Deaths of despair / Effective altruism (Angus Deaton)
Update: 2020-11-24
Description
Economist and Nobel Laureate Angus Deaton discusses the rise in "deaths of despair" in the U.S. – deaths from drugs, alcohol or suicide. What's causing it, and how do we know? Also, Julia and Angus debate whether effective altruism can help the poor.
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He seems to place an impossibly high bar on the evidence required for EA, yet requires no evidence to support the idea that school teachers improve educational outcomes. RCTs in Kenya showed textbooks did virtually nothing, but deworming improved attendance and subsequent earnings enormously, so intuition is a terrible guide. The best evidence suggests malaria nets are so cost effective that even if there were a 50% chance they actually do nothing due to unforeseen circumstances, it would still be a good deal based on expected value. If I offer you a million dollars if a coin flip comes up heads, nothing if it's tails, and charge one dollar to play, that's still a great deal for you even though the outcome is uncertain.