Bitcoin breaks above $50K for the first time since 2022 and suddenly the market is betting on Bitcoin at $70K by June 2024. Should YOU bet on it? (From the Trading Pit Live Stream Recorded on 2/13)

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In the last few days, Bitcoin shot above $50K and the market updated their expectations, with OTM calls being purchased all the way to $70K, expiring in June. If these positions are unhedged and the market catapults to those levels, expect ATH very, very soon.

But that's a big if...

Fortunately, ETF demand is stronger than anyone anticipated, with all dips turning into buy opportunities. And until ETF volume dies down, don't expect a local top for Bitcoin.

But don't forge to check your macro stats.

Today, the CPI print came in hotter than expected, forcing many to rethink how quickly the fed can pivot from "higher for longer". And this might just lead to a strong dollar. Already above $104, a hot CPI print and longer tight policy could squeeze the dollar even higher, sucking liquidity out of risk assets, like Bitcoin.

For now the likelihood is low. But you need to keep an eye on it.

Back to Bitcoin.

The spot market continues to show fresh inflow buying up Bitcoin while the perpetuals market suggest the carry trade is in full effect (buying spot and hedging with short futures). Now is a challenging time to enter new trades, unless you want to try Options (hint, hint, the CoinCall Degen trade is a winner).

Finally, Ethereum remains the beta to Bitcoin. What's the beta to Ethereum? Every coin on the market that isn't Ethereum. And speculators continue to double down on higher risk assets, expecting a 10x or more during this bear cycle.

Will they be wrong? Stay tuned and find out.

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