Federal Court Ruling Threatens Prediction Markets
Update: 2025-11-26
Description
Federal Court Ruling Threatens to Upend Prediction Markets National ExpansionA recent federal court decision in Nevada has cast doubt on prediction markets ability to operate nationwide under federal registration, potentially leading to a state-by-state compliance battle. The court ruled that contracts based on sports outcomes are not considered swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, removing the federal shield these markets relied upon. This has caused concern among licensed gaming companies and led to a potential appeal by Kalshi, a prediction market platform. The outcome of this appeal will determine whether the federal Commodity Exchange Act can broadly cover these outcome-based contracts.
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