#49 – Author and former chief investment strategist Jim Paulsen on Early-Cycle Signals, Pessimistic Sentiment, and Why This Bull Market May Be Younger Than It Looks (recorded 11/17/25)
Description
In this episode, Jim Paulsen, PhD-trained economist and Paulsen Perspectives author, returns to The Bull of Wall Street to decode one of the strangest economic periods in modern history. Jim explains why this bull market may actually still be in its early stages, how policy has been historically tight beneath the surface, and why easing could unlock a broadening beyond the mega-cap names. He also dives into the misunderstood relationship between AI, productivity, and the future of work, and why the long-term outlook may be more optimistic than headlines suggest.
What you’ll learn:
- Why Main Street sentiment looks like a recession despite rising markets
- How tech’s innovation cycle diverged from the traditional business cycle
- Why Jim believes this bull market behaves like an early-cycle advance
- How policy (rates, M2, yield curve, dollar) has remained too tight for too long
- Why small caps and cyclicals may be set for a catch-up trade
- How AI and productivity shifts could shape future growth
- Why the U.S. has a growth problem, not an inflation problem
- Jim’s long-term optimism for technology, global connectivity, and economic resilience
Chapters:
02:00 – Is this a new bull market? Sentiment, character, and early-cycle signals
06:00 – The sentiment puzzle: Why Main Street feels terrible while markets rise
12:00 – Tech vs. the rest: How the “new era” economy masked an old-economy recession
18:00 – Productivity, profits, and why tech may operate on its own innovation cycle
24:00 – Policy has been historically tight — and how easing could broaden the market
31:00 – Small caps, cyclicals, and the setup for a potential rotation
40:00 – AI: Productivity miracle, job fears, and long-term economic impact
53:00 – Recession fears, the Fed’s dilemma, and why growth—not inflation—is the bigger issue
01:04 – Jim’s long-term optimism: Technology, connection, and the next decade
Guest: Jim Paulsen, Paulson Perspectives
Hosts: Jim Worden (CIO, WCG), Talley Leger (Chief Market Strategist, WCG), & Paisley Nardini (Investment Committee, WCG)
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