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CNBC's "Fast Money"Apple Reports Results… And Market Impact From The Fed’s Rate-Cutting Pause 1/30/25
CNBC's "Fast Money"Apple Reports Results… And Market Impact From The Fed’s Rate-Cutting Pause 1/30/25
Apple Reports Results… And Market Impact From The Fed’s Rate-Cutting Pause 1/30/25
Update: 2025-01-30
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Apple on the move as the tech giant reports. The results moving that stock, and the impact on the broader tech space. Plus Stocks ticking higher, as investors digest a rate-cutting pause out of the central bank. What it means for the markets next move, and the chances of any other rate cuts in 2025.
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00:00:00
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00:01:00
Live in a Nasak Market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money.
00:01:09
Here's what's on top tonight. All eyes on Apple taking a light lower in just the last few minutes.
00:01:14
Now at after hours lows, the tech giant missing iPhone revenue estimates seeing a big drop in
00:01:19
China sales. We've got all the details on the numbers and we'll bring you the trade.
00:01:23
And break down or break down to bell weather stocks doing big about faces this week. Are these
00:01:27
moves a change in trend or just a temporary blip? We'll dive into the charts to find out.
00:01:32
Plus, UPS doesn't deliver. Comcast season's worst day since 2008. And an old school tech stock
00:01:38
hits all time highs today. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the Nasak.
00:01:42
On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feynman, Guy Dami, and Michael Contapolis,
00:01:46
director of fixed income at Richard Bernstein advisors. Welcome, Michael.
00:01:50
We start off with Apple results. Big tech giant reporting. It's fiscal first quarter results.
00:01:54
And last half hour shares right now are dead about 1.5%. After a rare miss on iPhone sales,
00:01:59
the company did beat on top and bottom lines, but posted an 11% drop in China revenues.
00:02:05
Apple's conference call started just moments ago. Cmbc's Steve Kovak is at Apple headquarters
00:02:09
with more Steve. Hey, Melissa. Yeah, the big headlines out of here. iPhone sales down,
00:02:15
China sales down. That's despite beats on the top of bottom line. Let me give you some of the numbers
00:02:20
here. And then we'll talk about what all this means. EPS was a beat by five cents at two dollars
00:02:24
and 40 cents revenue a slight beat by a couple hundred million dollars, 124.3 billion dollars there.
00:02:31
iPhone though, this missed expectation 69.14 billion street wanted 71 billion. And by the way,
00:02:38
over sales year over year for the period down about eight tenths of a percent there.
00:02:43
Services though, that is the bright spot. The last several quarters here, up 14% and beating
00:02:48
expectations at 26.34 billion dollars. And then greater China, this is the big one down 11%
00:02:56
year over year to 18 and a half billion dollars. I did get a chance to catch up with Tim Cook on
00:03:02
these Apple earnings and talking a little bit about AI and how that's driving iPhone demand.
00:03:08
That is the big question of course going on in here. Let me tell you what he said. Quote,
00:03:12
we saw that in markets where we had rolled out Apple intelligence that the year over year
00:03:16
performance in the iPhone 16 family was stronger than those where markets where we had not rolled out
00:03:23
Apple intelligence. So basically saying here Apple intelligence at least in the areas where it
00:03:27
was available. That's United States and some limited other countries last year and limited
00:03:32
languages last year. It did outperform where it was not available. And then China of course we
00:03:38
talked about that and what went on there with sales down 11%. He gave me three reasons here. Part of it
00:03:44
is that no Apple intelligence in China, they're waiting for government approval before they could
00:03:50
launch Apple intelligence in that country. That includes partnering with a Chinese AI company,
00:03:55
whether that be Baidu or Alibaba or even DeepSeek to replace the chat sheet BT functionality,
00:04:00
which is banned over there. By the way, they also have to get their own Apple intelligence models
00:04:05
approved as well before they can launch. He also told me they're working with regulators to get
00:04:10
Apple intelligence approved but no updates on progress there. He also in China blamed some
00:04:15
channel inventory problems and government subsidies that went into effect for some electronic
00:04:21
devices this month. It's unclear how that if impacted last quarter, but I'm expecting to hear
00:04:27
more on the call from Tim Cook on that about what really went down in China. We should be getting
00:04:32
some more details in that soon. And then also tariffs. I did ask him about the potential tariffs
00:04:38
from the Trump administration that would impact Apple probably more than any of the big mega cat
00:04:43
tech companies we talk about. He said they're monitoring any potential tariff impacts that would
00:04:50
have on the company, but really declined to comment further whether or not President Trump has
00:04:55
given him any indication that Apple will miss out on tariffs like they did in the last Trump
00:05:00
administration. Like you said, the call is just getting started now. We should be getting some guidance
00:05:05
from the new CFO and also some more commentary on these disappointing China numbers. Right now,
00:05:10
though, you see shares are down about a percent and a half. Those government subsidies that you
00:05:14
mentioned on electronic Steve are is that government subsidies for homegrown brands for domestic brands?
00:05:19
It's unclear. So we're hoping to get more details on that. He did say, I believe he told me
00:05:26
that Apple is involved in that in some way, but we're waiting for more details on that. But this is
00:05:31
again, for this year, not the December quarter we're talking about. So I'm not sure if the implication
00:05:37
here is whether or not people are holding off on their iPhone purchases for these subsidies. We're
00:05:41
going to find out in a few minutes, hopefully Melissa. Okay. Steve, keep us posted. Thank you.
00:05:46
Steve Kovak. A lot of the issues that Stephen mentioned in terms of the weights on the quarter.
00:05:51
We knew, especially the China weights, but China was down 11 percent and maybe that was,
00:05:55
I don't know, worse than expected. What do you make of the quarter? I think that's what people
00:05:59
are probably expecting. I mean, for me, yeah, people will look at China. 4 percent revenue growth,
00:06:04
maybe 7-8 percent EPS growth. Services went the wrong way, in my opinion. We're down about 22 percent
00:06:11
of overall revenue. With that revenue growth, I would have liked it to see better. And then you say
00:06:16
to yourself, you know what, again, understanding this is back. We're looking, the stock just, I think,
00:06:20
just got a little more expensive now. 220 was the level that we held. We actually talked about it on
00:06:24
this show that had been prior support. I think the bounce that we've seen up to 240 probably did it
00:06:29
to disservice into this print. I mean, I don't think you have to run away from it, but it wasn't all
00:06:33
that exciting for me. So we expected weakness in China. This was weaker weakness, more weakness for
00:06:39
sure. So are we near the end of that? Who knows? Probably not. You would think, right? We haven't
00:06:45
even gotten into, I guess, this weekend starts off tariff season, apparently. So we'll, you know,
00:06:51
we'll see. I think that, I was surprised wearables actually didn't do a little better. I thought that
00:06:56
holiday season was good. I would have thought, I mean, it's relatively small portion, but I would
00:07:00
have thought that would have done a little better. So, I mean, to me, nothing's super shocking,
00:07:05
just a little weaker than I thought. And I mean, it leaves me lukewarm on it. No timeline. It
00:07:10
sees me on Apple Intelligence, seems to be very troubling. I mean, it gets so point where,
00:07:15
if people are buying domestic brands with AI features already, what is the time lapse? It has to
00:07:21
happen between the purchase of that, you know, Huawei phone or whatever it is. And then, right,
00:07:25
domestic and China. And the next Apple purchase. I mean, at some point, they're sort of forfeiting
00:07:30
market share just by not having that AI feature. And who knows when those customers would come back,
00:07:37
if they come back at all? Well, I don't think anyone should be surprised by those China numbers.
00:07:42
I mean, we just got fourth quarter numbers in China two weeks ago. Those were down 15% for the
00:07:47
quarter. We know where they've been losing market share, where they're in third place, et cetera,
00:07:52
et cetera. We know that the local administration has been supplying subsidies for low to mid-tier phones.
00:07:57
So, by the way, Apple's not a low to mid-tier phone, so you can make an argument that that really
00:08:01
shouldn't be eating into their market share. But tell me who's even close to Apple everywhere
00:08:06
else in the world, and that includes China 2.0, which is India, at least in terms of a smartphone
00:08:11
market that's, I would say, in its infancy. And you're not going to find one. So, to me, the fact that
00:08:17
the services business was up, you know, better than expected, north of 14% that the margin on that
00:08:22
business, that the ASPs on the phones are selling everywhere else in the world. And by the way,
00:08:26
haven't priced in any AI, these numbers were fine. This wasn't even about the quarter, by the way.
00:08:31
There was nothing in this quarter we expected to be good. And the fact is, I think you got a
00:08:34
better number on services. The biggest issue I have for Apple right now that's not China,
00:08:40
are regulatory dynamics in Europe, which are a big deal when 30% of your app store revenues,
00:08:46
you know, 30% of your services revenues come from the app store. So, that's something to worry about,
00:08:51
but as someone who's long Apple, and, you know, I'm not pounding the table on Apple here,
00:08:56
but you can't tell me there's a lot of good news priced into Apple. This is a stock I want,
00:09:00
I want it because there's zero. And deep sleep, if anything, so...
00:09:02
But if anyone who's in Apple, is there enough bad news priced into Apple?
00:09:05
I don't know. I mean, Apple we've been talking about China for six to nine months in Apple,
00:09:10
and that's related to the handset sales, and some tariffs. I mean, I think the tariff is still an
00:09:14
unknown dynamic, but again, and we know that Apple caught a bit on the day of deep sleep because the
00:09:19
sense is that the efficiency for AI to the smartphone could happen and proliferate faster. So,
00:09:25
I, you know, again, I sometimes I feel like I have to really defend Apple here. I'm sure most
00:09:30
people are long Apple, but it doesn't seem like there's much sentiment in favor.
00:09:35
All fair, and the margins were better. And, you know, I'm going to beat you to a question
00:09:38
you typically ask. Which is what? What do you want to hear from... What's your first question on the
00:09:41
conference? On conference call. What is your first question? Free cash flow miss. I think the street
00:09:45
was like 36 billion, it came into 27 or so, and again, I'm just trying to do the math, which I can't
00:09:50
do that quickly, but, you know, where did that come from? But, you know, Tim's point, we've been
00:09:54
talking about potential weakness in China for quite some time. The flip side of that coin is, though,
00:09:59
this was supposed to be, and maybe it's going to be a couple quarters, you know, the big upgrade cycle,
00:10:03
vis-a-vis AI and those things. I mean, for these numbers suggests that they didn't come to fruition.
00:10:08
You know, the tariffs that there is softer retaliation in terms of the response from Beijing,
00:10:12
may not be tariffs, it may be, hey Apple, you can't have your AI partner here, and you're just
00:10:19
going to have to wait, and you will wait long enough, so all those people who want to buy AI
00:10:22
handsets will go and buy a domestic handset instead. And you're just going to have to wait until all
00:10:27
those people want to upgrade, and then maybe you'll get a shot at getting them back. I mean, that's,
00:10:31
you know, in the scheme of tariffs, that's the realm that's sort of unquantifiable, right?
00:10:36
It's sort of the, how do we get you back without hitting you with an actual tariff?
00:10:40
Yeah, I mean, I think that's absolutely right. And what we've seen from President Trump in the past
00:10:44
is that, you know, that unpredictability can really sort of, you know, move markets and move sentiment.
00:10:49
And, you know, I'd expect more of this throughout the year, and we saw it today with,
00:10:52
I'm maybe we'll talk about in a bit, I saw it with Canada and Mexico too. And, you know,
00:10:56
it's that uncertainty, I think, that could leave a bit of an overhang in certain parts of the
00:11:00
market that are exposed to, you know, tariff retaliation. For more and Apple's quarter,
00:11:04
let's bring in fast money friend. Jean Munster, he is also an Apple shareholder. Jean, what did you
00:11:10
make of the quarter? Melissa, there's some challenges that I wasn't anticipating. And as Tim said,
00:11:16
that the street was widely aware that the China number was going to be soft. But if you factor in
00:11:22
what happened in China and look at what happened in the rest of the world, that was a mistwo. And so,
00:11:26
I was expecting rest of the world to be up 4%. It was up about 1%. And I just kind of want to
00:11:33
drill into that for one piece is I've been bullish on what Apple intelligence could do back in September.
00:11:38
My optimism has slowed slightly as the rollout has been slowed. But I have remained optimistic that
00:11:46
Apple can beat their iPhone numbers based on this huge upgrade pool from 2021. That's the year
00:11:52
where iPhone grew at 35%. And the December quarter is the first quarter where we start to see the real
00:11:58
fruits of that upgrade cycle coming from a few years ago. And so, I was expecting the rest of the
00:12:03
world, even without Apple intelligence to kind of power this higher. So, that was one piece that stuck
00:12:08
out to me. And then I want to highlight something else that you said, Melissa, on this tear of some
00:12:12
potentially restricting Apple with a partner to do AI, to put it in a perspective, Huawei's business,
00:12:19
and it was up 15% in the quarter. And so, Apple, China business, iPhone was probably down 12 to
00:12:24
13%. And so, what that tells us is, maybe it's because Huawei has the Cecilia assistant that
00:12:32
is an AI assistant that's gaining traction. But there's also kind of a question of, is there a
00:12:39
little bit of a shift in terms of how Chinese consumers are viewing these Western brands,
00:12:45
have put Samsung in the Western category, they struggled too. All of the other non-Chinese brands
00:12:51
were down in the quarter. Some of those have AI assistants. And so, that was the bad news. And,
00:12:56
Melissa, it's only fair for me to point out the good news, because I'm a shareholder, and I do believe
00:13:00
where this company is going, is Tim Cook said on the call that their active install base was up,
00:13:06
he gave the math, back into math, was up 7% year of year to 2.35 billion active devices. That's
00:13:13
impressive. I mean, to grow that number at that rate, it's testimony that despite any sort of
00:13:19
variance and what's going on with the iPhone in any given quarter, the fabric of that flywheel
00:13:24
and their customers remain loyal, which I think ultimately is going to be something that Apple
00:13:28
investors are going to take some confidence into tonight as they think about these numbers.
00:13:33
You know, Jean, going into the numbers, there had been sort of a drum beat of downward revisions,
00:13:40
re-rating Apple lower, there's been a couple of downgrades, price targets being lowered,
00:13:45
estimates being lowered, et cetera. And I'm just wondering if you think Apple, given the quarter
00:13:49
that it just printed, granted we don't have the guidance yet, maybe we should factor in a much
00:13:55
slower iPhone trajectory in here. And so, if we're going to say that iPhone growth is going to be,
00:14:01
I don't know, 1% or whatever it is year on year from now on, what is that multiple that Apple
00:14:06
is worth? And can services make up for that? Well, I think just first on iPhone, expect that the
00:14:14
iPhone guide is probably going to be below where the streets at for March, just given what they
00:14:18
reported. And that kind of sets up iPhone for the full year, the streets looking for around 3% growth,
00:14:23
for it probably to be kind of around that 1%. And then like your point is, what's the right
00:14:28
multiple on this when you put services into this? And at the end of the day, I still come back
00:14:32
to this belief that this is a consumer staple company. We saw that active install base. This
00:14:37
should have comfortably a multiple on the out year numbers that would be calendar 26, somewhere
00:14:43
in the 25 to to low 30s number. I mean, yeah, go back to the, we've talked a lot in the past,
00:14:48
the Coke, the Chlorox, Procter and Gamble, those types of companies have those kind of multiples,
00:14:53
even though they don't grow. I think Apple is that kind of staples company and does have upside
00:14:58
to it relative to some of these things with Apple intelligence. Apple intelligence is going to have
00:15:03
an impact. Steve Colback reported that from Cook. It's going to have an impact. It's going to take
00:15:07
longer than what I hoped. A lot of people hoped. It's probably 26. But as you play this forward,
00:15:12
think about the Apple investor now. We're seeing downward revisions to numbers. But then you start
00:15:17
looking out over the next several quarters. You should start to see accelerating revenue growth
00:15:21
off of that. All right. Jean, thank you. Let us know if you hear anything from the conference call.
00:15:26
We'll do. So how do you look at the picture now? Grants, we don't have guidance yet.
00:15:32
Right. Well, I like to, this is why I always say you've got to listen to the call. I want to hear
00:15:35
the body language and you want to hear also the questions are really important. The point you
00:15:41
brought up, I think, is a really important one. Jean's attention, so haven't went to Huawei. That
00:15:46
was really pretty good growth. And Apple was the reverse, the mirror image. Is that a customer
00:15:52
lost forever? That was your point, sort of leaving the ecosystem, right? And then how does that figure
00:15:57
into the multiple of going forward? What does he just bought a Huawei phone? Are you going to buy
00:16:02
another phone? You might have that phone for three years or however long it is. And then you might
00:16:05
be in the Huawei ecosystem. Right. Right. So I don't know. What I hear about that.
00:16:10
Yeah, but again, I think we know that share losses in China are going to continue. The question
00:16:15
is, are we worried about share loss anywhere else in the world than China? And if we're not,
00:16:20
this is an ASP story. This is a margin story. I just, again, I don't think you've priced a whole
00:16:26
lot in. And remember, also, this stock, when it broke out from around $195 to the current range,
00:16:32
it had done nothing in two years. The stock has done nothing for a long time. That's not a reason
00:16:36
to go buy a stock, except for the fact that if you think about where we've been in the world of
00:16:39
technology and innovation and efficiency, and this stock has not participated.
00:16:43
You know, we don't cover individual stocks at RBA, but I did find something that Jean mentioned
00:16:48
super interesting in that he views Apple's consumer staple. Look what happened in 2022. 2022
00:16:54
Apple is down something like 27%. And the broader tech sector got completely hammered.
00:16:58
Staples were not. Staples did quite well. These are technology companies. They're cyclical. And
00:17:03
they're also going to follow the global cycle. And if the global cycle slows, that's just something,
00:17:08
you know, I think investors should pay attention to. Not saying that it will. Right.
00:17:11
But Huawei's assistant, Celia, who does that make you think about? Celia. Celia. Well,
00:17:17
it's Celia. You're breaking my heart. You're breaking my heart. And for people that are long
00:17:20
right now, a little heartbroken, but not all that much. That's a, it's a Paul Simon song.
00:17:25
I think it's a Simon. That's not what Paul did by himself. But let's let our bet.
00:17:30
Anyway, do you have anything else to add? I have a lot to add.
00:17:33
No, the free cash flow thing. I mean, I wonder if it comes up. And it's evaluate. I mean, Tim says
00:17:37
that it's a valuation story. What are you willing to pay? And again, services gives them a
00:17:41
premium valuation, but it's funny. And we've said this a hundred times. When this was a growth
00:17:45
company a decade or so ago, it was trading with a 12 13 multiple. Now that it's a basically become,
00:17:51
I don't know, value company. It should trades it a pretty expensive multiple. So something's
00:17:55
a bit of skew here. Meantime, President Trump announcing that he will decide tonight whether
00:18:00
or not to impose oil tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Megan Casela has got the details. Megan.
00:18:05
Melissa, that's right. Those tariffs a little up in the air. But some others firming up this afternoon,
00:18:10
President Trump formally announcing he'll be putting 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico this Saturday.
00:18:16
He had threatened these last week, but there had been some expectation that if the two countries
00:18:20
took action to tighten their borders and stem the flow of fentanyl that the tariffs could be avoided.
00:18:26
But Trump being firmer now saying that he's taking action not only because of immigration
00:18:30
and the flow of fentanyl, but also because of trade deficits. I'll be putting the
00:18:37
tariff of 25% on Canada and separately 25% on Mexico. And we will really have to do that because
00:18:45
we have very big deficits with those countries. Those tariffs may or may not rise with time.
00:18:51
Now, Trump was also asked whether oil specifically would be included in the tariffs and he said maybe.
00:18:57
He said he would decide probably tonight on that point. And he also seemed to downplay the
00:19:02
impact of the tariffs, saying that the U.S. has all the oil in the lumber that it needs. So this is
00:19:07
the clearest language that we've seen yet from him on these tariffs. We do still have about 48 hours
00:19:13
until they would take effect. So a little bit of time left to wait and see if anything changes. Melissa.
00:19:18
All right. Megan, thank you. Megan Casela. We may have enough lumber. We may have enough oil with
00:19:24
there plenty of other things that we get from Canada and Mexico. In fact, Cardinal Health CEO on his
00:19:28
conference call today was talking about the impact of tariffs on that company. That is a health
00:19:32
care, health services, health products company. There are impacts far and wide that we're not even
00:19:37
thinking that's not just oil and gas here. Right. And the near-shoring that so many industrial
00:19:41
companies in the United States have taken part of in Mexico, I think they're not going to be thrilled
00:19:45
about this. So the analysts are already coming out and trying to, what is the impact of, you know,
00:19:50
I saw UBS report that said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico equals 80 basis points drag on GDP.
00:19:57
But not a terrible increase in inflation, in fact, they say, on an annual basis, 10 votes.
00:20:02
What do you think? Yeah, I mean, I think it can't be underappreciated the amount of inputs that
00:20:06
come in from Mexico into the U.S. to build stuff, right? And so it really does bite quite a bit.
00:20:12
It will not help the jobs market in the U.S. and don't forget the agricultural aspect as well.
00:20:18
We do a lot of agricultural trade with Mexico. This is just the beginning. And even though
00:20:24
this specific announcement might not be broadly inflationary, the general tariff tone,
00:20:30
and where that's going, likely is not going to help inflation get back down to target.
00:20:36
You know, there's this lens of either winning or losing. And if you see a deficit, it assumes
00:20:41
that we must be losing. But all it really means is we're just, they're good, they're goods
00:20:47
are attractive for our economy and for our consumers. It's not a win or a loss. That's just the way
00:20:52
the economy works. So I think if you look at it through that lens, it makes a lot more sense,
00:20:57
but these tariffs to your point, I don't think people really fully realize the ramifications.
00:21:03
Yeah, to that point, what are they going to do back? And who is that going to hurt, right?
00:21:07
So we sell vehicles, whatever to Canada, right? I don't know what you do if you're Canada. Do you
00:21:13
what do you tip for Tat or do you try to sort it out? So you know, it's an interesting question.
00:21:19
Well, we, you know, we have a lot of great Canadian hockey players here in New York. Some of them
00:21:23
not playing as well as they probably should be that interesting. Coming up, we'll keep an eye on
00:21:30
athletes shares, bring you all the headlines in the conference call as they come in. And we've
00:21:33
got more earnings action to bring you in the meantime. Shares of Intel on the move after reporting
00:21:37
results and numbers out of that one next and speaking of earnings, IBM, Caterpillar and Comcast,
00:21:42
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Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got a little bit of a turnaround in Apple shares in the after
00:23:33
recession on the conference called the company just giving out guidance for its fiscal second quarter
00:23:38
current quarter saying it's going to be in line with what the street was estimating so we're
00:23:42
up about 3% right now. Meantime and earnings alert out of Intel shares higher after hours
00:23:48
despite the company issuing weak guidance. CNBC's Christina Parcinellis has got the latest
00:23:52
Christina still no word on a permanent CEO though. No, it's progressing but they've told many
00:23:56
analysts before it's going to take about four to six months so that's as a last month so who knows
00:24:00
in the next three months or so. They set on the call right now that it's underway. We cannot be all
00:24:05
things to all people and more specifically they admitted they're not yet participating in the cloud
00:24:10
AI data center market in a meaningful way. So much so that they were supposed to launch this
00:24:15
Falcon Shored GPU, their own GPU and they just announced that they're simplifying things
00:24:20
and they are no longer bringing that particular chip to market. It was interesting to the co-CEI.
00:24:25
I was able to chat with both of them in the three o'clock hour just about the fact that the Q1
00:24:29
guide was light. They blame seasonality. They also said that a lot of the purchases were pushed forward
00:24:33
into Q4 because of tariff concerns. But the other thing is margins. Margin's taking hit a little bit
00:24:39
lower than expected for Q1 and they said that what they're doing is they're taking parts for their
00:24:44
chips like memory and then taking it from the vendor and literally selling it at cost. So they're
00:24:48
really not making much money on those chips and they're planning on doing that for the entire year.
00:24:52
I guess in a way to stay competitive and so that's why margins will stay a lower until they wrap
00:24:57
into 2026 and then of course the Foundry Business is still part of the equation.
00:25:02
$4.5 billion but they spent a lot on it and they anticipate that still to grow and it's
00:25:09
no word yet if anything's going to change in that environment. What is the interpretation of them
00:25:13
not pursuing to market that Falcon chip? I mean it would seem like it's a good thing if they know
00:25:18
they can't win that battle why go ahead with that chip? I think that is a reflection of maybe the
00:25:23
criticism around Pat Galsinger and the CEO who has stepped down that maybe he over committed and
00:25:27
tried to do too much you know there was five four nodes in five years or five nodes in four years.
00:25:32
All of these promises and it was interesting that on the call the co-CEO Michelle she even said
00:25:36
I am she's not over committing she used those words and so I thought that was kind of a maybe
00:25:41
I'm interpreting as a dig or anything like that but that could be why they're showing like look
00:25:46
we're going to get rid of a few products here and we're going to focus on our 18A which is more
00:25:50
than AI related chip and more advanced nodes and the Foundry Business. Well so the Foundry Business
00:25:55
exactly is a place where they should be focused or at least seems like people want to throw money
00:26:00
at them in this government. So what's happening with that and can you make some assessment I don't
00:26:04
know if these numbers are really available yet if you've gone through but balance wise I mean the
00:26:08
sense is this is a company that actually I mean they've been cutting staff they've been it's almost
00:26:12
like you're worried about free cash loan away that is this company's balance sheet and periled but
00:26:17
all the Foundry Business that we want in this country and we want for Intel costs a lot of money
00:26:23
and takes time right and to your points they laid off a lot of people the packages and stuff like that
00:26:27
the cash flow is still pretty strong I don't have the exact number with me right now for the Foundry
00:26:31
Business on the call they the cocio said that they have a strong pipeline of customers I asked
00:26:36
specifically names of customers they went they don't provide that so it appears like things are
00:26:41
still rolling ahead but when you try to get names or any word about you know there's been rumors
00:26:46
about buyouts there's been all kinds of stuff going on with this company and I think that's
00:26:50
on a good position when even at that you don't even have a CEO going forward so how could you
00:26:55
streamline and focus when the CEO is going to take it and change things around possibly Christina thank
00:27:00
you Christina parts of Neville is Stacy Raskan of Bernstein noted chip analyst said earlier today
00:27:07
that it almost doesn't matter what they say in the quarter all we want to know is who's going to
00:27:12
be the CEO yeah like all the numbers are nice but that's not what really matters yeah this quarter though
00:27:18
by Intel standards is a huge win I think and the people say the guy it's not great you know what the
00:27:22
guy it's not great but you know that quarter alone speaks to the cost kind of the time that Christina
00:27:27
were just talking about and it's seemingly working so when this stock no longer goes down the bad news
00:27:32
is still not you know it's still not bad but it's getting a little less bad as Tim says this
00:27:37
should have been the eye in somebody's acronym this year I think quite a bit I thought it's like
00:27:40
I think it is I think Dan's got it oh and Jennie I think Jennie oh does he right you're right you're
00:27:46
right he should stuff that in there all right all right me and time UPS sinking 14% for its worst day
00:27:53
ever the company saying that it's plenty to cut deliveries for its largest customer Amazon by
00:27:57
more than half in turn taking a bite out of revenue going forward listen to what UPS CEO Carol
00:28:02
Tomay told CNBC about that Amazon partnership we knew if we didn't take action it would have
00:28:09
diminishing returns what that means in terms of the guidance is simply this in the United States
00:28:16
our volume will decline in 20 20 25 by eight and a half percent our revenues will decline by about
00:28:24
2 percent but our profit will increase by 14 and a half percent she actually said Amazon is
00:28:32
the largest customer but it is the least profitable customer so that's the reason behind it Karen
00:28:37
why did you make it the quarter well I'm not well it's more the Amazon going forward think that it was
00:28:41
the so obviously each talks about it is a huge customer low margin business and sort of dismantling
00:28:48
some of the infrastructure that they have made to handle the Amazon business I'd never like shrinking
00:28:53
in a right in a in a business that well it's never good in general I understand why they're
00:29:02
trying to do it but it's still not a good thing that this is business it's low margin but you do want
00:29:09
more revenue okay we do want to get back to Steve Kovak we're getting some more color from Apple's
00:29:13
conference call Steve what's the latest hey there Melissa yeah look at shares of Apple they've
00:29:19
turned around they're up through in a half percent now after being down one and a half percent when
00:29:22
the call started this is being from guidance from Apple CFO talking about despite some foreign
00:29:28
exchange headwinds we all know the dollars getting stronger they do expect to see March quarter revenue
00:29:34
grow again in the low to mid single digits also saying for the services segment will grow in the
00:29:41
low double digits a year over year that's pretty much in line on the services front from what we've
00:29:45
been seeing for the last several quarters they are expecting though an FX headwind of about two
00:29:50
on revenue of about two and a half percent compared to the year ago quarter we see shares
00:29:55
going up even more here now in this up four percent now Melissa all right Steve thank you Steve Kovak
00:30:01
yeah Apple shares up more than four percent right now we'll keep you posted on that conference call
00:30:05
which is ongoing there's a lot more to fast money to come here let's come up next the major
00:30:11
averages may be muted today but a couple names seeing big moves the headlines behind the action
00:30:17
in Comcast IBM and more next and speaking of big moves a coffee chain brews higher and a chip
00:30:26
giant gets crunched the recent moves in Starbucks and in video and what the charts are saying about
00:30:33
any potential breakouts or breakdowns you're watching fast money live from the Nasdaq market site
00:30:40
in Times Square we're back right after this
00:30:48
what's at stake when administration's change from the first 100 days and beyond
00:30:54
EY brings insights on the issues that matter executive orders regulation of AI the fate of
00:31:00
billions in tax credit global trade and workforce stability no matter the policy shifts EY helps
00:31:06
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00:31:12
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00:31:46
welcome back to fast money a couple of earnings movers today shares of IBM jumping nearly 13
00:31:54
percent after earnings report last night shares closing at a record high caterpillar falling
00:31:59
nearly 5 percent on weaker than expected revenues and shares of comcast dropping 11 percent after
00:32:05
reporting a decline in broadband and cable TV customers it was a stocks worst day since October
00:32:11
2008 in some after hours movers here decars outdoors dropping despite beating EPS and revenue
00:32:17
expectations the company reporting full year revenue guidance just below analysts estimates shares
00:32:22
of wall green's dropping after hours the pharmacy chain announcing it is suspending it's quarterly
00:32:26
dividend that stock is down 6.6 percent Karen pick one or wall green's I don't know you can
00:32:33
want to just I just I mean do you know what was happening October of 08
00:32:37
yeah yeah right that really the world is falling apart the world was falling apart right and it's the
00:32:43
same decline yes so that's not ideal yeah there was a not a lot to like in that wall greens good for
00:32:50
them for suspending the dividend they get they they can't afford to pay it so the stock will be
00:32:54
down but it has to be I hate these gap hires like IBM so but so it probably does back and fill but
00:33:01
even with that you got to be you got to admire what they've done over the last couple of years
00:33:06
and valuation despite this move me and maybe it's a little stretch but it's not completely
00:33:10
ridiculous so good for IBM coming up to big names making big moves this week what the
00:33:14
technicals are saying about the recent pop and drop in Starbucks and Nvidia we're diving into the
00:33:19
charts on fast money returns back and two missed a moment of fast catches any time on the go
00:33:28
follow the fast money podcast we're back right after this
00:33:42
welcome back to fast money Nvidia and Starbucks so far having very different start to the year the
00:33:47
long struggling coffee chain which hit two year lows in July already up nearly 20% in 2025 hitting
00:33:53
its highest levels in May 2023 today meantime Nvidia who shares rose triple digits for two years
00:33:59
running is trading your October lows for a closer look at where these two names are headed next
00:34:03
let's go off the charts with blue chip daily trend report founder and chief technical strategist
00:34:08
Larry Tensorelli Larry great to have you with us what do you see in these two names how how
00:34:13
stronger these trends so Starbucks is really picking up it looks very good it broke out this week
00:34:19
after earnings and it closed today at 20 month highs so it's got a very bullish move underway
00:34:26
Nvidia is a little bit trickier right now why well Nvidia started to break down it had a big high
00:34:34
volume breakdown on Monday it closed below the 200 day moving average for the first time in about
00:34:40
two years and it does have quite a few bearish trend signals right now so Nvidia is much more cautionary
00:34:46
are there levels that you're watching that could you know mean that Nvidia is headed lower
00:34:52
levels that it would have to break in order to head lower sure 115 is the key level right here
00:34:58
so 130 was prior support it went through that pretty quickly on Monday so right now 115
00:35:05
is really the last line of support so we're holding above that right now about 124 but if 115
00:35:13
breaks it probably brings 100 into range and then for Starbucks what level do you want to see in order
00:35:20
to confirm that it is actually a breakout so I'd want to see it hold over 100 if there's any
00:35:27
pullbacks it's had a big breakout this week 116 is the next key overhead level so if it can clear
00:35:35
116 that should set us up for new highs but it's a very bullish chart right now and as long as it
00:35:42
stays over 100 I'd stay on the long side all right Larry great to have you with us thank you Larry
00:35:48
Tentarelli it's very symmetrical here 115 on the downside for Nvidia for a breakdown 116 to the
00:35:53
upside Starbucks for break out here where do you stand on well Tim has been bullish in Starbucks a
00:35:59
lot I'm talking it broke up for your downtrend then Nvidia we talked about this go back to last
00:36:03
March and golfing pattern stock went down 28% happened in June went down 35% same thing happened
00:36:09
the day after earnings winner made an all time high 153 and changed closed lower and it's been
00:36:13
going lower effectively ever since so today was a good day closed higher I get it but it's under
00:36:18
pressure for sure I think with Starbucks part of the excitement here is this is the first
00:36:23
quarter where actually you could actually put a little bit of Brian Nichol fingerprints on this
00:36:27
certainly the messaging in terms of what they're going to do and what they're not going to do they're
00:36:30
not going to get the house away there's something going to clean up the house it's going to be that
00:36:33
that third place again I just think you get back to the multiple on the company if you take the
00:36:38
lower end of the range it's been the range over the last five to seven years and you put you know
00:36:42
the number of most people the street has somewhere around four bucks a share I mean this is a pretty
00:36:46
interesting story I think this is a story that actually gets you you know you you can make an
00:36:50
argument for 120 bucks on the stock by 26 but let's let's wait and see where margins go this has
00:36:55
been part of the story that needed to improve right in the backdrop to to the Starbucks story in
00:36:59
terms of the economic picture is actually a pretty good one you're you were saying that the economy
00:37:03
is much stronger than people appreciate so we actually even though they're they're saying that
00:37:07
they have pricing pressures and consumers are are worried consumers are actually in very good shape
00:37:11
yeah consumers are in great shape and the unemployment is low we saw jobless claims today be
00:37:15
and we're quite good consumption was very strong as part of gdp so the consumer is really rocking you
00:37:22
know there's no real can you speak from channel checks money chance we joke because Michael is a
00:37:27
proprietor of a coffee shop too what are they named what are they holding it for god sunshine coffee
00:37:34
roasters that's right that's right that's right it listen and and you know what's good for Starbucks
00:37:38
tends to be good for the industry and there are R&D so not so bad yeah I miss I mean kudos
00:37:45
to you I just thought that Brian Nichols the day he was announced and the stock was up so huge
00:37:51
that it would be so hard to overcome that anyhow so good for him coming up trading and the lap
00:37:56
of luxury is the high-end retail space about to see a rebound the names that could see a lavish
00:38:01
leaf ahead plus shares of visa on the move after the latest report report the details and the numbers
00:38:06
in that water would fast money return welcome back to fast money it's been a rough ride for luxury
00:38:25
retailers in the past year elvia mage burberry and caring among the biggest declineers all down
00:38:30
double digits but some analysts are betting the group can make a big comeback in 2025
00:38:34
same bc's wealth editor Robert frank aka mr. paterson it's always great to have you here good good to
00:38:43
see you mel a lot of optimism is right now luxury hspc saying today this is the end of the downturn
00:38:48
and the start of the upgrade cycle for luxury and the american wealthy are the main drivers luxury
00:38:54
companies say us sales soared right after the election elvia mage reporting this week a slight
00:38:59
increase in revenue that stock gaining some ground a little bit today after that big decline on
00:39:04
Tuesday burberry and reshmond both beating on sales and lifting the sector jewelry right now is
00:39:10
the shining the brightest right after the election there was a clear winner and i think it brings
00:39:17
clarity and and probably a greater consumer confidence which we need to we need that feel good
00:39:23
factor to succeed in the luxury world now one concern as we've all been talking about is tariffs
00:39:29
although lvmhceo is telling me us consumers because they're so wealthy and they travel might just
00:39:34
buy their bling in europe we have the opportunity to cater to clients that are basically across the world
00:39:42
and travel across the world as well so if they buy a piece in the u.s. or they buy a piece in europe
00:39:47
it's the same for us so one of the reasons europe is so strong right now for elvie mage and others
00:39:51
is that it's the americans that are traveling there and buying goods there so that's lifting
00:39:58
your so that's add that on to the u.s. sales and you get the americans replacing the chinese as
00:40:04
the big drivers of luxury now the question is how long can that continue and will china ever come
00:40:10
back even close to where it was before that's what's going to be the decide on whether these stocks
00:40:14
can really gain ground from here well you're just talking about the reduction in the Shanghai
00:40:19
flagship location is being a terrible indicator of of of their forecast for china yes because i
00:40:26
think of our know is such a long-term investor and so you know we're in a tough spot now in china but
00:40:32
he has that you know that prime real estate is difficult to get it is and so too i don't know if
00:40:37
they've kept the real estate but not built the built the store but do you think though when you
00:40:42
look at like a burberry which is a difference in a turnaround yeah versus a rich man which just
00:40:47
put up very very good numbers does that seem like more potential upside because there was so much
00:40:53
down if you had told me a month ago that burberry would outshine elvia mage on earnings i'd been like
00:40:59
no way but that there were those expectations were so low for burberry and so high for elvia mage so
00:41:06
i think there are a lot of questions about whether burberry's price point which is very high
00:41:10
can be maintained but elvia mage you know there's a lot of optimism especially in watches and jewelry
00:41:16
mel you mentioned in china there's a lot of hope now at least in china that the chinese are
00:41:22
buying homegrown brands more and so the question they're even making luxury watches which people didn't
00:41:27
expect so that's a big threat to the Swiss watch industry and so the question is even if spending
00:41:33
comes back in china will it go to local brands or these european brands what are the names of some
00:41:38
of the local i'm just curious i don't even know but i'm told by the Swiss watch they're making very good
00:41:43
roll it not Rolex rip-offs they don't look exact but they're very high quality luxury watches and
00:41:49
that's a threat Robert great to see you thank you guys thank you all i see you have some man awesome
00:41:54
good looking too much better guys than any of you guys all your guys not much i mean the bar is kind of low but
00:42:00
you could put elvmh in your band and make it bland i look i might have to because based upon last year
00:42:09
i need all the help i can get i i will say something as we talk about the impact of china on
00:42:13
luxury you look at the the charts and you layer china a chart of china or chinese equities over
00:42:18
elvmh or burry they all look very similar and i mean a 20-year chart so the question is is the
00:42:23
demise of china something that's a little bit more of a headwind than cyclicality coming up the
00:42:28
Arnie's keep rolling in shares a visa on the move after reporting results of details and numbers
00:42:32
out of the quarter next more fast money into
00:42:46
we've got a new alert on vertex the fda approving it's non opioid treatment for moderate to severe
00:42:51
acute pain shares are currently just up or 10th of a percent we got another earnings alert here
00:42:58
visa reporting better than expected quarterly results shares are higher after hour cmbc thank you
00:43:02
reporter hewson that's got the latest hey you that's right Melissa visa reporting a beat on both the
00:43:07
top and bottom lines today as global payments growth improve from the previous quarter the
00:43:10
companies total total payments volumes jumped 9% in the period compared to the 8% rate of the previous
00:43:15
quarter visa also issued new 2025 guidance saying that both revenue and eps growth will be
00:43:20
better than previously stated eps for the year will rise by low teens percentage rate compared to
00:43:25
previous guidance of a low double digit increase as we've seen from amics and mastercard resulted
00:43:30
credit card giant shows signs of a still healthy consumer with spending volumes picking up at the
00:43:34
end of last year that trend is continued so far this month with vcfo chrissa saying that payments
00:43:39
volumes were put off to a strong start back to you all right you thank you hewson of course
00:43:45
mastercard shares in today's session hitting a record high of a very strong quarter cross-border
00:43:50
volume up 20% just to Robert's point right yeah exactly strong dollar and buying their
00:43:56
purse is in Europe there you go up 20% cross-border what do you make of the payment space i think bet
00:44:01
against these companies at your peril i think they're going higher i think the multiples that they
00:44:06
look there's cyclicality here but your long-term trend again pull up a 20-year chart on visa
00:44:11
and you're going to be shocked at what's gone on here the multiple does matter the cyclicality
00:44:15
does matter but it's securely there where they need to be and i think that's their slogan transaction
00:44:20
processing i mean pull up a chart seems right i mean this is lower left upper right couple pullbacks
00:44:24
along the way yeah valuation gets stretched but they seem to grow into it every single year you
00:44:29
stay long mastercard visa up next final trades
00:44:41
welcome back to fast money let's take another check on shares of apple up by 2.8% so giving up a
00:44:53
little bit of its after hours gains a conference call just wrapped up deep water gene monster is back
00:44:58
so gene what where the highlights Melissa three takeaways first is the December quarter wasn't as bad
00:45:04
as it looked because they lit the chimney down some of the inventory levels that had a negative
00:45:09
impact on the results and they basically moved those over in a march and so that's why you had
00:45:13
that more favorable march guide second is that the march guide does not include any new regions with
00:45:19
apple intelligence which they said had a positive impact in the December quarter where it was
00:45:23
available and the third piece is the cook said that there were his comment was lots of devices sold
00:45:29
during covid and that is an opportunity to upgrade in the quarters ahead so overall my sense is
00:45:36
it just wasn't nearly as bad as it looked just a reminder that there's there's some fluidity
00:45:40
between quarters but the trend remains positive gene thank you gene monster deep water it is time
00:45:47
for the final tray let's go around the horn Tim Seymour UPS you don't need to go out and buy this one
00:45:53
today but if you think about a company that's really found a way to think about their margins and turn
00:45:58
it around this has been a two-year downtrend that I think you start to nibble at Karen yes gap
00:46:03
gap stores I like the turnaround we're not going to see the results until early March but long
00:46:08
here I think it's good value Michael can tap less of RBA economic growth is strong and we think
00:46:13
it's going to continue to performance it's going to continue to broaden we like small mid cap stock
00:46:18
thank you for joining us thank you great to have you and the break I learned at dark roast
00:46:23
this is revolutionary really is important this is the more you know kind of thing yeah it's actually
00:46:28
weaker coffee than the blonde roast you learn that from Michael thank you Michael
00:46:33
Michael Agnico Eagle months thank you for watching fast 20 see you back here tomorrow at five
00:46:37
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CNBC dot com forward slash fast money disclaimer file your taxes the free and easy way with turbo
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