Ukraine Russia War MILITARY UPDATE - LATEST

Skip navigation Search Create Avatar image Transcript 0:00 we are likely getting closer and closer to that first announcement of a a meeting between President Trump and uh 0:07 President Putin and uh or maybe it's his designated 0:13 uh Lieutenant with General Kellog and somebody from the Russian side we're 0:18 we've been talking about uh Trump has been talking about really since 2023 how he's going to bring this war to an end 0:24 now he's been inaugurated and now everyone's basically just waiting when is that first meeting going to happen 0:29 and what's going to what's going to be the result of it we've been talking about some of that but now really one of the more Central questions is what role 0:36 will the Ukraine leader have will Ukraine even be involved in this in the negotiations will European Union people 0:43 be involved in this or is it really going to be just the individuals Trump and Putin and everybody else has to just 0:48 sit and wait and watch obviously there's a significant amount of ramifications for all of those parties uh as to how 0:55 this is going to unfold and uh but we're going to try and figure out what that's going to be based on we're going try to read the tea leaves a little bit 1:01 information that's been coming from a number of different quarters and we'll try to lay it out for you and give you our best guest of what may be coming 1:07 next and to try and to do that here we have back on the show after a bit of a Hiatus haric kazianis who is the uh 1:15 president and editor of the publication 1945 You' see me feature several of things that I've written for them in 1:20 there he's uh been very gracious to let me publish some things there it's a great publication lots of people are 1:26 reading it these days uh first of all Harry just welcome back to the show been a while hey Danny happy 1:31 2025 and same to you same to you um it tell us a little bit about uh about 1945 1:37 since that's kind of your main gig now sure so 1945 his big focus is on defense 1:43 National Security foreign policy we don't go into politics that much because 1:48 we are a bipartisan organization um we welcome all viewpoints perspectives from 1:55 you know if tulsey gabard wants to send us a piece or John Bolton who actually does right for 1945 as an occasional 2:01 contributor so we welcome everybody to the table uh just to give everybody an idea of our scale we get about 50 2:08 million page views per month act which actually makes us the biggest foreign policy and National Security publication 2:14 on the planet right now you know that can always change it's there's a lot of competition out there but our big thing 2:19 Danny is is we welcome all viewpoints all perspectives we don't censor anybody and the big thing I would say is is that 2:26 we we do not accept any any foreign money any grants uh the entire publication is essentially 2:33 based by the readers by ads and syndication so that's the only way that we make any money and that means the 2:39 quality has to be good and and what what is the where is the title from 1945 uh it comes from just the end of 2:47 World War II that it happened to end in 1945 and the thinking was when it was created was it 1945 is that PB year 2:55 where where the entire world changed where the Cold War Began where you know Hiroshima Naga Aki had had nuclear bombs 3:01 dropped on them it was the the beginning of the the nuclear age and for for a lot 3:06 of the people who started this this this this website it it felt like every day 3:12 was 1945 like every day was was some pivotal change whether it's AI whether 3:17 it's drones whether it's you know the doings and uncoming of of financial markets the rise of Donald Trump the 3:24 fall of Donald Trump the rerise of Donald Trump so I think you get my point it just seems like every day is just 3:29 total chaos and I think that's what 1945 kind of tries to sort of work on well I 3:35 I obviously I love it uh not just because you published my work uh but because you you include all the 3:42 different viewpoints one of the things that I think and one of the reasons we made our channel is because we we don't like Echo Chambers it's just like all 3:48 right if you're a a lefty you go to this place and you hear all Lefty stuff or or if you're on a righty you hear all that 3:54 whatever but that doesn't help you actually solve problems it doesn't help you actually find out where people are 4:00 so you know how to find Solutions and that's one of the reasons why we uh are really happy about your organization and 4:05 happy to have you here today on that exact uh concept uh and so let's just jump right into what is the concept 4:12 today um we had uh I think this is actually earlier today uh Vladimir 4:17 zalinski I think he's kind of starting to read some of the tea leaves and he's going H am I gonna be left out of this 4:23 uh this little shindig when Trump and Putin beet and he's trying to make a play for his his 4:28 side this can only be done with Ukraine and otherwise it simply will not work 4:33 because Russia does not want to end the war and Ukraine 4:39 does what will be the platform for negotiations I really hope that there 4:44 will be Ukraine America Europe and the Russians yes I would really like for the 4:51 European voice to be there too it is important for us because we will be members of the European 4:57 Union okay yeah you know it seems odd to me that that you're that you're having this discussion from zalinski right now 5:04 at this stage wondering if he's going to be at the table what do you ascribe that to wishful thinking I think at this 5:11 point look Danny I I think to be honest with you let's let's understand how 5:16 these peace talks or or really what are going to be I think ceasefire talks at the beginning are G to go I think Keith 5:22 Kellogg is probably gonna meet Sergey lavro maybe in Zurich and Switzerland a 5:27 neutral country and there's going to be very preliminary discussions of what at 5:32 least I think a ceasefire could look like what would the Contours could be would there be peacekeepers what would 5:38 be lines of control would there be demilitarized zones there's there just in just in talking about a ceasefire 5:45 there's a lot to negotiate forget about some sort of peace treaty to end the war maybe we could talk about that a little 5:50 later because I don't think that's ever going to happen anyway but I I think that's the initial discussion I think lavaro will probe Kellogg to see if what 5:58 what Trump's view are is on Ukraine joining NATO if he gets a sense that Trump is against that which I think it's 6:04 pretty clear he is I think he goes back to Moscow reports to Putin and then there's some sort of big Summit where I 6:12 I honestly think there would be have to probably be at least two Summits to get to even a ceasefire to be honest with 6:19 you forget about peace treaties um you know the longer the larger question does zinsky have a voice at these initial 6:25 talks I think initially at least in the first round of of negoti no I don't think he does I think I think 6:32 I think this is in the beginning a great power discussion between the United States and Russia um I I think zalinski 6:40 will have a voice later on once we get to something you know really firm on paper when it comes to a ceasefire I 6:47 think the United States will will will keep him in the loop they will let him know at every stage of what's going on 6:53 whether it's those Kellogg lavaro discussions or those Putin Trump discussions later on so he'll certainly 6:59 be know a voice that would be considered so will the European Union absolutely I think think all parties that have a 7:05 vested interest in this but I think initially Danny I think the preliminary talks are will just be you know 7:11 bilateral and I think that's the way it has to be at least in the beginning because we have to figure out if there's 7:18 a chance at a ceasefire I think there is I really do I think if you freeze the lines of of of combat where they are now 7:25 I think that's ultimately where anybody that's where we're going to go with this let me ask you that because that's 7:30 that's actually a very very important point because virtually everyone in fact I am not aware of any exceptions in the 7:36 west think that you have to start with the ceasefire but we've shown several times from quote after quote from 7:42 everybody from Putin down to lavro and pesov on down and they say no chance in fact lavro says it's a road to nowhere 7:49 they wouldn't even consider it so if if Russia is actually non-negotiable on 7:55 having a ceasefire and you can understand why because from a military perspective they're on the ascendant so they would lose in a ceasefire and 8:01 the Ukraine would gain if that's the case and if the US side is coming in thinking they're going to have a ceasefire where's the Cs gonna go from 8:08 there it's gonna be tough I'm gonna be honest it's gonna be really really tough I I think what Trump could do to sort of 8:15 sweet in the pot is if Russia would agree to a ceasefire I think it's he could say NATO's off the table for 8:20 Ukraine and I think and I think to be honest with you we need to have that conversation right now in terms of the 8:25 broader foreign policy community in the United States and Kiev and and Moscow forever there is no chance in hell that 8:33 Ukraine is ever joining NATO it's never going to happen I don't I I you can call 8:39 me whatever you name in the book you want to call me for the people who are watching this you can call me Pro Russian just Harry Harry I've been 8:45 saying that there was never a chance for NATO to come in no matter what sber or 8:51 everybody else said it was always gonna be that way we just need to keep saying it because it's that's that's if if 8:57 that's what Ukraine is holding out for just for forget about it it's not going to happen so I think for Trump and Kellogg and anybody who's going to be 9:03 involved in these discussions I think it's it's not important to promise it just yet you don't want to take out your big trump card if you will to you know 9:10 to you want to be able to use it and leverage it and get whatever you can out there but I think you go to the Russians say look both sides are exhausted yes we 9:18 understand you're in the ascendency your your military is doing quite well but I think Trump has been smart to suggest 9:24 that you know may maybe we could and I don't think he will but maybe there could be you know more funding for 9:29 Ukraine and I hope that doesn't happen but he's got to Bluff that he has to do that in those negotiations but you could 9:35 say look if we take NATO off the table what would you think about a ceasefire I mean let's be honest this is the reason 9:41 why Russia went to war and invaded Ukraine in the first place I I don't 9:47 care what what anybody wants to say that that is the number one reason they were afraid that in 10 to 15 years Ukraine 9:54 would be would be a full member of of the EU NATO they would have a powerful 9:59 military they'd have an economy to match and they'd be right on Russia's borders I mean imagine Danny for a second how 10:05 would we feel if Russia was to have a military alliance with Mexico and Russian military equipment would be 10:11 positioned in Mexico you know what happened we would have a complete meltdown in Washington it wouldn't 10:17 matter what party it was involved so I think sometimes what happens to us Danny is because we have these two big 10:23 beautiful oceans we have Canada and Mexico as neighbors we have very lazy geostrategic thinking we're very bad at 10:31 at having any sort of empathy or or thinking about what our opponents where 10:36 they are geographically geost strategically and where their place in the world is I think if we were able to 10:41 do that sometimes I think solutions to a lot of our foreign policy problems would come a lot easier yeah well certainly 10:48 certainly couldn't couldn't argue with any of that U but let's stick for just a second on this Ceasar issue uh I 10:55 mentioned lavro I I want to show you exactly how he put it so you can see that body language as well and then I I 11:01 want to get your thoughts on something on the back side we cannot be satisfied with empty talk so far all we've heard 11:08 is talk about the need to come up with some kind of truce and it's not particularly hidden that this truce is 11:14 needed in order to gain time to continue pumping weapons into Ukraine a truce is 11:19 a road to nowhere so if if that is true and and I 11:24 can just tell you just just taking myself out of any kind of national head you know mentality for the moment just 11:31 saying just militarily speaking I mean the last thing that Russia would want to do is to take the pressure off of 11:37 Ukraine and just say we're going to stop on the current line of contact because now then that gives that takes away the 11:43 advantage that Russia has which is to continue methodically pushing to the west and they've even taken two more 11:48 cities over the weekend uh completed taken Co then that so that's going to move them to the to the forward if they 11:54 take that all if they're willing to have a ceasefire now all of a sudden they lose their leverage because they can't 12:01 continue to force Ukraine into a better position so I don't see any maybe you do 12:07 where that we could offer anything that would make Putin say yeah that's a benefit to me rather than continue 12:12 forward I I think you have to start talking about putting NATO on the table I I really do I mean I think for the 12:18 Russian standing I think for the for the the short to medium term I do agree they do have the advantage but I if if I'm 12:25 Putin sitting in Moscow thinking about the long term I they're not going to be 12:31 able to for two three four five years continue to fund this war at the rate 12:37 that they have I mean I don't think Putin wants to be you know China's 12:42 Junior partner forever I don't think they want to keep having to pay money to North Korea for for arms and for more 12:49 soldiers I don't think they want to have to send Iran you know Su 35 Fighters some of their Best Equipment you know as 12:55 payment for more drones and and other pieces of military kit so I think for Putin I think if he takes the Long View 13:02 think if he can get NATO taken off the table I think it could create the the opes of some sort of ceasefire and then 13:08 maybe we get to an armus something similar to to like we've had in the Korean War we've talked about before I 13:13 think that has advantages for all sides I think Putin is is a smart geopolitical 13:19 player um I I think that's really the only way out of this I don't see there being a a peace treaty where where 13:27 besides you know agre to that that Crimea is you know I know we're going a little further you know deeper in 13:32 history but you know that Crimea is an inviable part of Russia or that Ukraine can AG agree to give the donbass to 13:39 Russia I mean these are things that both sides don't want to agree to I think what we're looking at longterm and it 13:45 might take us you know six months to get there is sort of like a Korean War ending both sides agree to disagree but 13:51 they agree to stop fighting um and that's as as good as you're going to get I mean that that's horrible you know 13:57 it's a it's a sad reality when probably around 1.5 million people are have been inj are going to end up being injured 14:03 and wounded when this war is over but history tells us sometimes that's that is the best you're gonna get okay so let 14:09 me play devil's advocate for a minute and then in fact we'll just say if what I'm about to propose happens then what 14:15 will that do to the Western slash uh pu Trump side so that was lavro here is 14:23 Putin being putting a little bit firmer of a point on it what we need is not just a cease we need peace a longlasting 14:31 peace we don't have any preconditions for talks we are ready to engage in a 14:36 conversation without preconditions but there has to be a basis of something that we agreed 14:42 upon during the talks in Istanbul in late 14:48 2022 uh and based of course on the realities on the ground at this 14:54 moment now what he has subsequently defined as realities on the ground is all four of the the provinces that they 15:02 annexed in 2022 plus Crimea absolutely many of the administrative borders which are still a good portion of them are 15:08 still on the Russian Ukraine side of the line of contact so Russia Putin has said 15:13 those are Russians and that there's in in this telling there is no way that he 15:19 would ever agree to a ceas f that's going to leave Russians on the Ukraine side of that line so he's going to have 15:24 it either administratively in negotiations or by force so if Putin goes on that second path and says no 15:31 that's not even negotiable we won't even start talking anything less than that if they do that meaning they keep fighting 15:37 until they either win it or they have it given to them then what does that leave for the Trump side it's not gonna be 15:43 easy I I mean I'm hoping that that Putin has some ability to give a little bit 15:48 here and I and I think Trump would as well and he would push the linsk and the EU to go along with them but I think for 15:54 those of us who want some sort of grand bargain right now Danny I I just don't see it happening I think what Putin is 16:01 sort of hinting at maybe in those comments is a ceasefire plus maybe some 16:06 sort of framework that everybody can get around and I'll be honest with you I do not have the wisdom to understand what 16:12 that would look like because looking at it from my vantage point it doesn't seem like either side wants to to recognize 16:18 the other side's territorial claims so how do you get to a place where where 16:24 both sides will start to see territory I'm gonna be frank with you I I don't see it right now to be honest with you 16:31 as you said the Russians are on the ascendancy the ukrainians are on the back foot the ukrainians are hoping for more military hardware I don't even know 16:37 if we have any more to get send them at this point to be honest with you so it it it feels to me like the the only way 16:44 to stop the fighting is a ceasefire and then maybe some sort of longer negotiations that go on you know for a 16:51 long period of time months maybe years I you know I don't even know if that's that's possible politically for all 16:57 sides but I think or right or militarily so I I think the 17:02 thing that Trump is going to push for listening to my friends that that are in the white house right now is that it 17:08 seems like ceasefire for Trump is is what he's hoping for and then to try and 17:13 have a longer negotiation that I think and again this is my putting my own personal spin on it that could take a 17:19 couple months to get to some sort of armist maybe I mean that I just don't 17:25 see you know Putin wants peace I think Trump wants peace but nobody want to give up anything to get to peace yeah 17:30 yeah in fact get back I just showed you a minute ago what zalinsky said uh 17:35 earlier today but last week he seemed to be hedging a little bit at Davos and he 17:41 was talking primarily to a European audience and during that speech he he 17:46 kind of implied that hey you know maybe Trump isn't gonna be looking out for either one of us we might nether one of 17:52 us be at the table so we got to stick together watch this right now uh it's not clear whether Europe will even have 17:59 a seat at the table when the war against our country ends and we see how much influence China 18:08 has on Russia and we are and we are deeply grateful to Europe for all the support it's given our country during 18:16 this war but will president Trump listen to Europe or will he negotiate with 18:23 Russia and China without Europe now he he went on to say in that 18:28 at speech that listen um I need some guarantees and I need Europeans to stand 18:34 up and give it to us uh we've had people like Kier starmer and uh Manuel macron 18:39 seem to imply maybe we could maybe we could give some peacekeepers to go into Ukraine which of course the Russians 18:45 have said absolutely is a non-starter even less possible than uh you know a ceasefire on the current line of contact 18:51 from what they're saying so far uh but what what are zelinsky's options here 18:57 because it doesn't look to me Laing by the way there's there's also uh at least according to reports zilinsky three 19:03 times tried to get permission to come to the inauguration uh that was said no uh 19:08 there was there was one of his guys came up I think it was Andre yack came into Washington to talk with some of the Trump people and that doesn't seem to 19:15 have borne much fruit so really what kind of Leverage does zinski have even 19:20 with Trump I first of all Dan I I just would want to say that I think it's really sad that that that bmer zinsky is 19:27 trying to do this divide and conquer between the United States and Europe I I don't I just don't think that's the 19:34 right approach I I I try to take the Long View of these things I mean look at the amount of money and military 19:40 hardware that we've taken from our own military stockpiles endangering our 19:46 country if we ever had a contingency with you know over Taiwan I mean that's that's that's a 19:52 huge I would if I had been president I mean I never would have done anything like that yeah but we did it anyway and 19:59 the Danny think about it from the from the long perspective the United States is $36 trillion in debt this year alone 20:05 we are $1.9 trillion dollars in debt in our in our deficit and we are still 20:10 giving money to Ukraine to this point so how dare V Solinski actually try to lecture the United States and say oh 20:18 Europe is should might not have a seat at the table you know how do you how do you feel about that look I the reason 20:24 that Donald Trump was elected was because Americans feel feel that that we have given and given and given not to 20:31 just Ukraine but to lots of countries around the world whether it comes to military hardware Opening Our economies 20:38 to to so-called free trade where Americans have lost their jobs America has has has done a lot for the world but 20:45 I think what vlir zalinsky is going to find in the next couple months is that Donald Trump is going to place some real 20:50 limits on on what we're able to do and I think what he's going to say to is Linsky is look we've given you something close to $200 billion dollar in in Aid 20:57 military hard where we've given we haven't held much back except aircraft carriers or f-35s or something I be 21:04 honest so so so what what do you want from the United States I mean we're not 21:10 we cannot Danny send peacekeepers I think that's the stupidest idea I've ever heard because think about it you 21:15 don't need to be a military genius to figure this out and if American gets killed by by a Russian Sentry or Soldier 21:22 whether it's accidental or not you know what's going to happen that the neoconservatives going to be like oh my 21:27 God that's an AR five uh you know you know we're going to World War I we're 21:34 not Donald Trump's not stupid he's not gonna do that so I I think zilinski needs to has to understand There's real 21:40 limits now on what the West is going to do for him and I think he needs to start figuring out what his negotiation 21:47 strategy is going to be and to be quite frankly what he's willing to give up and 21:53 what he wants realistically and I think Putin seems to be maybe in in that 21:59 direction I think Trump you know with with comments Danny saying that you know he's he's trying to understand the the 22:05 Russian position which is the right thing to do if you're going to be a smart negotiator is to understand the other side's Viewpoint there there could 22:12 be a way to get to something where all sides can can end the fighting again I don't know what we get beyond that but 22:17 at least we can do that see and then this headline that Gary showing right there that ziny believes Trump can in 22:24 the war but must include Kiev yeah really must he 22:29 because I don't think that that zilinski is in a position to tell Trump anything 22:34 that he must or must not do the question is going to be what he is and I think one of the reasons why zilinski is saying this um Gary if we can slightly 22:41 change up from what we were talking about if you can show these next two back toback Trump talking about how he can work with Putin and Putin talking 22:47 about how he can work with Trump zilinski wants to make a 22:52 deal I don't know Putin does he might not I don't know he should make a deal 22:58 I think he's destroying Russia by not making a deal I think Russia's going to be in big trouble you 23:06 take a look at their economy you take a look at the inflation in Russia so I I would I would hope I got along with him 23:13 great and you know I I would hope he wants to make a deal I'd like to say that Russia never 23:21 refused to come into contact with the United States Administration and there is 23:29 through no fault of ours that's so the previous administration 23:35 refused uh to communicate I always had uh business-like relations with the 23:42 pre previous US president that were very business-like and 23:49 pragmatic but there was trust as well so so you just said that if you 23:57 want to make a negotia deal you have to understand what your opponent is thinking what they want what's important to them and so it seems that both Trump 24:04 and Putin are considering each other's positions I do and I I think Danny even 24:11 even you could even go so far to to Trump to even throw out a tweet or a truth social post to say look just like 24:17 you did with Kim Jong-un you remember those days back in 2019 where look I'll 24:22 right right I'll meet you next Thursday in Zurich meet me here and let and let's talk and let's and let's start ball 24:28 rolling and yeah the ukrainians the EU will get very upset but look at the end of the day we we know the two parties 24:36 that are going to have to have the biggest seats at the table and and of course Ukraine is going to have a a big 24:42 seat as well but it it's going to be Russia and the United States that will be in many respects you know supervising 24:49 the peace if you will and you know I I don't think there's anything wrong in in in making such a statement so I I think 24:56 there is an understanding that the war needs to come to an end I think there's an understanding of the big things that both sides want but the road path to get 25:05 there is is going to be the tricky part taking the emotions out of it you know that you know obviously all all the 25:11 Ukraine is is has lost so many hundreds of thousands of people which is heartbreaking I mean I I feel for that 25:17 but it but at the same time nobody wants to see this thing end up in some sort of accidental escalation where you know 25:25 people start throwing around words like nuclear weapons again I mean we've had had that happen too many times already 25:30 and I just don't see that there's no need for that there is a way to get this done it's it's just going to take both 25:37 sides to really put some political Capital behind it and and Harry there's there's an additional challenge we 25:43 haven't talked about yet but it it is definitely talking about seeing how things look from the other side the 25:48 Russian side so you understand what your environment is going into negotiations Russians are saying yeah about that seat 25:55 for zalinski there's some problems there you may recall and not not many people in the west do anymore but in October of 26:02 2022 zalinski passed a deal uh that said you know what we're not going to 26:08 negotiate with an NA this just for context this came shortly after Russia 26:13 annexed the the four oblas I mean like a matter of days later and so according to 26:19 the the media at the time see K's decision represents uh a quick and unbending rejection of Putin's September 26:25 30th call for bilateral negotiations just for the conference uh what happened 26:31 after he annexed it he also Putin did said hey how's about we get together and we talk about a negotiated settlement to 26:38 this and in his speech at the Kremlin Putin declared we call on the Kiev regime to to cease fire interesting he 26:44 was calling for one there in all combat actions immediately stop this war that 26:49 they claimed Kev Unleashed in 2014 and returned to the negotiating table we have said more than once that we were 26:55 ready for negotiations however the people's Republic of dones luhans Kon and zapia have made their choice so he 27:03 was laying out this hard position even back then that says we're not g to uh give up anything short of that now and 27:10 this this of course was just after they had just announced a mobilization of 300,000 Ukraine had just made 27:16 significant gains in Kon and K oblas that was when they were flush with Victory because it was as it's going to 27:22 turn out their only two major victories battles during this war and and Putin 27:27 saidy let's have a negotiations in response zalinsky said yeah we ain't even going to talk he actually wrote a 27:33 law that says nobody's going to talk to Russia as long as Putin is in office he 27:38 literally made it illegal to do so so uh I believe it was earlier today a 27:44 reporter when zinsky made that previous comment there that we showed at the top about you know wanting to have a seat at 27:49 the table one of the reporters at least in the west actually ask a hard question 27:55 yeah what about that uh that October 5th law that you signed here's what he said what was interesting in those remarks 28:02 that he gave alongside Maya Sandu though was that when he was asked about the official ban that is in place in Ukraine 28:08 on talking with Vladimir Putin it was signed into law in October 2022 that 28:13 Ukraine would not negotiate with Vladimir Putin perhaps with Russia but not with that president and when he was 28:19 asked about it though Vladimir zalinski appeared to say that that ban doesn't apply to him he said essentially I 28:26 banned it for everyone else and then gave rather a rambling answer about how at the time Vladimir Putin was trying to 28:31 reach out to potentially pro-russian or um you know compromised 28:37 actors okay so so there's you got zelinski going yeah well that didn't apply to me I mean I'm above the law I 28:44 mean I don't have to worry about that kind of thing it was for other people here's the problem zilinsky can say that 28:49 it's his country he can just say yeah that doesn't apply and go on problem is there's the other half of that equation 28:55 now here's what Putin has to say we can sign an agreement only with a 29:02 legitimate person and Rada and the chairman of Rada are legitimate are the only legitimate people we need to sign 29:10 this document only with a legitimate representative of legitimate Authority in the Ukraine so the Russians say he's 29:15 not legitimate because in 2024 when they were supposed to have a presidential election when his term of office came to 29:21 an end they just said yeah we don't want to do that oh it's in war we can't do it even though Russia did have an election 29:27 even during that year even though the US did have an election during its Civil War we just said okay you can't well now 29:33 here's the consequences because Russia is saying we're not even gonna talk to you until you have an election so with 29:39 zelinsky's law and with Putin saying we're not going to talk to you how does he get a seat at this table Harry it's 29:46 it's it's you know what this is one of those things where the knot just keeps getting Tighter and Tighter and to undo 29:52 it just keeps getting harder and harder you know I I keep getting brought back Danny to this this this idea I you know 29:59 I've we're going to talk about this a little bit more but I've had a lot of different discussions over the years with different Ukrainian officials and 30:04 the one thing I always press them a little bit on in in the nicest way possible is H how do you how how are you 30:13 going to negotiate with the Russians if your concept of Victory is is Warped 30:19 from reality and what I mean by that is if you if you think that you have to get cremia back if you think you have to get 30:24 donbass back if you think you have to get paid you know hundreds of billions of dollars in in reparations that you 30:30 should join NATO how do you think that negotiation is going to go and you have 30:35 no way to achieve these things um and and it's a huge problem because the 30:41 ukrainians don't ever seem to move off that official position of of absurdness 30:46 and you know this is something I think Donald Trump is goingon to have to deal with because the ukrainians seem to put 30:52 themselves in these sort of geopolitical boxes that they're not going to be able to get out of whether it's this weirdo 31:00 concept of victory that is complet even if the United States s all of its military forces to Ukraine would be kind 31:05 of hard to do or you know these these Straight Jackets of of diplomacy where 31:10 they say well we're not going to negotiate with with Putin and only zinsky can do that and you know what I think the the reason why they keep 31:16 saying oh you know we don't want to negotiate with Putin because I think that the real Ultimate strategy at least 31:22 initially when it came to to the war with with in Ukraine and Russia was that they hoped that Putin would collapse 31:28 that he'd fall out of power that there'd be some sort of Russian Revolution or something that would would would throw him out and Joe Biden said that remember 31:35 when he went to Poland a couple years ago what was his remark this guy's gotta go something like that that man cannot 31:42 remain in power that's it yes yes so you know I think that's always been sort of 31:47 the secret hope and when that didn't happen the West Was sort of like what do we do now and by the way it's not lost 31:55 on Russians that it's Biden who's out of power and Putin who's still in that's kind of a sore spot for his boisterous 32:02 comment there uh but you you mentioned a warp view of reality on the Ukraine side 32:07 this is I think if of many POS problems this may be one of the central problems to their being a negotiated settlement 32:14 that has any possibility of being a a not bad outcome there is no good outcome 32:20 for Ukraine at this point by the way I'll point out but I want to show you something so this is a headline from yesterday in in uh in the Kev press and 32:28 they said uh there was some reports that V NOA Sela had been surrounded and and 32:33 the Russian Ukraine side is saying no there is no threat of Ukrainian forces in circulent in Von NOA Silka that was 32:40 yesterday also yesterday here is this report for what actually was going on on 32:45 the battlefield in V the most important updates for the previous 24 hours is coming from the south the direction 32:52 according to information we have according to the Minister of Defense of Russian Federation on January 20 6 of 32:58 2025 as a result of active offensive actions by units of the fif's Guard 33:03 separate tank Brigade of the 36 Army and the 14 guards Marine Brigade of the vau 33:09 group of forces the settlement of fikas of the Dan People's Republic was taken 33:15 by the Russians so the city was taken it wasn't even just surrounded about 36 hours 33:22 prior to that headline there the city had been cut in half and all of the guys in the South there was several 33:28 Ukrainian soldiers had been in fact surrounded and when they're making the claim that there is no risk of that the 33:33 city was already fallen so if you can't even acknowledge what's actually going on on the ground how are you going to 33:39 get into a negotiating where you want to try to get anything from the Russian side Danny the only thing I could say is 33:45 this and this is horrible and it it pains me to say it but in order to have a negotiated settlement you have to have 33:52 a reality of where you are on the battlefield what you can get from a settlement and what your future looks 33:58 like and when I if if I was President sininsky you know maybe I wouldn't be able to do this but if if I was able to 34:05 take the much longer view what I would do is I would look at these Battlefield losses I'd say to myself well the West 34:11 doesn't really have any more military equipment to send me even if they did even if they sent me that the very best 34:17 military hardware they have It's Gonna Take Years to actually make it do something on the battlefield as because 34:22 it'll take years to have TR troops that can use it right even even worse than that I mean that that's that's exactly 34:29 so so zalinski is forced into a very short bad term position where yeah he's 34:34 he's eventually he's going to have to make a deal that he probably doesn't like and the Ukrainian people aren't 34:40 going to like but imagine this imagine if you took the Long View and you said okay I'm I'm gonna take a deal that 34:46 where I'm gonna probably lose some territory it's it's it's going to hurt me politically but in the Long View I 34:53 think if zolinski understood that he probably would be able to get himself into the European union he he's not 34:59 going to be able to join NATO but I think it seems pretty clear that he's Pro he's going to be able to get 35:06 hundreds of billions of dollars of brand new military hardware to restock his military will put the the actual 35:12 training in in and Manpower part of that aside he's going to at least get on 35:18 paper the the hardware he needs to deter the Russians he's going to get more than 35:23 likely trillions of dollars in economic aid and grants and and in lots of Western and European and Asian companies 35:31 who want to come in and rebuild Ukraine if you take the Very Long View Danny on 35:37 Ukraine they they could rebuild themselves and and become a a very powerful rich country I mean they have 35:44 the agricultural resources they they have the mineral resources it they will need to have a lot of you know the 35:49 millions that have left Ukraine to to come back and and create a a position where people feel comfortable that 35:54 they're not going to get invaded Again by the Russians but if you took the long-term view Ukraine could have a 36:00 bright future but it's gonna take some guts to get there it's gonna take that 36:05 that hard look at things to understand of what Ukraine could be here here's the 36:11 there's there's a couple of big problems with that but and I'll mention to here if you don't take and it's it's not even 36:17 long term I would say generational view because for what you described there it would take a generation to get there but 36:22 it's possible if you fail to take that view though and and are unwilling to pay the political hit that you've correctly 36:29 identified in the near term you're not going to have that future because then you're going to basically leave the 36:34 Russians with the position we'll either get what we want the negotiating table or we'll take it I.E a lot of that 36:40 Farmland you're talking about a lot of those Rare Earth minerals Etc will be under Russian control and they'll be 36:46 going to Moscow not to anywhere in the west that's one of the big problems could worse this way no it's okay it 36:53 could get even worse because you the longer this war goes on the the the the fear I have that that one one side or 37:01 the other is going to make some sort of accidental mistake where you put us on a path to to Nato Russian confrontation I 37:06 mean we already had incidents where where Russian missiles went into Poland everybody thought oh my God maybe the 37:12 Russians did it on purpose I I mean the Ukrainian side could have the same problems whether they have an erant 37:17 Patriot battery go wild or you know who knows I mean there's lots of different paths to escalation I mean the 37:24 ukrainians keep F flying drones towards Moscow what if them accidentally hit the Kremlin I mean I'm just speculating here 37:31 there's so many paths to escalation that all sides need to understand that it's time to wind this war down nobody 37:38 there's not gonna be any Grand winner in this thing to be honest with you yeah and and uh there could be a grand loser 37:44 though and and one last thing I want to look at because it's it gets very little attention in the west uh everybody's 37:50 right now just almost you know myopically focused just on whether zinski is going to be at the table or 37:56 what Putin and Trump are going to discuss but what comes after however this is going to be wound down and it 38:01 will wound down at some point whether for military conquest or through negotiated settlement it'll come to an 38:06 end what comes next though hasn't gotten enough attention and I think it needs to because who is going to pay to rebuild 38:13 Ukraine you mentioned something about a lot of money who's gonna pay that money that that's a very good question so I've 38:19 been to working my my sources in Ukraine over the last couple weeks to put together a new story for 1945 and I'm 38:24 going to break a little bit with you here on Deep dive so I I spoke to a very senior 38:31 Ukrainian Financial trying to give it the I don't want to he spoke to me on background so 38:36 I don't want to betray him but we'll say a very close um economic advisor to to 38:42 that speaks directly to president slinsky he's part of the Ukrainian government and and what he said was striking I I asked him I said what do 38:48 you think it would cost to rebuild Ukraine today and in 2025 he was very quick to give an answer he said at least 38:54 $2 trillion and before I could say any more Danny he said this and the United States needs to pay for it I was taking 39:01 it back I said well why why do you think that he said it's the United States fault that the war between Russia and 39:08 Ukraine broke out in the first place wait wait wait wait wait whose fault was 39:14 it yeah and and I said to him well why do you think that tell me I'm very I'm very interested I want to understand your perspective and he said because the 39:21 United States did not push to get Ukraine into NATO it gave Russia window 39:27 of an opportunity to invade and basically destroy Ukraine so there's no viable chance that that would be able to 39:34 join NATO anytime soon so when I heard this I said okay I appreciate your perspective I mean I you know put my my 39:41 editor cap on I you know don't neither disagree or agree said okay so I reached 39:47 out to other other contacts in the Ukrainian government to to to kind of get a a pulse check of this to see where 39:53 they are when it comes to to reconstruction what it would cost who's to blame those those same questions and 40:00 there was a pretty wide perspective that I wouldn't say they they used the same exact wording and phraseology but they 40:06 all agreed the cost to rebuild Ukraine would be about 1.5 I got 1.75 trillion 40:12 to to about2 trillion doll for for full rebuilding and when it came to the the 40:17 costs everybody I spoke to theuk Ukrainian government including another official who's pretty close to Linsky 40:23 said that they didn't feel Ukraine should pay for it that that the West was was was rich enough powerful enough 40:30 that if they wanted a Ukraine that was a full partner with the West that it 40:35 should be the West and I I some responses too were you know Asian countries like like Japan South Korea 40:42 one offered Australia as a possible funding source that it should be the collective democracies if you will that 40:49 should should pay to rebuild Ukraine and my this is my opinion I I you know I I I 40:55 leave those opinions where they are but from my perspective I I don't think that's going to work out very well for Ukraine if 41:02 that's what they're expecting because first of all again like we just talked about Danny United States is$ 36 trillion dollar in debt $1.9 trillion 41:08 dollar deficit this year alone we we we cannot afford to rebuild Ukraine we I I would assume we will give some money and 41:15 Aid to help rebuild but we do not have the ability to to to Bear The Lion Share especially when we just spent six 41:21 trillion dollars trying to get out of the covid-19 pandemic that was basically our Our World War III slush fund if we 41:26 were ever going to need one um the financial markets are against us Danny the bond markets they look at Donald 41:32 Trump and they're afraid that he's going to spend a lot more money raise that deficit more they're warning him don't 41:38 you dare do it it's it's gonna end up very badly for you now maybe the Europeans will will put some money into 41:43 it that's possible but as we get to it to to where this war starts to end I 41:48 think there needs to be conversations with ukrainians on what those expectations look like because I I think 41:54 yeah I mean just just look I mean here's just a couple things you just jumped right out of me number one Donald Trump 42:00 who has all been saying that we are already spending too much money in Europe and we're going to maybe start 42:05 cutting things back on our existing requirements or our obligations the last thing he would want to do is to say but 42:12 you know what we'll take a lion share of giv cash to Ukraine uh I just don't see that happening but then the second thing 42:19 you look at the European half of that equation I mean look at how much money has been totally from the West given and 42:24 how much of that has been the US and how much of that has been Europe and it ain't that big in Europe not quite two 42:30 trillion dollars if my math serves me correctly uh I mean they may be lucky if they get 100 billion I mean honestly in 42:36 the near future yeah I mean I think for the ukrainians I mean again taking the Long View they they're their path to 42:43 reconstruction is to go to the private Equity markets to go to Private Industry 42:49 and once there is some sort of ceasefire peace negotiation armis whatever they they need to look at how other countries 42:56 have rebuilt from war isn't always from you know the generosity of the United States or the West I mean there's 43:02 there's trillions of dollars in private equity and private money out there that would love to move into Ukraine that 43:07 would love to modernize their country I mean if you think about Danny the needs that Ukraine has they need an internet 43:13 infrastructure they need you know clean water they need clean air they need to to completely rebuild their economy from 43:20 the ground their their energy grid their electricity their heating system have all but been destroyed so that's got to 43:26 be almost from stretch yeah their nuclear energy needs to be safe and secure I mean there's the the needs go 43:32 on and on so there's opportunities for zalinsky to partner with with with private companies around the world who 43:38 would love to get in on on rebuilding that country and and I think it it would 43:43 be wrong in in in the wrong strategy for the ukrainians to say well you know just to stick your hand out and say give me 43:49 money they're not going to have a very good response from the American people because that's one of the reasons that 43:55 Donald Trump was elected in the first place and again the longterm view Danny is that the United States when we think 44:02 about its relationship with Europe I think one of the things Trump is starting to think about maybe when the Ukraine war is over is do we need a 44:09 100,000 troops in in Europe when Europe's GDP is almost the equal of the 44:14 United States it doesn't make any sense I mean I mean it doesn't make any sense at all to me I mean just a very 44:21 practical perspective so I I think these are the things that are are going to come out as we start getting closer to 44:27 peace negotiations you know one of the things Harry that just it just anguishes me because it just almost inevitably 44:34 will will come to to certain this one one degree or another and that is we've shown many times on our Channel this 44:40 this famous uh clip from I think November of Lindsey Graham talking with Glee about basically we'll just rape 44:47 Ukraine whatever's left of all of their rare Earths and everything is to get us money whatever and me he's saying it out 44:53 loud and I assure you there's other people that are not saying it out loud but behind the scenes they want to take 44:58 control of all this stuff and the you're whatever's left of Ukraine will not really be in a position to demand good 45:05 terms and I I fear that you're going to end up seeing a lot of this just carcass to be picked over by others for 45:12 Generations that's truth and that would be horrible that would that would that would take the tragedy of this war and 45:17 make it even worse that that what is left for Ukraine needs to be rebuilt for ukrainians so they they can have some 45:24 sort of future ahead for them and I I and I think that can happen I I really do I mean I mean look what happened to 45:30 South Korea at the end of the Korean War they were there wasn't anything left they were wiped out yeah 96% of the 45:35 buildings in in in in nor South Korea were wiped out they had to completely start from scratch look where they are 45:41 today present political situation excluded but look they they have one of the most powerful 45:48 economies on Earth they have they have brands that are the Envy of the world you you you know if you take that long 45:55 view 40 50 years out that that could be something Ukraine could Aspire for but they again you have 46:01 to take that long-term political view where you know in the short term you're going to take a ding but in the long 46:07 term you're there's going to be benefit and and again we can't listen to the lindsy Grahams of the world because I think history shows they they've been 46:13 wronged time and time again yeah yeah definitely that's a good that's a good just rule of thumb just ignore whatever 46:20 Lindsey gaham says absolutely uh uh well listen we really appreciate you talking 46:25 about this stuff and especially this basically breaking news which I guess is going to come out in 1945 soon couple 46:30 days absolutely couple days well we'll just direct everybody y'all just keep looking at whenever that does come out we'll we'll let people know uh so they 46:37 can follow the link to that story I'm looking eager to read that myself uh but in the meantime we appreciate you coming 46:43 on today a whole lot and and give us some clarity on this what's what is to come thanks Danny and also just to let 46:51 you know we've got another show coming up later this afternoon where we're going to get into some of the other issues related to to this uh this whole 46:57 Russia Ukraine war that you probably have not seen yet also though to give you kind of a preview uh what could 47:04 really up end a lot of these talks is the status quo that people think they understand about where this war is we're 47:10 gonna have Colonel jacqu bo back on tomorrow uh at noon eastern time that's going to have some additional breaking 47:16 news something that you haven't heard anywhere else about a possibility for a basically an uprising on the Ukraine 47:23 side of the line of contact in the rear of the Ukraine Army which could completely change the Tactical dynamics 47:30 of this war and will have a direct impact on what any kind of negotiations that may come something you just you 47:35 haven't heard anywhere else be sure to turn in noon tomorrow in the meantime be sure and like And subscribe if you haven't done that on your way out today 47:42 we always really appreciate that and we will see you tomorrow on the Daniel Davis Deep dive 47:56 a Show chat replay Will UKRAINE be at the table for Peace Talks? w/Harry Kazianis of 19fortyfive.com

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