DiscoverMind the MacroDousing the Spinnaker: Removing Risk from the Portfolio (September 5, 2025)
Dousing the Spinnaker: Removing Risk from the Portfolio (September 5, 2025)

Dousing the Spinnaker: Removing Risk from the Portfolio (September 5, 2025)

Update: 2025-09-06
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We trimmed the portfolio’s risk profile earlier this week,though the fund remains fully invested in equities. In March and April 2025, we shifted the portfolio toward higher-beta sectors, reducing positions in defensive areas such as healthcare while increasing allocations to more volatile technology stocks. At the time, we likened the maneuver to hoisting a spinnaker to catch an additional gust of market momentum. The move proved highly profitable. However, recent data has altered the calculus. A succession of weaker economic releases has diminished the prospective reward, while this week’s signs of labor-market softness have further underscored the case for caution. Although the FederalReserve may yet avert a recession, the slowdown is palpable. Thus, we are “dousing the spinnaker” and positioning for a more unsettled, and potentially more volatile, course ahead.

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Dousing the Spinnaker: Removing Risk from the Portfolio (September 5, 2025)

Dousing the Spinnaker: Removing Risk from the Portfolio (September 5, 2025)

Michael Roberts and Jeff Baldwin