EP: 2 - ULA, Blue Origin & More
Update: 2024-03-29
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In this episode Tim answers several of your questions about Scrubs, Weather delays, ULA, Blue Origin and Artemis.
If you want your questions answered, just use hashtag #spacewalkpodcast and we’ll take questions from there each episode, but we’ll also be taking questions from our patron supporters, YouTube members and X subscribers as well as a thank you
If you want your questions answered, just use hashtag #spacewalkpodcast and we’ll take questions from there each episode, but we’ll also be taking questions from our patron supporters, YouTube members and X subscribers as well as a thank you
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Transcript
00:00:00
Hi, it's me Tim Dodd, the Everyday Astronaut.
00:00:02
Welcome to episode two of the Spacewalk Podcast.
00:00:07
Yeah, so we've got a little show here for you guys.
00:00:09
Normally, I'm trying to kind of stick to like, a general theme or topic.
00:00:13
And this week's theme is, there is no theme.
00:00:16
I did find a few things that kind of string together, a few questions for you guys that kind of string together, but today we're gonna be talking about kind of like weather and conditional restraints of launching rockets.
00:00:25
We're talking a little bit about ULA and Blue Origin, and also the Ardner's program and kind of how they all fit in together.
00:00:31
So, yeah, let's get started.
00:00:33
(upbeat music)
00:00:35
- Are there any way to travel in and free?
00:00:49
- All right, so this first question comes from, we kind of have the same question from two people.
00:00:55
So this one's from head crab zombie, which is at the nether guy on Twitter, and there's also Max at who's at X, Jail, underscore four on Twitter.
00:01:06
Well, head crab zombie specifically asks, how much of a difference does the size of a rocket make to its ability to launch and we got a car?
00:01:14
Some ambient audio for you all.
00:01:17
Forget listening pleasure.
00:01:19
How much difference does the size of a rocket make to its ability to launch in poor to restaurant weather?
00:01:25
Could us launch when electron was grounded?
00:01:28
And then Max also says, how can we increase likelihood of successful launches in bad weather?
00:01:32
Is there anything that can help prevent and reduce weather delays and scubs?
00:01:36
So, okay, this is a great question to be honest.
00:01:38
This is one that I don't, I've got some, I know a few things about it, but I don't know like, I don't know the big giant limiting factor per launch vehicle.
00:01:49
One of the big ones though.
00:01:50
So ground winds, the biggest reason for ground winds, like, you know, when you're just sitting there and I said, I'm gonna use miles an hour, sorry.
00:01:57
Like say there's a 20 mile an hour sustained wind or something.
00:02:01
The big concern there is when the rocket takes off that it can just kind of be getting tipped over, get tipped towards the launch pad, get tipped off angle from the launch clamps.
00:02:11
There's just a few things specifically with taking off that more or less is going to be a ratio of its kind of it's drag coefficient versus it's like mass ratio.
00:02:21
So a rocket like actually recording this on the day of likely the last Delta IV heavy.
00:02:26
So this is a perfect example.
00:02:28
Delta IV heavy has a huge surface area compared to its mass because it has so much hydrogen and it's hydrogen boosters.
00:02:39
The surface area is massive.
00:02:43
And so realistically, you know, Delta IV heavy is, you know, it kind of competes most of the time with like, you know, Atlas V kind of has some crossover points almost like it's not that much more powerful than an Atlas V in its fullest configuration.
00:02:58
And Vulcan's literally able to completely do everything that the Delta IV heavy can do basically.
00:03:04
So if you look at that, the Vulcan, yes, it will have some solid rocket boosters but it's all together, you know, smaller than a tri-core Delta IV heavy.
00:03:14
Now Delta IV heavy because it's tri-core raises that heavy configuration like that with the two strap on boosters.
00:03:22
What's interesting about that is when it's facing, you know, if you're the wind and you're looking at it in one direction, you know, from a certain thing, the three cores will be aligned and it will look just like a single rocket.
00:03:34
So from that point of view, the wind doesn't have as much cross-effect, cross-wind effect.
00:03:38
No, it doesn't have as much surface area to grab onto.
00:03:41
Now if the wind's coming from a 90 degrees to that where it sees all three cores, its surface area is effectively tripled basically.
00:03:49
So therefore, depending on, you know, the cross-wind that has huge launch constraints differences on it.
00:03:56
So I remember when I, the first rocket, I really could actually see and fully experienced fully was a Delta IV heavy, which is why it's always got a good place in my heart.
00:04:06
And it was for the launch of Orion EFT1.
00:04:09
And I remember it was like, the big talk was, on one of the scrub days was, oh man, it's looking like it's gonna go, but the wind's right now, we're like right at the limit, but if it shifts direction,
00:04:20
it would be totally fine.
00:04:22
And it was like, because from this direction, it would push the rocket into the launch tower.
00:04:26
And specifically again, because the three cores just have someone's surface area.
00:04:31
Now, so this varies completely from rocket to rocket.
00:04:34
You know, people are quick to look at starch and we go, man, that thing has, you know, just a crazy amount of surface area, like, you know, a cable we can handle any wind that lift off.
00:04:45
And the reality is, it's also extremely, extremely heavy.
00:04:49
And it's more dense than hydrogen, the methane and methalox.
00:04:53
So it's, you know, it's more dense, so therefore it won't get pushed around by the wind as much.
00:05:00
But of course, it has, you know, arrow features like flaps.
00:05:03
So again, it might have certain constraints from certain directions that other rockets wouldn't have to consider because it has those flaps open while sitting on the pad.
00:05:11
I'm still kind of surprised, I don't just tuck them away, but maybe it's some weird mock things going on and weird, I don't know.
00:05:18
That still does just kind of surprise me.
00:05:20
So yeah, so that's one of the big ones.
00:05:23
It's kind of the ground winds is effectively going to be, you know, how much does wind push this rocket around?
00:05:30
And just because it's a smaller rocket doesn't necessarily mean the wind's going to push it more.
00:05:35
It can, but again, like if electron is actually more dense, you know, it has a tiny surface area.
00:05:40
So there's actually less chance of wind pushing it around.
00:05:44
But it's carelock, so it's actually quite dense.
00:05:48
So it might actually be affected by ground wind less than other rockets.
00:05:51
Now the big one for rockets though, the big one is, as it's ascending, the winds change.
00:05:57
You know, if you look at jet streams, they're going literally, you know, you go from, I'll sign, I'm going to kilometers, from one kilometer to another kilometer, oftentimes the winds are like 180 degrees from each other.
00:06:08
It's crazy.
00:06:09
Like jet streams are wild.
00:06:11
And it's really hard to, you know, kind of know, it's something that we don't really experience unless you're like flying and you haven't realized that your flight got in 30 minutes earlier or whatever.
00:06:19
But realistically, you know, most of us don't really think of or have much to do with jet streams.
00:06:26
But the reality is, as a rocket ascending, it's passing through different layers really quickly.
00:06:32
You know, it could be going from a wind shear that's going in one direction to a wind shear that's going in another direction, literally in like a second.
00:06:41
And they could be going 180 degrees to each other, which puts a huge bending moment in the rocket, not just necessarily because like, not like the wind is hitting it that hard, but because the engines have to gimbal and compensate for that wind and,
00:06:53
you know, steer into the wind and maintain its trajectory.
00:06:56
So it's kind of this whole, it's a whole, you know, combination of things, the shifting of the wind, plus the compensation to stay on course, I can really put a big bending moment in the rocket.
00:07:07
So a rocket for a long time, the Falcon 9 was like, just seemed like it was so susceptible to upper winds.
00:07:13
And I remember like, it just seemed like it was always scrubbing 'cause it's like, yeah, upper winds aren't good today.
00:07:18
And the reason was, and I still don't really know the solution, but the reason was, it's the finest rocket ever produced, finest meaning the finest ratio of width to height.
00:07:27
So because it's so tall and relatively skinny, 3.7 meters wide and 70 meters tall.
00:07:33
So it's ratio is like double or triple that of some other rockets flying.
00:07:37
So therefore, you know, it's basically tall and skinny and can snap like a pencil.
00:07:41
So I don't know what they did to mitigate it, or if it was just increased confidence in their, you know, the reality is with rockets so much stuff can be tweaked in software.
00:07:51
So literally, let's say they just kind of, you know, flew a bunch of times and then they realized, hey, you know what, we could actually let the wind kind of push us around and we'll correct for it after we get through that phase.
00:08:01
And in that way, we don't have to beef the rocket up anymore.
00:08:04
We just kind of let it get tossed around a bit.
00:08:06
We don't stress it anymore by trying to compensate.
00:08:10
We just fly it.
00:08:11
And I mean, I don't, that's an example, but there's so many little things you could, you know, throttle down a little bit more through those sections or something.
00:08:17
There are clever things that people do.
00:08:19
So maybe they just expanded their envelope because I hardly hear of that, you know, especially as Falcon 9 is launching like every three or four days these days, I just, I'm not hearing that as often of like upper level winds.
00:08:30
Let me still hear it sometimes of course, but I feel like maybe it's anecdotally that we used to hear it literally like every, every launch almost, it was crazy.
00:08:39
But yeah, those are kind of the big ones, you know, that you have other considerations with weather and things like tribal electrification, which is how much static discharge the rocket has as it's ascending, you know, metal does a good job of discharging static,
00:08:52
just naturally, especially like stainless steel, something highly conductive, but like rockets that are fully carbon composite on the other hand struggle quite a bit with this because they can build up static electricity and that can be really,
00:09:06
really bad.
00:09:06
So they have to use normally like some kind of paint or gloss or something, you know, a clear coat to reduce and allow it to have proper static discharge.
00:09:16
Or I don't exactly know, this is one that I've been kind of studied a little more, but my understanding is that a carbon composite, that's a big thing that they had to figure out.
00:09:24
Rocket Lab was kind of one of the first ones to really get into the weeds there because they're the first company to fully succeed in a fully carbon composite over-class rocket.
00:09:35
So kudos to them, that was very, very cool.
00:09:37
Yeah, so that's kind of the weather thing.
00:09:42
This is a topic that I can probably get way more into someday.
00:09:44
But, you know, I think you look at something like the Soyuz, I think there is just a risk posture involved and you know, again, every company has to kind of set their bounds and their limits and their thresholds.
00:09:55
And yeah, like Soyuz launches with no visibility and in horrible snow often.
00:10:01
And that doesn't necessarily mean that it's bad weather conditions, it looks bad, it looks crazy.
00:10:07
But you know, it does seem like they launched that thing just whenever, like they don't know what a weather constrain is, I feel like almost.
00:10:14
And again, I don't know if that's a difference in program management, a difference in hardware, is it actually that much beefier and made like a tank, you know, kind of in my head, like the Soyuz is like this like beefy tank of a rocket and realistically,
00:10:28
no, it's thin and you know, relatively high performing.
00:10:32
Actually, it's considering how like primitive its engines are and primitive so many of its things are.
00:10:37
It's almost higher performing than it deserves to be.
00:10:39
Well, I guess that again is taking up a teeny, teeny, teeny tiny little capsule.
00:10:44
So, I guess that's why.
00:10:46
But I still, I'm still fond of that thing.
00:10:49
It's ridiculous.
00:10:50
So, you know, it has totally different constraints and totally different considerations than any other rocket flying.
00:10:55
And yeah, to each their own, I guess.
00:10:58
Yeah, again, that's not something that I know a ton about.
00:10:59
There's everything that I do know.
00:11:02
(laughs)
00:11:03
All right, so the next question, we kind of get into a string of questions that are a little bit related.
00:11:08
This one, and so those first two, by the way, people just use #spacewalkpodcast and we found it there.
00:11:16
We didn't, you know, so make sure if you have a question to use #spacewalkpodcast anywhere.
00:11:22
Even if it's like under, say you see a news article, and they're like, just tag me, just, hey, hey Tim, you know, hey, at every day astronaut, I want you to talk about this on #spacewalkpodcast.
00:11:31
And, you know, if we see it, I'll be taking a look every week.
00:11:34
You know, I'll pull it up.
00:11:36
So, this one comes from Billy J.
00:11:37
Bryant on Discord as saying, "Hot take, where does Blue Origin fit "in the emerging world of Artemis and HLS?
00:11:44
"How do they make an impact on space exploration "at this point in history?"
00:11:48
And while we're at it, I'm kind of gonna, kind of wrap a few of these together 'cause they are about ULA and Blue Origin.
00:11:54
Larry McCatchen on Patreon says, "Basically, what are your thoughts "on the idea of Blue Origin buying ULA?
00:12:05
"Would it be good for the space industry and Douglas?
00:12:08
"Igui, sorry if I totally, totally just ruined that."
00:12:13
What does the future of ULA look like?
00:12:15
How much work was done on the fence, all this is different.
00:12:18
But yeah, what does the future of ULA look like?
00:12:20
So, yeah, we'll kind of talk about ULA and Blue Origin, that relationship for a little bit.
00:12:24
And then we'll wrap that into the first bit, asked about Artemis.
00:12:28
So, we'll finish with an Artemis question.
00:12:30
And there's my segues.
00:12:32
Now you see how I'm wrapping this together.
00:12:34
So, basically, okay.
00:12:35
And so, by the way, thanks to Larry and Douglas and Billy for all being Patreon members.
00:12:41
Thank you very much.
00:12:42
And be sure, if you are a supporter on X or Patreon or Twitter or YouTube or whatever, wherever, if you are a supporter, I will be putting a link every week or every episode soliciting questions.
00:12:54
So, be sure and get your questions in there because I do look at that first.
00:12:57
So, that's gonna be where I always pull from every episode as a supporter question.
00:13:01
So, okay, so let's talk.
00:13:03
Let's talk, yeah.
00:13:05
So, basically, Blue Origin is in a really interesting position.
00:13:09
They put themselves in an extremely interesting position.
00:13:14
So, let's first talk about that relationship.
00:13:17
So, the biggest thing that's crazy with that relationship is that ULA, in my opinion, this is purely my opinion, I don't hope I'm not disparaging anyone at ULA.
00:13:27
I love the company, love, I know a lot of people that work there, fantastic people, hardworking people.
00:13:33
But they kind of really do themselves a disservice when they purchase the BE4 engine for Vulcan.
00:13:42
The reason I say that is the longer that engine took, the more at risk they put themselves.
00:13:49
And the longer they, like literally every single year that Vulcan was not flying, ended up being an opportunity for New Glenn to get closer and closer to operational.
00:14:00
And New Glenn is obviously owned by Blue Origin, relies on those same BE4 engines, so you can kind of see where if the BE4 engines aren't ready, oh, guess what?
00:14:11
The, you know, the New Glenn vehicle continues progress, continues to progress, continues to evolve and mature.
00:14:17
And Bob's drunk on XC, you know, by the time the BE4 is ready, oh, look, New Glenn's right around the corner too.
00:14:24
So, it kind of is a thing of like, man, that, I mean, I don't think there's, I don't think there's anything nefarious about it at all.
00:14:30
Like, I'm Blue Origin inside either.
00:14:32
They're just trying to get that engine ready.
00:14:33
They want it to be ready.
00:14:35
They want it to be flying.
00:14:36
They, you know, wanted New Glenn to be flying forever.
00:14:39
They wanted Volkan to be flying forever.
00:14:41
But it just so happens that engine development is hard.
00:14:44
And this is extremely important to remember.
00:14:47
There are a few exceptions throughout history, you know, like F1 and stuff.
00:14:50
But basically, any engine you've ever seen fly, whatever target the company first said, you have to double it, at least two or three times the timeline is just simply what it takes.
00:15:01
No one, and that might be getting better as we collectively, the world, we, humanity gets better at developing rocket engines.
00:15:10
That time might be reducing.
00:15:11
We have better software, better models, better hardware, blah, blah, blah.
00:15:15
But the reality is, like, people say, yeah, we'll have a, you know, we'll first test fire an engine in one year from now.
00:15:22
And it takes two.
00:15:23
And that's just what it takes.
00:15:25
And then to, you know, from test firing to actually getting it certified and ready to go, you know, that can go from, you know, yeah, that'll be in two years.
00:15:33
We'll have this thing certified.
00:15:35
And it takes four.
00:15:36
And that's just simply the reality of the aerospace industry.
00:15:40
And that's pretty much across the board.
00:15:41
Not just engines like everything, everything, just double it.
00:15:45
When I hate, I hear so many people like, you know, always lambasting, in particular Elon, because he always throws out schedules.
00:15:52
He's throwing out schedules too often.
00:15:56
So it's really easy to pin him down on this.
00:15:57
But people are like, yeah, he said we're going to be on Mars by now.
00:16:01
In 2016, he said we'll be there by 2024.
00:16:03
Okay, well, if you're smart, you would have doubled it.
00:16:07
He would have said 16 years from that point, you know, 2032 or whatever.
00:16:11
And the reality is every program, look at any program.
00:16:15
You know, Starliner, SLS, those are both Boeing.
00:16:20
But literally anything, neutron, you know, space shuttle.
00:16:24
I mean, everything just takes longer than you think.
00:16:27
And it's roughly double.
00:16:28
So whenever you hear an estimate of time, just do yourself a favor.
00:16:32
Don't get too caught up on it, double it.
00:16:35
And that's just simply my rule of thumb.
00:16:38
So the reality is though, or we're going to have a loud traffic.
00:16:41
Sorry, this is the beauty of spacewalk is.
00:16:43
There you go, okay, so the reality is, Blue Origin has set themselves up really nice at this point.
00:16:53
Vulcan and ULA, I think, did everything they could with their kind of where they were at when they made the decision to make Vulcan, you know, in 2014, they were really hoping to have Vulcan online a lot sooner.
00:17:05
You know, they were hoping to have it online.
00:17:07
If I remember right, I remember hearing it was going to fly in 2018.
00:17:11
Maybe even 2017, but I remember listening to them announced, you know, their new vehicle and blah, blah, blah.
00:17:18
And I'm pretty sure it's like three or four years away.
00:17:21
And like I said, double or triple that is what you need to do.
00:17:25
And at the time when they were developing and beginning to actually solidify the designs for Vulcan, it still looked like a viable launcher.
00:17:34
And frankly, today it still is an extremely high performing rocket.
00:17:39
There are very few rockets that can actually do some of the missions that Vulcan is capable of.
00:17:44
And it actually does at a surprisingly competitive price.
00:17:47
But the caveat here is that that competitive price is likely, you know, somewhat subsidized and/or, you know, space extras undercut themselves and undersells themselves.
00:17:59
Or I mean, overweight.
00:18:00
They charge what they can, we'll say.
00:18:02
And they could easily undercut more if they needed to.
00:18:04
There's just a lot more meat on the bones when you're using a reusable booster.
00:18:11
But Vulcan, to me, you know, I think I don't think it's going to win too many commercial contracts outside of what it's already signed.
00:18:20
I don't think it's going to win too many more, you know, I don't think it's really going to be flying too much beyond what it's already slated to fly.
00:18:27
I think it's highly likely, actually, that Blue Origin buys them.
00:18:32
I think that makes sense because they could-- there's a lot of things that ULA probably has and does and teams and talent that ULA has currently that would be beneficial to Blue Origin.
00:18:43
Blue Origin could soak up all those contracts, bring them all in house, run them all under one roof.
00:18:48
And I think that makes a lot of sense to me.
00:18:53
I wouldn't be too shocked if that is what ends up happening.
00:18:55
And yeah, I don't know.
00:18:59
I feel like-- yeah.
00:19:02
And I feel like Vulcan will still fly because there's a handful of missions.
00:19:06
It's going to be a long time before they actually get New Glenn ramped up to be able to do the constellations and things they need to do with New Glenn.
00:19:14
So realistically, yeah, I actually do think that buying that-- if Blue Origin were to buy ULA, it actually would make a lot of sense for both,
00:19:24
honestly, because that's the other part.
00:19:26
It's like, I honestly don't know what ULA does after this.
00:19:28
They spent so much time and money in R&D building a rocket that I hate to call it obsolete.
00:19:35
I don't want to call it obsolete in the sense that it is competitive.
00:19:39
It is highly a high-performing rocket, but I just really don't see it surviving in a starship world.
00:19:45
And whether or not we get the full starship world that we're hoping to get, that's still up in the air, of course.
00:19:52
But if that comes, if we get the fully reusable, rapidly reusable starship, and it costs $10 million to launch, that thing, no.
00:20:01
Vulkan's not surviving in that economy, period.
00:20:04
So yeah, I think it's good, because I don't think-- I don't think you can pivot at this point.
00:20:09
I think the engine reusability thing is smart, because those are expensive engines.
00:20:14
But they got to get to it.
00:20:17
They got to get to it if they want any chance to really compete in this marketplace.
00:20:24
And so on that mark of like, what's Blue Origin going to do?
00:20:26
Are they too late?
00:20:28
Absolutely not.
00:20:28
So it's so funny, because I hear this about Blue Origin.
00:20:31
But yet, so many people will look at like-- for instance, when RocketLab started developing Neutron, people were like, yes, finally, they're working on a bigger rocket so they can finally compete.
00:20:42
Well, RocketLab-- and I love RocketLab, by the way.
00:20:44
This is absolutely not a dig to RocketLab.
00:20:46
I think they're doing as much as they can with their funding.
00:20:51
They're building a Falcon 9 competitor, right?
00:20:53
The Neutron.
00:20:54
By the time Neutron's online, Falcon 9 will probably be beginning the end of its phase.
00:21:01
Like the beginning of the end might be like 5 or 10 years.
00:21:04
You know, I'm not talking like, phasing it out immediately.
00:21:06
But we're looking at, again, if the startup economy is real, and that stuff all flushes out, Falcon 9 itself will be extremely obsolete.
00:21:16
And therefore, its competitors will be obsolete.
00:21:19
And Neutron is a Falcon 9 competitor, through and through.
00:21:22
It seems like a very compelling one.
00:21:24
But it's funny that people get so excited about Neutron, like, yes.
00:21:28
But what's funny is Neuglen is actually totally leapfrogging, not only Falcon 9, but it's actually in some ways higher performing than Falcon Heavy, even, and still reusable.
00:21:39
So that's what's nuts is Neuglen is actually a very, very, very big and very powerful rocket.
00:21:47
And it's going from people to see the somewhere world thing that they think, oh, Neutron, Neutron, party trick.
00:21:52
But they forget that, like, Blue Origin was actually working on leapfrogging Falcon 9.
00:21:57
This whole time.
00:21:58
That's been the goal from day one is to beat Falcon 9.
00:22:01
And that's, I think that's important.
00:22:04
Because yes, they're probably going to be ironically.
00:22:06
It's probably going to be going online, within the same few years as Starship, which, again, means SpaceX will basically leapfrog it relatively quickly, most likely, in performance and price.
00:22:17
But they're getting their foot in the door with what will likely be an extremely competitive vehicle.
00:22:25
And they have some huge plans.
00:22:27
They, not only are they building, of course, a lunar lander for the Artemis program, they also are doing, you know, they're working on their orbital reef, their orbital space station.
00:22:39
I mean, there's a lot of thing, and they're also working on internet constellation, like everybody.
00:22:44
But there's a lot of things that Blue Origin is working on that.
00:22:46
They're kind of in their own lane.
00:22:48
And I just think people are very focused on SpaceX.
00:22:54
And they just see what SpaceX has done.
00:22:55
And it almost feels like, well, there's no room for anybody else.
00:22:58
And frankly, that's a horrible thing, because I don't want just a monopoly in space.
00:23:02
I want as many options as there are in case something happens, and anything can happen all the time.
00:23:08
So it's always nice to have backups and alternatives.
00:23:12
But the reality is, yeah, Blue Origin is kind of doing a lot of things on their own, like in their own way.
00:23:17
And they're blending what feels like to me a very traditional aerospace approach with a fast and modern-- it might not seem fast, but I think behind the scenes is a lot more agile and a lot more new space than it may appear.
00:23:31
We just don't see it.
00:23:32
So that's kind of where it's frustrating that we, you know, as a fan base that we don't get to necessarily see all the things, although they are getting way more open about it.
00:23:41
And yeah, I'm really excited when New Glenn Flys is going to be awesome.
00:23:46
And I think we're all in for a nice treat.
00:23:50
And if they land the first one, like it'll be insane, right?
00:23:52
Like we all need to just absolutely call that for what it is from a tiny sub-worldle booster to landing a huge orbital class booster.
00:24:02
I mean, the booster itself is massive.
00:24:04
The booster itself is like, you know, almost the size of super heavy.
00:24:07
Like it's huge.
00:24:08
It's way up there.
00:24:10
It's so much bigger than people I think realize.
00:24:12
It's-- yeah, it's going to be impressive.
00:24:16
So Blue Origin, I'm extremely hopeful for.
00:24:18
They have funding, obviously.
00:24:20
They have infrastructure.
00:24:22
That's the other thing.
00:24:23
Like they have what Starbase is working on becoming right now.
00:24:26
And they've had it for a long time.
00:24:28
And they're starting to finally utilize it.
00:24:29
They're finally starting to utilize the manufacturing capabilities that they built.
00:24:33
So it has a lot of potential.
00:24:35
And that makes me excited.
00:24:37
Again, I don't want a monopoly.
00:24:40
Yeah.
00:24:41
So there's just kind of my thoughts on that.
00:24:43
I'm trying to keep this relatively quick.
00:24:46
And lastly, just kind of round this whole thing out, we talked about Artemis a little bit.
00:24:49
But Dave on Patreon just says, what if Starship really does become 10 or 100, or 1,000 times cheaper than anything else?
00:24:57
And a couple of years, again, the Starship economy, we were talking about.
00:24:59
And the way this really ties together-- perfect segue-- could that affect the Artemis program or SLS?
00:25:07
So I think realistically, SLS isn't going to wear for the next handful.
00:25:13
Any hardware that's being built today is safe.
00:25:17
There are contracts, of course, from a lot more hardware for the Artemis program with SLS A and Orion.
00:25:22
But I do it is still at risk, slight risk, of being canceled if SpaceX gets H to the Moon for way cheaper than 1 SLS launch,
00:25:34
which I hope that's the case.
00:25:36
And if they have the ability to just literally send a crew, basically to prove out, hey, we could still launch with Dragon.
00:25:44
We could do a commercial crew launch with just people on Dragon like normal, get them up into lower orbit, and then use a Starship Tug that basically is just sending people to and from the Moon or to and from the human landing system or whatever.
00:25:59
Of course, to me, I don't care who you are.
00:26:02
It's still a point in Congress.
00:26:03
They're going to go, hey, wait, how much does it cost to ride on this thing versus that thing?
00:26:08
Why aren't we doing this one?
00:26:09
And I mean, that might be 10 years from now.
00:26:12
It might be a long time before that really-- Congress and slow moving, just kind of the way politics works, especially with spaceflight and contracts, is man, it has to slap them across the face a lot before anything changes.
00:26:25
They're going to have to see Falcon 9 had a hard time just even getting any government contracts for a long time because it wasn't really like certified for that.
00:26:35
And they had an uphill battle.
00:26:37
And it wasn't until they're just absolutely proving themselves with a reliable track record and a lower price point.
00:26:43
That finally, they're like, oh, all right.
00:26:45
And now it's like they're winning everything.
00:26:46
They're like the default because now they've proven it.
00:26:49
I think it'd be the same type of thing here.
00:26:51
At some point, dear Moon would be a real clincher.
00:26:55
If they're sending humans around the moon on a rocket that a single person could send 12 or 10 people around the moon, cheaper-- 100 times cheaper,
00:27:05
10 times cheaper, whatever than that's the less than a Ryan.
00:27:08
And in luxury, then that might wake some people up.
00:27:11
That might go, wait, wait, wait, wait.
00:27:13
They can already do this.
00:27:14
Like, we don't have to invest in it.
00:27:16
We can just purchase a ticket.
00:27:18
That might be what it really does change the game.
00:27:22
That might be, of course, a ways out.
00:27:25
And it would have to-- yeah.
00:27:26
So yes, I do think right now the risk is almost zero because I don't think anyone's going to change their mind based on promises or ideas or concepts.
00:27:37
It'll have to be proven out with a real track record and a real price before it changes any minds.
00:27:43
And it has to be substantial.
00:27:45
I can't just be like, yeah, this one is a little cheaper because there's going to be a lot of lobbying to keep the Artemis program an SLS and a Ryan safe from any changes.
00:27:54
So it'll have to be like substantial.
00:27:57
So that's kind of my micro rant there about kind of the Artemis program.
00:28:03
But realistically-- like I said, it just might be a long time.
00:28:08
So that's-- yeah.
00:28:10
That's going to do it for this Spacewalk podcast.
00:28:12
Again, I hope that you guys-- remember, you can find this thing anywhere.
00:28:15
If you're listening on YouTube, you can find it on any of your podcast readers.
00:28:18
If you're on a podcast, you're actually like to have YouTube up.
00:28:21
We do some slight little bit of graphics, just like a picture inside a TV like when you're talking about things.
00:28:28
So if you do want that, make sure and subscribe to the YouTube channel as well.
00:28:32
But otherwise, yeah, if you are a supporter, thank you so much for your support.
00:28:35
And we hope to get to as many of your questions as possible.
00:28:38
If you want to support the work I do, the best way is probably to Patreon still-- patreon.com/everydayastronaut.
00:28:44
Or if you're an ex-subscriber or a YouTube member, we'll also be pulling questions from there.
00:28:51
But again, even if you're just listening, that's plenty of support.
00:28:55
Just give me a thumbs up, a five-star review, or whatever star review you think is fair on any podcast reader, and be sure to use #SpacewalkPodcast.
00:29:03
And we'll maybe be able to find your questions, too.
00:29:06
Well, that's it for round two.
00:29:09
Hope you guys are enjoying these.
00:29:10
Please let me know if you have any suggestions and any other thoughts on these episodes.
00:29:14
But yeah, that's going to do it for me.
00:29:17
I'm Tim Dodd, the Everyday Astro.
00:29:19
I hope you join me on my next Spacewalk.
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