Finding the Best with Uncertainty
Update: 2025-08-20
Description
Jacob presents the "best choice problem" (formerly called the secretary problem) - a mathematical framework for making optimal decisions with incomplete information. The model suggests rejecting the first 37% of options to maximize chances of selecting the best candidate. However, if seeking "good enough" rather than perfect outcomes, rejecting just the square root of total options is optimal.
For traders, this translates to using historical data to evaluate current opportunities without knowing future outcomes. Rather than endlessly seeking perfect setups, elimination processes and contextual evaluation of trade performance can lead to better decision-making and capital deployment.
For traders, this translates to using historical data to evaluate current opportunities without knowing future outcomes. Rather than endlessly seeking perfect setups, elimination processes and contextual evaluation of trade performance can lead to better decision-making and capital deployment.
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