In Leo’s diplomatic approach to Nicaragua, timing will be key
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Pope Leo XIV received Bishop Rolando Álvarez in a Nov. 13 audience, marking the first meeting between the bishop — who spent more than a year in Nicaraguan prisons on conspiracy charges — and the new pope.
The audience comes two months after the pope received three other exiled Nicaraguan bishops at the Vatican.
The string of recent meetings has prompted speculation about whether the Vatican is starting to shift its approach to the country, in which the Church has been almost completely silenced by ongoing regime persecution.
Taking a new diplomatic direction could prove tricky. Statements criticizing the government have consistently led to spikes in persecution, leading Catholic leaders both in Nicaragua and in Rome to largely go quiet in recent years.
And if Leo is interested in engaging with the regime – for example, by reestablishing a diplomatic presence in the country – he may find himself limited by government demands for veto power over future bishop appointments.
Ultimately, the pope may determine that the question before him is not whether to act in Nicaragua, but when.
Under Pope Francis, the Holy See initially adopted a posture of strategic silence during the 2018–2019 protests in Nicaragua that sparked the current persecution, leaving most public commentary to the local episcopate.
The silence was interrupted by occasional statements of criticism over the years – for example, when Francis compared Nicaraguan dictator Daniel Ortega to Hitler and said he was an “unstable” man in a 2023 interview.
The pope also offered periodic signs of support to the Nicaraguan Church, such as the appointment of Bishop Rolando Álvarez as a delegate to the second session of the synod on synodality in 2024.
But these statements were few and generally vague. When Pope Francis wrote a pastoral letter to the people of Nicaragua in 2024, he made just a passing mention of the human rights situation in the country.
The regime’s reaction to any gesture from Rome has been consistent: more arrests, more exiles, and more pressure.
At this point, the Church in Nicaragua has entered a near-total blackout.
Half the country’s bishops are now in exile. Entire religious congregations have been driven out of the country. Twenty percent of priests have fled or been expelled. Those who remain have ceased public criticism of the regime. Critical comments in homilies, religious processions, prayers for the persecuted, and even contact with exiled priests or bishops can be treated as potential treason or conspiracy.
Various Vatican sources told The Pillar that communications between Nicaragua’s remaining bishops and Rome have collapsed.
“Many [exiled] bishops were pretty much ruling their dioceses from abroad but that’s not the case anymore. The regime spies on priests and anyone who’s texting or talking with bishops or priests in exile is eventually also exiled, so there’s basically no communication between the Church in the country and the rest of the Latin American bishops or the Vatican,” a source told The Pillar.
“The bishops are not coming to the Vatican, are not going to CELAM [the bishops’ conference of Latin America] meetings or to celebrations in other Central American countries because they’re afraid that once they leave the country they won’t be allowed to return,” another source said.
The communication vacuum means the Vatican has almost no reliable information about conditions inside the country.
Many in the Vatican believe that Pope Leo’s first priority with regards to Nicaragua should be reestablishing diplomatic representation in the country. The country’s nuncio was expelled in 2022.
“Getting a Vatican official on the ground should come before anything else. We’re far from getting a nuncio again, but we need someone in Nicaragua, we need to restore communication,” a Vatican official told The Pillar. “We need that before anything else because right now we don’t know the situation in the country well.”
But doing so might require a kind of compromise which the Vatican does not seem keen on accepting.
If Rome wants even a minimal diplomatic presence restored in Nicaragua, the regime is likely to demand a say over episcopal appointments. The government is widely believed to be pushing for the appointment of regime-friendly priests, as well as regime supporter Bishop René Sándigo of León, to fill vacancies.
Earlier this year, the government released a statement arguing that “nothing authorizes the Vatican State, which must follow the rules of International Law and respect national governments and institutions, to make any kind of appointments in the sovereign territory of our Nicaragua.”
The statement has led to expectations that the government may refuse to recognize future episcopal appointments in the country, demanding regime approval and veto power over the naming of new bishops, in exchange for some lessening of government pressure on and expulsion of local clerics and Church institutions.
This could lead to a scenario similar to that of China, with the Nicaraguan government starting its own regime-approved parallel Catholic Church, something that the Vatican wants to avoid at all costs.
As a result, Pope Leo may find that his cards are limited. If he hopes to avoid both a worsening of persecution in the country and a repeat of the Church’s situation in China, his best option, for now, may be to wait.
Nicaraguan dictator Daniel Ortega just turned 80, and his public appearances have become more rare, leading to speculation about his health.
His wife and “co-president” Rosario Murillo is presumed to be his successor. Murillo is widely perceived to be more radical in her approach to the Church than Ortega, but she is not well-liked by many within the dictatorship’s inner circle. It is possible that there may be instability when she takes power, and the potential for the rise of a different leader.
Vatican officials told The Pillar they believe a transition of power could create a brief window for dialogue with the Church.
The approach is risky, due to Murillo’s hardline position, and the fact that the country’s bishops are aging and several sees already have vacancies.
But there are not many other options for the Vatican to buy some goodwill from the regime in order to restore episcopal and diplomatic normalcy. And any public statement quickly makes the situation worse for Nicaraguan Catholics.
Leo may find that however much he wants to change course in Nicaragua, the most effective option may simply be waiting for a change in power.
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