Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news analysts are now starting to estimate the costs to the US economy of some upcoming tariff policy.

But first, the S&P Global American services PMI rose in December to its strongest expansion since March 2022. But their manufacturing downturn deepened with manufacturers reporting falling output and higher prices. New factory orders fell sharply, extending the decline to a sixth consecutive month. The divergence makes the services sector jump look like a sugar-rush, one that could come with a hangover.

The December factory survey in the New York region reflects the factory pullback - although that is from an unusually strong November.

A New York Fed study of whether large tariff hikes protect US firms has found the opposite in a detailed survey. This is no surprise to economists, and they suggest that the next round is also likely to hurt American firms further. Further own-goals for American manufacturing are on their way. Others say it will shrink US GDP by -1%. That would be a US$300 bln hit.

North of the border, Canadian housing starts came in particularly strong in November, and surprisingly so.

And Canadian house prices are on an extended uptrend, boosted by more sales activity as interest rates come down there.

But in a surprise political move in Canada, their Finance Minister has suddenly resigned, "throwing its economic agenda into a tailspin". Disagreement on how to frame Canada's policies when Trump comes to power in the US seems to be at the heart of the matter.

Across the Pacific in Japan, their November PMIs revealed that their factory sector is now barely contracting (an improvement from October), and their services sector is now expanding faster. They had their strongest rise in private sector activity in the past three months. So perhaps it is no surprise to know that machinery orders are on the rise, after a lean period.

China’s new house prices in 70 cities shrank by -5.7% year-on-year in November, following the steepest decline in over nine years of 5.9% in the previous month. This marked the 17th consecutive month of decreases, suggesting that Beijing’s extended attempts to mitigate the prolonged downturn in the property sector, such as reducing mortgage rates and slashing home buying costs, have yet to have the effect they are looking for. Prices for second-hand houses were even weaker.

China’s industrial production rose +5.4% in November from the same month a year ago, mildly exceeding market estimates and October's growth rate of +5.3%. The expansion was due to a good +6.0% rise in manufacturing. At the same time electricity production only rose +0.9% in the same basis, so that does undermine somewhat the validity of the industrial gains. And that low gain does match the 'headwinds' narrative they have been talking about. Their industrial production data seems to ignore that, and their weak PMIs. Something's not quite right.

China's retail sales rose by +3.0% year-on-year in November, slowing from a +4.8% growth in the previous month and below market expectations of a +4.6% gain. This marked the weakest growth in retail activity since August. But compared with many other countries, this 'weak' expansion is better than inflation.

The Indian PMI for December recorded an improving factory sector, and a services sector that is still expanding fast.

India exports in November however fell to their lowest level since October 2022, down -5.2% from the same month a year ago. India is not much of a trading nation relative to the size of their economy, so the rise in economic activity is all about internal demand. However, imports surged +28% on that same year-on-year basis, and to an all-time record high.

It might seem a tad ironic for a major oil producer, but Iran is proposing sweeping closures of public facilities, a move officials attribute to icy winter temperatures and the need for energy management while the country suffers massive shortages due to infrastructure failures. “Iran is on the brink of a 40% blackout in just 18 days,” said one local analyst.

In Europe, Moody’s unexpectedly downgraded France’s credit rating from Aa2 to Aa3, citing concerns over deteriorating public finances amid political instability. For reference, Moody's rates New Zealand and Australia, each separately Aaa (although perhaps they will review ours after Thursday's GDP result).

In Australia, financial system regulator ASIC is suing HSBC Australia alleging failures to adequately protect customers from scams.

And AML regulator AUSTRAC is taking Entain to court over "serious" money laundering compliance breaches in its gambling/betting operations. Entain operates the TAB in New Zealand.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.40%, little-changed from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today at US$2651/oz and up +US$4 from yesterday.

Oil prices are down -50 USc to be just on US$70.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down almost -US$1 to be just over US$73.50.

The Kiwi dollar starts today still just on 57.8 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps to 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.8 to be up +20 bps from yesterday at this time.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,866 and up +3.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.2%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.