Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is "clearly late" in addressing a commercial real estate nightmare while consumer credit remains quiet, creating a "silent recession" ignored by markets. He warns the "Big Beautiful Bill" will drive inflation higher despite Trump's demands for rate cuts, with Treasury Secretary Bessent's shift to T-bill issuance representing a "last resort before default." Whalen predicts NYC mayoral candidate Mamdani will win and destroy real estate values with rent freezes, while inflation radicalizes politics nationwide. He advocates for gold as central banks abandon dollars, positioning in short-term treasuries and bank preferreds, and warns America needs an Argentina-style "Milei moment" crisis to force real change.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction: Chris Whalen

00:59 Fed is "clearly late" - commercial side is a nightmare

02:31 Fed late but no rate cuts coming soon due to fiscal deficits

04:28 Big beautiful bill will cause higher inflation and long rates

06:48 Silent recession in commercial real estate and private credit

09:18 NYC mayoral race: Mamdani 70% chance, will freeze rents

11:40 Wealthy exodus from NYC unlikely - condos vs. rentals

13:00 Inflation radicalizing Democratic Party politics

14:23 America needs Argentina "Milei moment" when crisis hits

16:13 Bessent switching to T-bills - last resort before default

19:17 Trump mismanaging relationship with Powell

20:45 Bank sector: deflation in lending, lack of credit demand

22:35 Private equity "train wreck" ignored by Fed stress tests

24:10 Dollar decline signals gold returning as reserve asset

25:30 Physical gold vs. ETFs discussion

27:12 Portfolio positioning: gold, bank preferreds, short-term treasuries

29:51 Housing volumes down 20-25%, lock-in effect persists

32:02 Southern overbuilding compressing million-dollar homes

35:20 Warning about market reaction to big beautiful bill