The Wait is Over!

It is finally time for the 2023 NFL Season to begin. 

If you listened to the podcast, then you have heard our leans. And, oh man, have we changed some of our thoughts. There are so many opinions from everyone. Our minds are overloaded with so much information (much conflicting) from the expert analysts to wiseguy sharps to even the neighbors. Are we overthinking this? I am sure we are, but we are entered into four sports contests that all have a big payout. 

The 4 football contests we have entered: 

• Circa Survivor 

  
  



• Circa Millions 

  
  



• Westgate Supercontest 

  
  



• Beat the Spread Pigskin Challenge (Snoqualmie Casino) 

  
  

Doing our own research and equations/model, we came up with different picks compared to many experts. But found confirmation from other sharps that our leans were on point. 

Val is still in on the Seattle Seahawks, but it could be more like love-blindness because she is a fan. As a divisional game, laying 5.5 points is a lot. The Rams don’t have the talent they used to have. Cooper Kupp is out in week one, and they will likely not win. Lacking the players the Rams had 1-2 years ago, their hearts may not compensate for their lack of strength. But going to sit this one out and just enjoy the show.   

Still looking at Green Bay to beat Chicago. Chicago has been given a lot of hype. We need to see if they can live up to that hype. We really have no idea about Green Bay, but feel they have a slight edge, so this could be a good pick. 

Steelers getting points at home? That right there is a good reason to consider Pittsburgh. And coach Tomlin has few losses at home in week one. On our podcast, we were all in on the Steelers. But we record the podcast on Mondays, which is too early in the week to finalize our picks in case of any new player information. We are still leaning toward the Steelers to make ATS.

Talking chalk here, how about the Ravens and the Texans? The ATS is a 9.5 and 10-point spread. But the Ravens are always prepared week 1. Many experts are on the Texans, and rightly so, with 10 points. But Texans are, on average, ranked 31 in front of Arizona. There is a new rookie coach, DeMeco Ryans.  New rookie coaches can be a struggle (remember last year, Broncos?). Plus, imagine you are rookie QB C.J. Stroud starting week one in Baltimore against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. That is enough to make anyone crap their pants. 

The Jags and Colts game seems obvious. The Colts have a rookie QB, Anthony Richardson, and a rookie coach, Shane Steichen. Steichen has a lot of experience in the NFL, but he is a new coach, which could have its issues. Even though AR15 is a huge, fast beast, does he have the experience to make the plays? At first glance, the Jags seem the obvious pick. But the public is all over the Jags, and it is a division game. Division games are always tight. So, upon closer look, division game, home dog for week one. it seems a little trappy.

Few thoughts we had about the other games. 

Felt it was wise to stay away from Washington Comanders and AZ. I know everyone is on the Commanders. And the Cardinals are 32 out of 32 in ranking. But we just don’t know enough this early in the season. 

Going to sprinkle a little $ on Detroit’s moneyline. Thursday night's first game, feel like the Lions could upset defending Super Bowl Champs, the Kansas City Chiefs. We still are not sure if Travis Kelce will play. Mahomes and Kelce are a serious force. But his injury might not make him 100%. And if he is out in week one, his backup, Bell, is also really good.  Still early in the season to know really where Lion’s ranking is, but it is fun to go dawg Thursday night. 

While Sports betting is a true skill we are practicing to improve, we are crossing our fingers for a little luck to help us get those ATS/wins. 

2023 Week 1 Circa Survivor Football Contest Pick: 

• Ravens 

  
  

2023 Week 1 ATS Football Contest Picks: 

• Ravens -10 

  
  



• Steelers +2.5 

  
  



• Packers +1 

  
  



• Falcons -3.5

  
  



• Jets +2.5