In this episode of Get the Check, the hosts take a closer look at Kalshi, a prediction market where people can trade on real-world events, including the 2024 presidential election. They explore the benefits of event trading and the philosophies that drive it.

The episode kicks off by defining prediction markets and tracing their history in the US, followed by a look into the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Kalshi’s lengthy regulation journey. The hosts then discuss market-making and Kalshi’s strategic partnership with an institutional investor. Then finally, they delve into how education, collective wisdom, and bias play a part in event trading.

Tune in for a deep dive into prediction markets and election betting, and don’t forget to follow @getthecheck on all social media platforms to catch next week’s episode on SpaceX!

00:00 What is a prediction market?

03:54 Founding story

05:45 Road to regulation with the CFTC

09:46 Liquidity and market making

13:25 Competitive landscape of prediction & election betting

18:07 Using Kalshi to hedge against personal risk

22:47 Collective wisdom 

30:00 Future of prediction markets

37:30 Restaurant pick of the week