Bitcoin Bets: A New Era for Crypto Prediction Markets?
Update: 2025-09-18
Description
Bitcoin Betting is Coming: A new idea could let you bet on events like the U.S. presidential election and stay invested in Bitcoin, avoiding the opportunity cost of stablecoins. The concept involves settling prediction market bets in Bitcoin, potentially attracting more crypto-native users and those in countries with unstable currencies. The paper explores three strategies for building these markets, each with trade-offs like exchange-rate risk and slippage. While promising, Bitcoin-settled markets carry risks, including volatility and liquidity concerns, and require careful design to ensure user understanding.
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