Today’s episode of the podcast covers some NFL Leaderboards, dives into a discussion about Early Declare and Super Senior statuses, and then finishes with the Week 11 Discussion. As usual, I did not write up the NFL Notes, but I do have at least some brief observations about Early Declare and Super Senior status by position group.

This is not meant to be a definitive study, more an observation about where the league is and recent trends.

After that, as always, the Week 11 Preview which looks forward to some crucial 2026 QB match-ups.

Early Declares and Super Seniors by Position

For this an analysis, an Early Declare is anyone who leaves college the minimum 3 years after high school. A Super Senior is anyone who leaves college 5+ years after high school.

To be clear, I don’t think the analysis is re-inventing the wheel in any way, shape, or form and much of this is probably self-evident to at least some people, but I would wager even some of those people might be shocked by the degree in some of these points.

* This should surprise no one, but the QB position is the only position — particularly at the top — where being a Super Senior is not a detriment particularly relative to being an early declare in recent memory. Several elite QBs (Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Bo Nix) are Super Seniors, and QB is the only position where choosing between the top three Early Declares and top three Super Seniors would be a debate; the top 3 Early Declares on KTC right now are Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, and Patrick Mahomes, so they still may have the edge here, but compare that to WR where the KTC rankings would make a similar comparison Ricky Pearsall, Jayden Reed, and Terry McLaurin v Ja’Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Justin Jefferson.

* RB is the position where the TOP END is the most dominated by Early Declares. The top 6 RBs and 13 of the top 14 RBs are Early Declares (Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, Ashton Jeanty, De’Von Achane, Omarion Hampton, Quinshon Judkins, Bucky Irving, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams). That said, the gap between simply being a senior and a super senior, at least in the moment, seems less extreme at RB compared to WR. James Cook is the other RB in the Top 14, and as a 4th Year player, he creates the biggest divide between Senior and Super Senior, but players like Chase Brown, Jaylen Warren, and before his injury Cam Skattebo are more highly valuable to their positions relative to the Seniors and compared to the WR position.

* At WR, within the top 24, there is a 2/3 to 1/3 preference towards the Early Declares, with 8 Early Declare WRs in the top 12 and 16 Early Declare WRs in the top 24. Beyond that though, the most unique aspect of WRs in this analysis is the complete lack of players achieving significant success after becoming Super Seniors. Ricky Pearsall and Jayden Reed have had some relative success aside from injuries, but injuries are a relevant reality in the sport, and if they do not turn their careers around soon, the biggest 5th Year WR hit since Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel — both of whom are ~30 YO now — is probably Rashid Shaheed? Or perhaps still Jayden Reed even with the injuries. Since the podcast, Deebo has fallen out of the Top 50 and Shaheed has risen into the top 50, but essentially these 5 WRs are the 5 that rest near or above the fringe of WR50. That is a very small number of relevant players throughout the entire position.

* As one additional note, among the 8 WRs who have Senior (not super) status in the Top 24 on KTC, four of these eight WRs (Egbuka, Odunze, DeVonta, Olave) had an excellent season with high draft status prior to returning for their four season. Two more of these WRs (Ladd & Puka) were heavily impacted by injuries throughout their collegiate careers. This is why, in my eyes, even the bar for a fourth year player at the WR position should be very high or have significant excuse as to why they were not able to become more successful earlier in their careers. My belief is that this is because WR is so skills driven that early skills development is still underrated in the scouting process.

This is admittedly not the most optimistic analysis, and I did not spin it directly like this on the podcast, but there is a reason that I bring all these items up on a Show/Sub that slants to the NFL Draft:

There’s some evidence that being an Early Declare for Dante Moore would be more enticing for teams to the extent that it might help him stay in the First Round relative to maybe a similar QB with a similar season who was a 4th Year player, but the fact that so many of those QBs being drafted as Early Declares are on the bottom of the top 20-28 QBs might suggest that for Dante Moore, if he wants to be a very good QB, staying at Oregon might be the most logical decision. And for Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, while at other positions returning for a 5th Year would be a detriment, there’s not necessarily anything obvious in the numbers right now — particularly if your goal is to be a very good QB — that suggests going back for a 5th Year is a bad idea.

At RB, our top two don’t need discussed here, but particularly as Jonah Coleman may re-enter the RB2 conversation with the injury to Justice Haynes, this is just another sign that Coleman best abilities might lie in FLOOR and not CEILING.

And at WR, luckily our top three are fine here — it is part of what makes them the top 3. Jordyn Tyson is the only senior, but he slides nicely into that category that also fits Egbuka, DeVonta, Odunze, and Olave. The concern is more as we get into the stages where Chris Bell, Germie Bernard, and even Denzel Boston are becoming first round picks that people are excited about. Boston scores okay compared to those players, but is a clear step down. Bell and Bernard are not particularly close. That doesn’t mean they can’t be very good WRs, but unless there is more well-rounded development, they are the two players right now where they seem like they may slip into my own 1st Round, but in most drafts I would not want to rank them with a Top 12 grade.

Make sure to check out the Fantasy for Real podcast where I go over these games in preparation for Week 11.

After a few weeks where the match-ups for the 2026 QBs were not quite as exciting, this weekend showcases many of our top QBs matched up in important games. The biggest match-up and Game of the Week features LSU & Garrett Nussmeier taking on Alabama & Ty Simpson, with Nussmeier in particular needing to take advantage of the limited opportunities he has left before the 2026 NFL Draft. Aside from this top game, both Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza find themselves against tricky defenses in road environments. This is another big opportunity week for the 2026 QB Class with plenty of other big games to look through as well.

Friday Night Lights

Northwestern @ USC at 9:00 PM on FOX

Key Players: Griffin Wilde, WR, Northwestern (2026) ; Jayden Maiava, QB, USC (2026) ; Makai Lemon, WR, USC (2026) ; Ja’Kobi Lane, WR, USC (2026)

Not too much action late Friday night, but USC does have one of the most intriguing teams for the 2026 NFL Draft in particular. While the injury to Waymond Jordan and playing through injuries for Ja’Kobi Lane has limited some of the intrigue, this team still features two potential Day 2 or higher WRs including a top 3 WR in Makai Lemon. QB Jayden Maiava flirted with the First Round QB conversation, but right now seems to be firmly on the outside looking in after poor performances the last two weeks. This game is unlikely to get him back in the conversation, but it can get him on the right track for at least Day 2 moving forward. For Northwestern, Griffin Wilde remains an intriguing, productive player within College Football. A third year player in his first year in the Big Ten, Wilde is very likely the most important member of the Northwestern offense.

Week 11 College Football GAMEDAY Previews

GAME OF THE WEEK

LSU @ Alabama at 7:30 PM on ABC

Key Players: Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (2026) ; Harlem Berry, RB, LSU (2028) ; Caden Durham, RB, LSU (2027) ; Aaron Anderson, WR, LSU (2026) ; Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU (2027) ; Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (2026) ; Jamarion Miller, RB, Alabama (2026) ; Daniel Hill, RB, Alabama (2027) ; Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama (2027) ; Lotzeir Brooks, WR, Alabama (2028) ; Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama (2026) ; Isaiah Horton, WR, Alabama (2026)

Very likely the “Game of the Week” this week pits QBs Garrett Nussmeier and Ty Simpson against each other, each with the ability to raise their stock in the upcoming NFL Draft. For Nussmeier, a player without eligibility and a nearly nonexistent path to the CFB Playoff, this will be one of the last opportunities to make an impression. If Simpson wishes to enter the 2026 NFL Draft, that might be true for him as well, though Simpson will have more post-season opportunities most likely. Simpson has showcased excellent ability to play the QB position, but as someone with very few starts, Simpson is still an incomplete picture.

These teams are also quite similar in how they have matched-up on Offense this year, with the exception of Simpson being able to execute in the difficult situations that Nussmeier has struggled in. But on the ground, both teams have struggled quite a bit this season. LSU has seemingly found something in RB Harlem Berry adding a bit more consistency on the ground the last co