What impact will the return of Covid in the community have on Election 2020? Plus Gerry Brownlee's conspiracies, Labour's Ardern-astic launch, and Merv & Mellow in Auckland Central.

By Tim Watkin

Campaigns suspended just as they began. Election day in doubt. And - following the 'words beginning with C' theme from last week's Caucus podcast - heated debate over conspiracies and constitutional conventions as Covid returns to the community. This week in politics has been a disaster for Election 2020; you might even call it a cluster%$&!.

The announcement Tuesday evening of four new cases of Covid-19 in the community stopped the election campaign in its tracks. With advance voting due to start in 23 days, the prime minister now faces a tough decision. Delay or stay the course towards September 19? Given parliament wasn't dissolved this week, Jacinda Ardern retains the discretion to change the election day at will. But practically the Electoral Commission will need time to adapt and in the interests of fairness she will need to consult with all parties in parliament.

Politically, it's in Labour's interests to stick with September 19. As Scott Campbell says in the podcast, the longer uncertainty goes on, if transmission spreads, and as the economic damage grows, the riskier it gets for the governing parties and Labour in particular.

For now, Ardern has the daily podium of power, what is effectively a party political broadcast, which gives Labour a distinct advantage over other parties. With uncertainty in the air, voters may be more reluctant than ever to change governments. Incumbency is her friend. For now.

But if community transmission takes a turn for the worse and our largest city stays locked down for a long period, the public mood could quickly change. Either uncertainty over the source of transmission or a source that can be blamed on the government puts at risk Labour's comfortable lead in the polls. As Lisa Owen points out, Labour could employ a 'low target' strategy, waiting it out until election day. Now, there are so many moving parts it doesn't have the control it had a week ago.

While it's National's leader Judith Collins raising questions about Ardern's daily press conferences so close to an election and the advantage they offer, Ardern herself may want to be far from the press galleries searing questions as the days go by.

On that other side of the fence, a delayed election could be a boon for National. Judith Collins has a mountain to climb and the longer she gets to climb it, the better. Moving it to late November, closer to Christmas, will put pressure on vote counting and coalition negotiations. So next year may be better than…

Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details