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It feels like a long time since the UK hosted the relatively well-received COP26 in Glasgow. That event marked the first time negotiators explicitly referenced the need to "phase down unabated coal" and "phase-out fossil fuel subsidies".

Since then countries have largely failed to meet their commitments. There is a "massive gap between rhetoric and reality", argues the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) that must be closed by new climate pledges and implemented by governments.

Many countries are not on track to meet current, inadequate, commitments, with policy projections from G20 nations exceeding them by a collective one billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions (in carbon dioxide equivalent, CO2e) in 2030.

In the meantime global temperatures have risen sharply.

2023 saw a rapid, and sustained, rise in global temperatures that went far beyond the more incremental rise seen in previous years. 2024 is on track to become the hottest year on record.

Not all of this increase can be attributed to rising emissions. Some may be temporary: the transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions significantly influenced the global temperature rise in 2023.

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But many scientists believe these factors do not explain the scale of the temperature rise, raising alarm at an unprecedented drop in nature's ability to absorb carbon.

The planet's oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks have to this point absorbed about half of all human emissions. But as the Earth heats up scientists believe those crucial processes are breaking down.

Preliminary findings show the amount of carbon absorbed by land collapsed in 2023. Forests, plants and soil absorbed almost no carbon, an unprecedented outcome.

There are similar warning signs at sea. Greenland's glaciers and Arctic ice sheets are melting faster than expected, disrupting the Gulf Stream ocean current and slowing the rate at which oceans absorb carbon.

This sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into climate models, and would rapidly accelerate global warming if sustained.

"Terrestrial ecosystems are losing their carbon store and carbon uptake capacity, oceans are also showing signs of instability," Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told an event at New York Climate Week in September.

"Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end."

Philippe Ciais, researcher at the French Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences, argues that "in the northern hemisphere, where you have more than half of CO2 uptake, we have seen a decline trend in absorption for eight years. There is no good reason to believe it will bounce back".

The consequences for climate targets are stark. Even a modest weakening of nature's ability to absorb carbon would mean the world would have to make much deeper cuts to greenhouse gas emissions to achieve net zero.

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The weakening of land sinks - which has so far been regional - also has the effect of cancelling out nations' progress on decarbonisation and progress towards climate goals.

This raises the stakes in Baku. Developing countries have been clear ...