The expended edition of this podcast is 80 minutes long. We're sorry, if we had more time, we'd make a shorter podcast.

• 0:00 - 27:30 NRF Big Show Recap
• 27:30 - 59:00 Recap of 2024 Predictions
• 59:00 - 80:00 2025 Predictions

Watch a complete recap of NRF Big Show 2025 here

2024 Predictions Recap

Jason:

1. Retail Media Networks go In-store. At least 1 top 20 retailer launches a digital in-store ad network YES
2. AI is even hotter at end of 2024 than now. Most text boxes in E-Com are GenAI powered. A least one retailer has an AI based auto-replenishment solution with significant adoption. YES
3. Bifurcation drives at least two more retail bankruptcies, including 1 national specialty retailer, and one general merchandise/dept store. (two top 50 retailers) YES
4. China companies focus more on West and get more traction. Shein successful IPO. Temu US gets to at least 75% of target US E-Com. No
5. Grocery E-Commerce goes from $95B to $125B in 2024 (after being down in 2023 per Bricks meets clicks). No

Jason Score: 3.0

Scot:

1. Amazon relaunches Alexa on a native LLM No
2. Temu falters as people realize it’s wish 2.0 No
3. RMN is currently $52b, growing 20% y/y, accelerates in 24 to 30% and $67b (coresight has the 52 datapoint) No
4. Instacart who’s stock IPO’d at $33 and now is $23, solves ads and pops to 40 YES
5. While everyone thinks Shein/Temu takes share from Amazon, they end up hurting Nordstrom, Macys and Target instead - materially (10%+) focus on apparel, maybe take target out? Yes

Scot Score: 2.0

In a rare upset victory, Jason takes the 2024 predictions crown! But can he keep it?

2025 Predictions

Jason:

1. Shein & Temu are NOT impacted by changes to De Minimus (which either don’t happen or are ineffective). They ay be impacted by Tik Top Shops and/or Trade War tarrifs but not by changes to De Minimus.
2. Tik Tok is not permanently banned in US (prediction made before scheduled ban was to take place). Tik Tok Shops is fastest growing $1B+ retailer in 2025.
3. A major auto manufacturer launches a DTC offering in the US in 2025 (other than Tesla).
4. Retail Media Networks undergo consolidation in 2025 as smaller retailers realize they can't go it alone.
5. Live-streaming/VR/Voice Commerce are all materially insignificant in 2025. No financial evidence that consumers care about green or purpose driven brand with their wallets.

Bonus: - AI Agents hottest trend in commerce (but I don’t know how to measure it)

Scot:

1. Facebook acquires eBay puts them out of their misery finally
2. Temu loses its newness/out of the honeymoon period and people realize it’s a gimmick - down 20% in 25 vs. 24, even more with tariffs
3. AI agents become a double edge sword for retailers (headless/composable) vs. no ux, I predict 10 large retailers block them, but the rest embrace
4. Marketplaces have a new leg of expansion into a variety of places even an LLM - let’s call it 5 new larger retailers
5. Personalization is out, memory is in, but still silo’d - 

Bonus: AI automates and optimizes the supply chain in ways we humans can’t, or at least analyzes the data in such a way -OR could be quantum computing.

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Episode 323 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 23rd, 2025.

Jason:
[0:23 ] Welcome to the Json and Scott show this is episode 323 being recorded on Thursday January 23rd that's a lot of 2 threes I'm your host Jason retail gee Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo.

Scot:
[0:37 ] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners for episode 323 being recorded on 123, Jason you are in the post honeymoon phase of the NRF Big Show 1 of my and I'll have to be honest with listeners kind of not favorite shows because it's in New York during January and I'm allergic to cold weather and I always have a hard time getting there and out because of the snow and then also it's a show that's over weekend so it kind of crushes the whole work life balance thing so hope you had a fun 1 I was not I did not attend this year.

Jason:
[1:14 ] Very often it's over a holiday weekend it's like.

Scot:
[1:17 ] And yeah so in the holiday weekend as well for for fun yeah.

Jason:
[1:20 ] Yeah yeah I think for as long as I can remember we've been going to that show and complaining about it and the the the usual answer is of course due to its 114 year old show we're not changing it because you're whining um, which fair enough, I will point out good news for you Scott global warming it doesn't snow in New York anymore so it hasn't it was cold but like there there used to be an annual blizzard and they literally haven't had any snow in like the last 3 years which is a little spooky, um and I have great news for you if if you thought it was a lot to go to 1 in RF a year guess what we get this year.

Scot:
[1:57 ] 2 nrf's.

Jason:
[1:58 ] 3 NRF or depending on how you count 4 NS.

Scot:
[2:02 ] Whoa are they going to call them Big Show small show Medium show.

Jason:
[2:05 ] No so for a while they've had so they have a few other shows so they have the NRF Big Show which is what we're talking about in in New York in January 114 years old 40,000 people at 10 mostly Brazilians, they've had what I'll call the small show which is technically now called NRF Nexus it's had some other names in the past that's in Southern California in the summer and I really like that show I'll be I'll be at that show, I'll I'll be doing a number of gigs there and I encourage people to go there because it's a way better boondoggle we all hang out and eat good food on the beach and, in his way less stressful than than in our Big Show.

Scot:
[2:41 ] I can sign up for that yeah that's uh no blizzards sign me up.

Jason:
[2:45 ] Trono in Rancho Palo Verdes it's a good it's a good spot it's where Rico started.

Scot:<