The international response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine
remains inadequate to the task of achieving a full victory and often
lags dangerously behind requirements. There is now a fear that the
Western response is even inadequate to maintain an unhealthy status quo,
and that Russia is now making advanced against a depleted and exhausted
Ukraine. Meanwhile Western backers debate the war’s likely endgame and
its aftermath, without a clear sense of how Ukraine’s allies can shape
the outcome. In this context, John Lough of Chatham House has produced a
timely analysis that examines Four scenarios for how the war in Ukraine
will end.
----------

There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine:
‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’ and ‘defeat for
Ukraine’. Regardless of which scenario emerges, the far-reaching and
traumatic sociological, economic and political impacts of the war will
be inescapable.

Chatham House briefing (Updated 21 October 2024)
Published 16 October 2024 (ISBN: 978 1 78413 626 0)

An earlier version of this paper was funded by the Secretary of State’s
Office for Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC) within the UK Ministry
of Defence. This briefing paper was supported in part through a grant
from the Open Society Foundations.
----------

John Lough is an associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at
Chatham House and the Head of International at the New Eurasian
Strategies Centre, a London-based think-tank. He studied German and
Russian at Cambridge University and began his career as an analyst at
the Soviet Studies (later Conflict Studies) Research Centre, focusing on
Soviet/Russian security policy. He spent six years with NATO and was
the first alliance representative to be based in Moscow (1995–98). He
gained direct experience of the Russian oil and gas industry at TNK-BP
as a manager in the company’s international affairs team (2003–08). From
2008 to 2024, he worked in consultancy alongside his role with Chatham
House. He has written extensively on governance and anti-corruption
issues in Ukraine and is the author of Germany’s Russia Problem,
published by Manchester University Press (2021).
----------

LINKS:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/four-scenarios-end-war-ukraine/about-author

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/06/how-end-russias-war-ukraine
https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/john-lough
https://www.highgate.ltd/john-lough
https://x.com/JohnLough
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TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:
Save Ukraine
https://www.saveukraineua.org/

Superhumans - Hospital for war traumas
https://superhumans.com/en/

UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in
Ukraine
https://unbroken.org.ua/

Come Back Alive
https://savelife.in.ua/en/

Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchen
https://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraine

UNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyy
https://u24.gov.ua/

Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation
https://prytulafoundation.org

NGO “Herojam Slava”
https://heroiamslava.org/

kharpp - Reconstruction project supporting communities in Kharkiv and
Przemyśl
https://kharpp.com/

NOR DOG Animal Rescue
https://www.nor-dog.org/home/
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