Discover每天五分鐘EP368「手氣來了」是真的?熱手效應背後的心理陷阱
EP368「手氣來了」是真的?熱手效應背後的心理陷阱

EP368「手氣來了」是真的?熱手效應背後的心理陷阱

Update: 2025-07-22
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你知道嗎?連續投進幾球就會進入「手感來了」的狀態,這叫「熱手效應」;而認為連輸5次接下來應該會贏,這是「賭徒謬誤」。

這兩種思考看似合理,其實都可能讓我們做出錯誤的判斷。這集用生活化方式帶你看懂兩個經典心理學效應,還能預防你掉進賭博陷阱或投資錯誤!



📚 參考文獻整理

Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985). The hot hand in basketball. Cognitive Psychology, 17(3), 295–314.



Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76(2), 105–110.



Miller, J. B., & Sanjurjo, A. (2018). Surprised by the hot hand fallacy. Econometrica, 86(6), 2019–2047.



Csikszentmihalyi, M. (1990). Flow The Psychology of Optimal Experience. Harper & Row.

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EP368「手氣來了」是真的?熱手效應背後的心理陷阱

EP368「手氣來了」是真的?熱手效應背後的心理陷阱

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