Executive Summary - Oil & Gas Journal 2018 Upstream Outlook with Joe Perino
Description
Thanks for listening to the EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network.
What is the 2018 Outlook for Global Crude Supply Demand Balance and Crude Price?
This Drill Down episode gives an executive summary of the February 2nd,2018 Oil & Gas Journal ( The Journal ) webcast discussing the global crude supply-demand outlook, and the impact on crude price. We welcome back Joe Perino to this podcast.
We do not cover the extensive amount of data presented in the webcast. You can access all the details in the January 2018 issue of the Journal, or on their website.
We do present updates to the Journal team observations since the webcast, and some of the business drivers behind the data -The so-called words behind the music!
Topics and Time Stamps:
Introduction to the Journal webcast
[01:35 ] Joe Perino summarizes the Crude Supply outlook, presented by Bob Tippee
[05:00 ] Joe Perino discusses the potential risks to Crude Supply
[07:25 ] Marty Stetzer summarizes Market Demand, presented by Dr. Conglin Xu
[09:17 ] Marty Stetzer presents the Crude Price and Brent WTI Spread history
[11:20 ] Marty Stetzer presents the 2018 Crude Price Forecast and Models
[13:10 ] Summary and updates since the webcast – Price Volatility continues
Relevant Links:
Innovations in the Digital Oilfield with Joe Perino
Related Episodes:
HPI Downstream Investment Outlook 2018 – Executive Summary
EKTi Oil 101: Introduction to Upstream Oil & Gas
About the Experts
Marty Stetzer
In parallel with his 25-year energy career, Marty has over 15 years experience in providing custom digital training programs to a variety of oil and gas technical audiences like EKT Interactive Oil 101.
Marty has been a consultant to U.S. and international oil and gas
companies since 1986, including 13 years with PriceWaterhouseCoopers.
He has 18 years management experience with Schlumberger, Superior Oil-Mobil, Wilson Industries and Exxon.
Marty has worked with numerous national and international oil and gas company managements to help improve business performance across upstream, midstream and downstream operations.
Like many of the team, Marty is active in the Society of Petroleum Engineers and often presents at industry forums.
Joe Perino
Joe brings over 40 years of experience in upstream, midstream and downstream. He has worked in engineering, maintenance, sales, marketing and business development, and technical, IT and management consulting.
Joe started his career with Diamond Shamrock as a process engineer, then spend 20 years with process automation and supply chain technology suppliers Emerson, Honeywell and i2, before joining the consulting ranks with IBM, Logica North America, KBC Advanced Technologies, and Schlumberger Business Consulting.
Joe was involved early on with the Digital Oilfield concept and has consulted on production efficiency and effectiveness improvements for KOC, Pemex, Petrobras, Sonangol and Statoil, and was a member of the Shell Smart Fields and Chevron iFields teams while at Schlumberger.
Today he focuses on using technology to improve the business as Digital Oilfield (DO) has evolved into technology-enabled Operational Excellence and now sees IoT, Big Data and Analytics as the next step in the evolution in DO. He works with several firms as a content contributor, in business development and as a podcaster on EKT Interactive, Inc. Joe holds an B.S. in Chemical Engineering from the University of Notre Dame and an M.S. in Finance from the University of Houston. He has also completed executive education at Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management and Harvard Business School. He is active in the AIChE, ISA, COS, NOIA, OESI, SPE and Oil Council.
Links:
HPI Downstream Outlook Webinar
3 Publications Oil and Gas Industry Execs Count On
Sponsors:
EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network
Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry
Transcript:
Marty:
Hi everyone. Welcome to the Drill Down with Marty Stetzer. This podcast is part of our EKTI oil and gas learning network, brought to you by Oil 101, our free introduction on how the oil and gas industry works.
Today you'll hear our sixteen-minute executive summary of the recent Oil & Gas Journal Forecast and Review webinar, held on February 2nd, 2018. Two editors presented and eighty-minute global outlook for crude oil supply, market demand, and a crude price forecast for 2018.
Note that our Downstream Outlook podcast summary from Hydrocarbon Processing is already published on our website.
Today I'm again joined by Joe Perino, a long-time friend and industry veteran. You've heard Joe's popular Sound-off series on our website.
Marty: Joe – Welcome.
Joe: Thanks Marty. Nice to be here.
Marty:
Note that we will not try to cover or repeat the extensive amount of data presented in the webinar in our podcast today. You can access all the details in the January 2108 issue of the Journal, or on their website.
We will present updates to the Journal team observations since February 2nd, and some of the business drivers behind the data… The so-called words behind the music!
Joe, why don't you start off
Joe:
A key webinar presenter was Bob Tippee, now the Chief Editor of the Oil and Gas Journal, and a widely recognized senior industry expert.
In Bob's opinion, supply management by both OPEC and Russia has been crucial to balancing the oil market in 2017. It's really extraordinary in terms of the degree of compliance and the duration of the production agreements, which have already been extended through 2018.
OPEC's historic cartel activity usually dies of its own success. As prices rise, the supply restraint usually gives way to cheating – but not so far. Furthermore, the market knows that there is plenty of crude supply at least through 2020.
Another factor in the supply equation is the explosive level of US shale oil activity. Historically, when OPEC would restrain production, the supply response had to go through a long and costly exploration cycle. Now, US producers respond to higher prices as quickly as it takes to find a rig, drill, and complete a well. As we saw in 2017, when prices neared the $50 per barrel mark, US drilling came back strong. And this is not to mention the backlog of several thousand DUCs (drilled but not completed wells) still remaining.
Today, a big question is whether tight oil production can keep growing. Many experts think the production growth is surprising – but it’s been real. The US rig count grew 43% in 2017, with the Permian Basin leading US
United States
