In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philosophical value of prediction markets.

–

Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prediction-markets-stephen-grugett/

–

Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

–

Links:

• Manifold https://manifold.markets/ 

• Bits About Money https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/

–

Twitter:
@patio11

@ManifoldMarkets

–

Timestamps:

(00:00 ) Intro

(00:26 ) Understanding prediction markets

(02:15 ) Manifold's calibration and performance

(06:48 ) The role of bots in prediction markets

(10:52 ) User-created markets and community practices

(15:49 ) Forecasting, and superforecasters

(18:26 ) Crafting good markets on Manifold

(23:07 ) Sponsor: Check

(24:20 ) Evolution of Manifold's loan system

(26:13 ) Market participation and capital efficiency

(27:57 ) The LK-99 superconductor markets on Manifold

(28:57 ) Social aspects of market participation

(32:31 ) Building Manifold and user growth trajectory

(34:57 ) Innovative use cases for prediction markets

(38:52 ) Prediction market vs. traditional market

(42:22 ) Play money markets with real cash prizes

(46:14 ) Historical and regulatory context of prediction markets

(49:32 ) The importance of market optics

(50:44 ) Wrap

–

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.