How close is the Amazon to a point of no return? In this Atmosphere Commons episode of Voice of Commons, host Giulia Foscari speaks with climatologist Carlos Nobre — IPCC author and co-chair of the Science Panel for the Amazon — as the world races toward COP30 in Belém. Nobre warns that deforestation and global heating are driving the forest toward a tipping point beyond which it could collapse into degraded savannah, flip from carbon sink to carbon source, and weaken the “flying rivers” that sustain continental food and water security. From organised crime, illegal mining, and pandemics to Tropical Forests Forever, Indigenous stewardship, and a standing-forest bioeconomy, this urgent conversation makes clear: saving the Amazon this decade is a precondition for a stable climate.

Carlos Afonso Nobre is a leading Brazilian Earth system scientist specializing in Amazon research and its global impacts. He earned his PhD in Meteorology from MIT and chaired the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). He contributed to several IPCC reports, including the Nobel Peace Prize–winning 2007 report. Nobre served as Brazil’s National Secretary for R&D Policies and as President of CAPES. He co-chairs the Science Panel for the Amazon and directs the Amazonia 4.0 initiative to promote a standing-forest bioeconomy. Carlos was born at 312 parts per million carbon dioxide in the Atmosphere.

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