“The valuation of the Nasdaq Composite… as a factor of GDP is at the highest ever. The highest valuation of stocks in history,” warns Bert Dohmen, founder of Dohmen Capital Research and publisher of the Wellington Letter. In this interview, he calls it “the most risky time in the markets and geopolitics,” pointing to unprecedented speculation fueled by Fed-driven liquidity. Dohmen cautions against complacency: “Speculation is insane as we have seldom seen it. Margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange is now over $1 trillion… imagine when the margin calls go out and Wall Street starts foreclosing houses.” Drawing from his decades of experience, Dohmen highlights his theory of credit and liquidity: “All you have to know to see if the market is going to go up or down—you look at the trend of liquidity and credit. When they’re contracting, the stock market will go down. When they’re expanding, the stock market goes up.” When asked where investors can still find safety, Dohmen doesn’t hesitate: “The one sector that we like and have been in is gold and silver, because they will retain their purchasing power.”

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