Fourth Turning?

Fourth Turning?

Update: 2025-10-08
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Don and Tom kick off this episode with a satirical bang—mocking the apocalyptic tone of a MarketWatch article about the “Fourth Turning,” a cyclical doom prophecy claiming America faces a cataclysmic reset every 80–100 years. Citing wars, depressions, and now AI, wealth taxes, and the fall of the dollar, the hosts break down the fatalistic tone, expose the fear-marketing behind it, and reassure listeners that, historically, markets have recovered—and rewarded long-term investors.


0:04 Faux alien warning: the Fourth Turning economic apocalypse is coming


1:16 Dissecting the MarketWatch article and the “Fourth Turning” theory


2:26 Peak catastrophe by 2030? AI job loss, collapsing dollar, wealth taxes


3:38 Don asks: what is this guy selling? Spoiler: $100M wealth club


6:01 $180k to join R360—clearly not for the average listener


6:33 Don’s “financial flinch reflex” PSA spoof (ad)


7:41 Tom: “We love being scared”—AI panic and deepfake video fears


9:07 Caller Sue (68): Ready to retire with $820k and SS? Don says yes


13:05 Sue’s next step: get a fiduciary checkup, maybe run Monte Carlo


14:10 Tom runs one: 50th percentile = she hits zero at 98


15:32 Flexible withdrawal rates might work better than rigid 4%


16:34 Listener voicemail: Should we switch from Roth to Traditional now?


18:16 DT’s Roth vs. traditional strategy: save taxes while you can


20:14 WSJ article on taxes and stock gains—do ETFs instead


21:25 Tax basics for investors: capital gains rates and efficiency


23:26 Mad Men nostalgia and mid-century tax rates


25:15 TV detour: Bewitched vs. I Dream of Jeannie vs. Outlander


27:10 Back to calls: Theodore asks about 403(b) options in Burlington


29:10 Don explodes: garbage annuity vendors dominate the plan


31:01 Aspire is the only halfway-decent vendor… if you avoid their advisors


33:54 Don tells how an Albuquerque teacher got Vanguard into their plan


35:44 Aspire hack: use FundSource for no-load mutual funds


36:14 Caller Steve: hold 20 stocks or sell and rebalance?


37:53 Tom: hybrid approach. Don: depends on need. Watch tax bracket

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Fourth Turning?

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Don McDonald