240: Thinking In Probabilities & Risk
Update: 2025-12-22
Description
Markets rarely behave as predicted by mathematical models, and extreme events occur far more frequently than traditional models anticipate. This episode explains why understanding probabilities, fat tails, and risk is essential for long-term success.
We also explore how traders can build more resilient systems by focusing on recovery time, appropriate position sizing, and avoiding strategies vulnerable to black swan events. Discover why win rate alone can be misleading, and how expected value offers a more realistic framework for navigating uncertainty.
Plus, Kirk shares how his own philosophy has evolved over the years and why automation can help enforce discipline and reduce emotional decision-making.
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