Developers re-rate in gold as M&A moves down the food chain, says Adshead-Bell
Description
Nicole Adshead-Bell, Director at Cupel Advisory, joins Kitco Mining’s Digging Deep to unpack what the current bull market looks like on the ground after two intense weeks of meetings and panels. “We are definitely in a bull market, but we are not yet seeing the crazy bubble-like behavior.” From financing windows reopening to packed investor schedules, she lays out the signals that matter.
After running a well-attended Mining 101 short course aimed at non-specialists, Adshead-Bell says interest is rising, but the rotation is still early: “Generalists are definitely doing their homework. I don't think they're in the sector in a material way yet, but we will start to see more of those marginal inflows, which of course, drive share prices higher.” She adds that what normally happens is, “FOMO drives boards and management teams. And that's when you start seeing above precedent, transaction premiums paid, and also competition for assets.”
Capital allocation is also shifting, with companies talking growth, boosting exploration budgets, and taking M&A down the food chain as boards look for multi-asset scale and pipeline depth. On valuation discipline, Adshead-Bell is clear: “I think the best arbiter is true free cash flow, and then obviously free cash flow per share.” She also flags how reserve price assumptions may trend higher, why manufactured transactions and royalty financing are shaping deal flow, and how new pools of capital, including Middle East sovereign wealth, are impacting metals exposure.
The conversation also touches on the World Gold Council’s new campaign, “Touched by Gold,” a documentary featuring Elton John that links gold to culture and its roles in medicine and technology, including pacemakers and HIV detection. Adshead-Bell is skeptical of the approach: “I do not think this is an effective way to message gold,” and she argues for sharper PR and digital outreach that reaches younger investors with clear, accessible content.
Adshead-Bell makes the case for better corporate messaging and transparency so investors can do the work quickly, while cautioning against classic top signals like 100% bid premiums and a stampede of generalists.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this podcast are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this podcast do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.