Market Analysis: Why Gold Fails as a Reliable Portfolio Hedge
Update: 2025-08-26
Description
Hosts Nick and Tony examined gold's correlation patterns with stocks and bonds, revealing that despite gold trading near record highs alongside market peaks, the 20-year correlation with S&P 500 sits at exactly zero. Current correlation stands at -0.25 (essentially uncorrelated), with five-year and 12-month averages of 0.13 and 0.12 respectively, all indicating minimal relationship. Even during major crises like 2008 and 2020, correlations remained low, challenging the belief that gold provides reliable downside protection.
The analysis extended to gold-bond relationships, finding surprisingly weak correlation (0.07) during the 2008 crisis, contradicting assumptions about both assets serving as safe havens. Nick emphasized that true portfolio diversification comes from position sizing and strategy diversification rather than asset class mixing, since "when they sell assets, they sell assets" regardless of traditional classifications.
The analysis extended to gold-bond relationships, finding surprisingly weak correlation (0.07) during the 2008 crisis, contradicting assumptions about both assets serving as safe havens. Nick emphasized that true portfolio diversification comes from position sizing and strategy diversification rather than asset class mixing, since "when they sell assets, they sell assets" regardless of traditional classifications.
Comments
In Channel