Demographics aren't destiny
Digest
The podcast episode begins by discussing the political landscape, particularly focusing on Latino voters and their potential impact on the 2024 election. The episode explores how Kamala Harris is performing with this demographic and compares her performance to Joe Biden's in 2020. The discussion highlights the changing dynamics of Latino voters and their potential shift away from the Democratic party. The episode then shifts focus to Vice President Harris's performance with other key Democratic voting groups, including black voters and white voters with college degrees. The discussion explores the potential for demographic shifts and the importance of voter turnout in the upcoming election. The episode concludes with a discussion about the "October surprise" in the 2024 election and the overall stability of partisanship. The discussion highlights the fact that despite recent events and controversies, most voters remain loyal to their chosen candidates.
Outlines
The Political Landscape and Latino Voters
This podcast episode begins with a discussion about the political landscape, particularly focusing on Latino voters and their potential impact on elections. The episode explores how Kamala Harris is performing with this demographic and compares her performance to Joe Biden's in 2020. The discussion highlights the changing dynamics of Latino voters and their potential shift away from the Democratic party.
Advertisements and Vice President Harris's Performance
This segment includes advertisements for "Criminal" podcast, Mint Mobile, and Quince. The episode then shifts focus to Vice President Harris's performance with other key Democratic voting groups, including black voters and white voters with college degrees. The discussion explores the potential for demographic shifts and the importance of voter turnout in the upcoming election.
The October Surprise and Partisanship
The episode concludes with a discussion about the "October surprise" in the 2024 election and the overall stability of partisanship. The discussion highlights the fact that despite recent events and controversies, most voters remain loyal to their chosen candidates.
Keywords
Latino Voters
Latino voters are a significant and growing demographic in the United States, with increasing influence on elections. Their voting patterns and preferences are closely watched by political strategists and analysts.
Demographics are Destiny
This phrase refers to the belief that demographic trends, such as population growth and shifts in racial and ethnic composition, will inevitably lead to certain political outcomes. However, recent elections have shown that demographics are not always destiny, as voters can break traditional patterns and behave differently.
Swing Voters
Swing voters are those who are not firmly aligned with either major political party and can potentially vote for either candidate in an election. They are often considered to be the most influential group of voters, as their decisions can determine the outcome of close races.
October Surprise
An October surprise is an unexpected event or revelation that occurs close to an election and can potentially influence the outcome. These events can be positive or negative for a candidate, and they are often seen as a way to sway undecided voters.
Q&A
How is Kamala Harris performing with Latino voters in the 2024 election?
While Harris is doing better than Joe Biden did in 2020, there are signs that Latino voters are becoming less reliably Democratic and may be shifting their support towards other candidates.
What are some of the key factors influencing Latino voters' decisions in the 2024 election?
Issues like the economy, immigration, and the management of the southern border are playing a significant role in shaping Latino voters' preferences.
What is the significance of the "October surprise" in the 2024 election?
The "October surprise" refers to unexpected events that can potentially influence the outcome of the election. While there have been several such events in recent months, it remains unclear whether they will have a significant impact on the race.
What does the stability of partisanship suggest about the 2024 election?
The fact that most voters remain loyal to their chosen candidates despite recent events and controversies suggests that the 2024 election will likely be a close race, with a small number of voters ultimately deciding the outcome.
Show Notes
Latinos and other groups that typically vote for Democrats are showing weaker support for Kamala Harris. Vox's Christian Paz and Cook Political Report's Amy Walter explain how that's shaking up this election.
This episode was produced by Avishay Artsy and Eliza Dennis, edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by Andrea Kristinsdottir and Patrick Boyd, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram.
Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast
Support Today, Explained by becoming a Vox Member today: http://www.vox.com/member. This story is part of The Present - and future - of the American Left package. More here: https://trib.al/vnUL3o6.
Supporters of Kamala Harris put up posters in Latino neighborhoods in Philadelphia. Photo by Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images.
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