DiscoverEA Forum Podcast (All audio)“Sentinel: Early Detection and Response for Global Catastrophes” by rai, NunoSempere
“Sentinel: Early Detection and Response for Global Catastrophes” by rai, NunoSempere

“Sentinel: Early Detection and Response for Global Catastrophes” by rai, NunoSempere

Update: 2025-11-18
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Description

tl;dr: Sentinel is an open-source intelligence organization that rapidly identifies and reacts to global risks, particularly ones difficult to anticipate over longer time-horizons. We have filled $700K of our ~$1.6M budget and are looking to fill the rest to expand and sustain our large-scale open source monitoring for GCR.

About Sentinel

Sentinel is an open-source intelligence organization that focuses on rapidly identifying and reacting to global risks. During times of relative calm we build tooling and use the judgment of world-class forecasters to monitor events that could escalate into global catastrophes on relatively short timescales. We then distribute our resulting analysis through our weekly brief and on Twitter, which builds the distribution capacity and reputation that will allow for high leverage during times of crisis. During times of turmoil we focus on fast, permissionless action, like that of VaccinateCA.

Over the next few years, as AI gets more capable and more integrated, dangers will become more hectic and more common, and observe-orient-decide-act loops (or even just the observe step) around new dangers will need to become faster for them to make a difference. Big-picture strategic-thinking is valuable when it works, but it often misses key details that a dedicated [...]

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Outline:

(00:36 ) About Sentinel

(02:48 ) Verticals & Concrete Projects

(02:52 ) OSINT & Epistemics Software

(04:53 ) Foresight Team

(06:18 ) Emergency response

(11:44 ) Content & Distribution

(12:45 ) Team

(14:44 ) Track Record & Recent Progress

(14:48 ) Foresight

(16:07 ) Software

(16:38 ) Distribution

(17:42 ) Emergency response

(18:03 ) Impact estimate

(19:40 ) How Sentinel fits with other projects in the space

(22:28 ) Donate and Follow Us

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First published:

November 18th, 2025



Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GAFwc5jGFjqSetJiu/sentinel-early-detection-and-response-for-global


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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.


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Images from the article:

A waterfall chart titled
Two distribution graphs showing
Lines of code calculating sentinel system impact on catastrophic and existential risk.
Calibration plot titled

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“Sentinel: Early Detection and Response for Global Catastrophes” by rai, NunoSempere

“Sentinel: Early Detection and Response for Global Catastrophes” by rai, NunoSempere