With the Stars up to -150 for Game 4, is that a sign of the return of Miro Heiskanen?Plus, in a podcast-only feature, Matt looks at the Conn Smythe Trophy market, confused about how the some sportsbooks are treating our super-sneaky, super-longshot.Matt weighs in on the leak-fest that is the NFL schedule release - why that’s more for the fans than the bettors, and that’s OK. Plus, it’s time for another reminder about the best way to attack golf betting with another major this week - the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Matt’s got six picks to keep an eye for the win, and six more for the top-20 markets. It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!Subscribe for FREE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mrussauthentic.substack.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the rest of the bets in NFL, CFB, CBB, NHL and more.

On Friday’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) looks back at the early games in Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Panthers have a goaltending issue that was at least kind of predictable??…“‘The Maple Leafs have the goaltending advantage in this series’.That’s a helluva sentence that the numbers are trying to sell us on, even at a 2% win probability estimation. Anthony Stolarz was better than Sergei Bobrovsky since the 4 Nations Face-off break, and as we see above, the Leafs’ netminder was better in the first round, relative to an average goaltender.”- THE WINDOW’s Panthers-Leafs series preview…but also unbelievable until you see it yourself. What the advanced metrics (through two games) and the current betting market are telling you, in the most interesting series from a betting standpoint. Then Matt discusses why the Hurricanes are doing “Hurricane things,” the Oilers are putting it altogether, and the hopes that the Stars can not just win their series with Winnipeg but, as an added bonus, can do so quickly. Plus, in a podcast-only feature, Matt looks at the Conn Smythe Trophy market and why there’s a sneaky super-longshot worth adding. It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!Subscribe for FREE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mrussauthentic.substack.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the rest of the bets in NFL, CFB, CBB, NHL and more.

On Monday’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) looks back at a pair of historically improbably Game 7 comeback wins.The Stars keep hope alive for those holding Stanley Cup futures tickets on a team who might be getting better, while the Jets save their season and maybe the future of their goaltender with a last-second goal and a double-overtime victory.What to make of that second round series going forward, along with a forensic autopsy of the other three series to end since Thursday. Plus, there’s a familiar name to add to the Conn Smythe Trophy portfolio ahead of Round 2. Finally, Matt quickly looks back at last week’s article about the NFL’s regular-season win total market, the NFL Draft, and how we have a first look at NFL team market power ratings - the basis of understanding for NFL betting next season.It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!Subscribe for FREE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mrussauthentic.substack.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the rest of the bets in NFL, CFB, CBB, NHL and more.