Exploring SPX and VIX at Market Tops
Update: 2025-08-13
Description
Thus market measure explores the relationship between S&P 500 (SPX) and VIX at market tops. Analysis of 35 years of data revealed that 8% of all trading days since 1990 saw the SPX at all-time highs, with two distinct periods of significant occurrences: 1990-2000 and 2014-present.
During these market peaks, the median VIX typically runs about four points lower than on regular trading days, with a median of 13.4 across the 30-year period. Since 2014, the median VIX at market highs dropped to 12.8, despite elevated post-COVID volatility.
Interestingly, current market conditions appear unusual, with the VIX trading higher than historical patterns would suggest at market peaks. The S&P was up 14 handles during this discussion, with volatility remaining bid.
During these market peaks, the median VIX typically runs about four points lower than on regular trading days, with a median of 13.4 across the 30-year period. Since 2014, the median VIX at market highs dropped to 12.8, despite elevated post-COVID volatility.
Interestingly, current market conditions appear unusual, with the VIX trading higher than historical patterns would suggest at market peaks. The S&P was up 14 handles during this discussion, with volatility remaining bid.
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