EBRD Lowers Global Growth Forecast Due to Trade Uncertainty
Update: 2025-11-24
Description
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its global growth forecast for next year down to 3.2%, citing trade policy uncertainty as a significant factor. The USs escalating trade tensions, including threats of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, have created uncertainty that can harm trade, investment, and production. While the direct impact on EBRDs regions, such as Eastern Europe and Central Asia, is expected to be limited, the indirect effects could be more significant. Diminished economic growth in advanced European countries and US policies, including potential cuts to financial aid and high interest rates, could impact emerging markets. These shifting trade dynamics, along with the war in Ukraine, are reshaping global investment patterns, with investment flowing into connector economies like the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Kazakhstan.
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