In this episode, I'm speaking with Dr Alan Dupont, who is the founder and CEO of Cognoscenti Group. Alan is a highly respected geopolitical strategist and has advised a wide range of governmental and commercial organisations, including the Northern Territory Government, Asia Society, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and Outcomes Australia.

He has advised several Australian ministers of defence and foreign affairs, and in 2013 established and led the Abbott government's defence white paper team. Alan started his career in government, including as an Army officer, intelligence analyst and diplomat.

In this episode, we take a look at the geopolitical turmoil around the world and its impact on economies and investment markets. We discuss the disintegration of Pax Americana, where the US had the balance of power since the Second World War. And we look at the redistribution of power around the world, including the potential of non-state actors to play a role. We examine US President Trump's use of tariffs and the dollar as financial weapons, and ask the question whether the performance of The Magnificent Seven is related to the tech war between the US, China and Russia.

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Overview of Podcast with Dr. Alan Dupont

 

04:00 Early interest in geopolitics and working with Michael Hinze at CQS

06:00 We are slap bang in the middle of moving from Pax Americana to another system, which is yet to emerge.

08:30 Kondratiev Cycles and why they are important

10:00 Are we moving into the national security era, where security takes primacy over trade and commerce?

13:00 I don’t think we are on the eve of a new world war. Putin is constrained in what he can do.

17:00 The scope of a fruitful relationship with China is limited by the very nature of its system 

20:00 If Australia has to choose between the US or China, then we will get a polarised, deglobalised world and we will have to forfeit a lot of economic benefits from globalisation, which are considerable

21:30 There is a technological and financial war going on

23:00 Trump decided to weaponise the dollar for geopolitical reasons

24:30 Geoeconomics: the use of economic and financial power for geopolitical objectives

28:00 Alan, you called the Iran tensions a few days before the rocket launches happened. What gave you this insight?

32:30 China has its nose in most of the key technologies of the future world. But they are not ahead in the most important one: AI

39:30 Is the technology war part of the reason why the Magnificent Seven have performed so strongly in recent years?

Full Transcription of Episode 117

Wouter Klijn  00:00

Hello and welcome to the i3 podcast: ‘Conversations with Institutional Investors’. My name is Wouter Klijn, and I’m the Editorial Director for the Investment Innovation Institute. For more information about our educational forums for institutional investors, please visit our website at www.i3-invest.com. That’s the letter i and the number three at invest.com. There, you can also subscribe to our complimentary newsletter. I3 insights in which we discuss investment strategy and asset allocation questions with asset owners from around the world. Now, as you all know, we love our disclaimers in this industry, so here’s ours. This recording is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice and is intended for institutional and wholesale investors only. Please enjoy the show 

In this episode, I'm speaking with Dr Alan Dupont, who is the founder and CEO of Cognoscenti Group. Alan is a highly respected geopolitical strategist and has advised a wide range of governmental and commercial organisations, including the Northern Territory Government, Asia Society, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and Outcomes Australia. He has advised several Australian ministers of defence and foreign affairs, and in 2013 established and led the Abbott government's defence white paper team. Alan started his career in government, including as an Army officer, intelligence analyst and diplomat. 

In this episode, we take a look at the geopolitical turmoil around the world and its impact on economies a