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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌤️ Markets: Soybeans Surge on China Buying

Soybean futures ripped higher Monday on renewed optimism that China is finally buying US product. Jan26 soybeans jumped about 33 cents to $11.57, the best trade since June 2024.
Reuters reported that COFCO bought at least 14 cargoes (~31 mil bu), while Bloomberg pegged the total closer to 20 cargoes. One soybean cargo = ~60,000mt or ~2.2 mil bu.

China’s recent buying (including last week’s 232kmt flash sale) suggests total purchases of 1.0–1.4mmt in recent weeks — only 8–12% of the 12mmt the White House says China will buy before Jan 1. The rally and firmer spreads are being driven entirely by this Chinese activity.

But… higher US futures are once again pricing us above Brazil, hurting competitiveness.

📊 USDA Flash Sale Corrections

USDA revised several daily sales from the shutdown backlog:
The early-November soybean sale to China was cut from 232kmt to 132kmt after a 100kmt cancellation.

Total Chinese soybean purchases reported via flash sales now total 232kmt over two separate announcements.

USDA also removed a previously reported corn sale to Japan.

🏭 NOPA Crush Sets a Record

NOPA members processed 227.65 million bushels in October — a new all-time high.
+15% from September
+14% from October 2024
Well above the trade estimate of 209.52 million

Soybean oil stocks hit 1.31 billion lbs—still the third-lowest October on record, but:
+5% vs September
+22% vs last year
Above expectations at 1.26 billion

🚢 Export Inspections Mixed

Soybeans:
USDA reported 1.2mmt (~43 mil bu) inspected last week —
• +4.6% on the week
• –48% vs last year
• Zero inspected for China

Corn:
2.1mmt (~81 mil bu) —
• +38% on the week
• +135% vs last year
• Easily beat expectations

Wheat:
246,533mt (~9 mil bu) —
• –15% on the week
• +25% vs last year
• Missed expectations

🐄 US Dairy Herd Hits 25-Year High

The US dairy herd reached 9.54 million head in Q3 — the largest since 1993. Producers are keeping more cows to expand beef-on-dairy output at a time when the US beef cow herd is at its smallest level in 70+ years.

This trend won’t fully fix the cattle shortage, but it could drive the first increase in the US calf crop since 2018 and help stabilize supply during future cattle-cycle lows.