A tastylive market analysis reveals that extreme market movements often lead to counter-trend moves the following day, challenging the "trend is your friend" adage. After examining 10 years of data across 40 tickers, researchers found that following a two standard deviation upward move, markets show a 58% probability of reversing downward the next day a significant shift from the normal 45% probability.

The asymmetry is notable: 74% of studied tickers demonstrated mean reversion after substantial rallies, while only 58% bounced after major declines. Apple shows a particularly strong 15% tendency to fade after rallies, prompting Tom Sosnoff to immediately sell Apple stock during the segment based on its recent extreme upward movement.

The findings support a contrarian approach rather than momentum trading, though researchers caution that position sizing should reflect the speculative nature of these probabilities.