The intersection between climate change and armed conflict is complex. For those who have not witnessed the difference between the devestation and social upheaval that results from war compared with any other form of social upheaval it is almost impossible to explain. This is why I see great importance in further understanding these intersections. Climate related violence is a messy marriage of climate stress and poor governance.

ISIS profited from collapsing agricultural positions to bolster its ranks in Iraq and Syria. The recruitment rate of jihadis was three times higher from villages reliant solely on rain than from similar villages with access to irrigation water. 

The developed world is not immune, above and beyond the global impacts of migration it has been documented that violence against women in Greece appears to increase almost in lockstep with summer temperates. In the United States, 85% of the mass shootings that accrued in 2022 took place between the June and September with the physiological changes unleashed by higher temperatures appearing to be a determining factor. 

The migration stories that make the headlines are only the tip of the iceberg. These are based on the 10% of people that flee their homes due to conflict and migrate internationally.  The other 90% impact the towns and cities within their countries. However, as it's generally the best educated and wealthiest people that can actually afford to leave this also undermines the governance and financial security of the impacted villages further undermining these societies.

The urban rural divide a growing issue globally. ISIS recruitment around Mosul was facilitated by the growing disparity between agricultural and urban livelihoods that led to some of the greatest  concentrations of ISIS recruits. The proximity to the city led ensured that villages were very conscious of this growing disparity making them easy targets for the ISIS recruiters.

Peter Schwartzstein is an environmental journalist who has reported on water, food security, and the conflict-climate nexus across some 30 countries in the Middle East, Africa, and occasionally further afield. Peter is a Global Fellow with the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program.

The Heat and The Fury,  is published in September 2024.

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