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In 2025, the United States and Vietnam will celebrate 30 years of diplomatic relations—just two years after upgrading their ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. But even as the relationship reaches new heights, it faces a sharp test. On April 2, 2025, the U.S. imposed a sweeping 46% tariff on all Vietnamese goods, among the world’s highest, as part of his global “Liberation Day” tariff reckoning. Just days later, a 90-day pause on the tariff was announced, giving both countries a narrow window to negotiate. Still, the signal is clear: Vietnam, once seen as a key partner in U.S. efforts to diversify away from China, is now feeling the squeeze of great power competition.

Having benefited enormously from the “China Plus One” strategy, Vietnam has become one of the world’s most dynamic manufacturing hubs. But this new trade barrier threatens to undercut its ambitious target of 8% GDP growth in 2025 and double-digit growth in the years ahead. Meanwhile, President Tô Lâm (the new leader of Vietnam) is pushing through bureaucratic reforms to keep Vietnam competitive and attractive to investors.

How will Vietnam adapt to this shifting landscape? What’s next for U.S.-Vietnam economic ties? And what does this moment mean for American businesses, regional stability, and the global order? Join us for a conversation with Professor Edmund Malesky, a leading scholar on Vietnam’s political economy, Professor of Political Economy in the Department of Political Science and Director of the Duke Center for International Development at Duke University.

Music by Sergii Pavkin from Pixabay.