Deep Dive into How Might Russia End Its Invasion of Ukraine? Mapping Four Possible Scenarios

The end of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will not likely be marked by a single event, but by a convergence of military, political, and international pressures that compel Moscow to halt its active offensive operations. This convergence is driven by three main factors: battlefield realities, domestic political dynamics, and the wider international environment. For the invasion to stop, this combination must make continuing the war a greater threat to the Russian regime's survival than accepting an imperfect peace.

The possible outcomes for halting the invasion fall into four distinct scenarios. Two of these are considered more plausible in the near term because they demand fewer public admissions of failure from Russia. The first is a Negotiated Freeze on Current or Near-Current Lines, where a ceasefire or armistice is established, hardening the front lines roughly where they stand. Russia continues to occupy Ukrainian territory, leading to a state of "no war, no peace" which risks becoming highly unstable, often referred to as "Minsk 3.0." The second plausible scenario is a Forced Halt by Military and Economic Attrition. Here, the invasion slows and stops because Russia runs up against hard material limits in manpower, equipment, and money, forcing it to cease large advances.

The third scenario, a Negotiated Peace with Significant Russian Withdrawal, is the most demanding, requiring Russia to actively reverse its gains, potentially returning to pre-February 2022 lines or even addressing territories seized since 2014. This is the most costly option for the Russian leadership but offers the clearest foundation for lasting peace.

The fourth scenario, an Internal Political Shock in Russia, such as a "palace coup" or elite reshuffle, functions as a catalyst. This disruption could fundamentally alter the leadership's calculus, accelerating a shift toward either a negotiated freeze or a substantial withdrawal as a means of restoring internal stability.

Ultimately, the active invasion is halted when military frustration, rising domestic risk, and international pressure—including sustained Western aid and effective sanctions—converge to force Russia to accept some stabilized status quo.

Reformed Theologian GPT: https://chat.openai.com/g/g-XXwzX1gnv-reformed-theologian

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